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POLL: AP-Ipsos National (4/30-5/4)


AP-Ipsos

National
755 RV, 514 RV Dems/Dem-Leaners

Clinton 47, Obama 40
Obama 46, McCain 42... Clinton 47, McCain 42

 

Comments
Jacob S:

I have a theory: since 514 out of 755 say they are Democrats, massive numbers of Republicans are misrepresenting themselves to pollsters and claiming that they are Democratic voters who support Clinton.

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nktol:

Don't know about your theory, but it seems like many Obama supporters are so head over heel for the guy that they can't deal with anything other than him leading / winning??? Just be objective about things, even if you are favoring one POLITICIAN over others, doesn't mean you have to gamble your emotion and independent mind over an unknown commodity (that speaks for all politicians), until it's proven otherwise.

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Shadar:

No way does Clinton beat Obama by 7 while at the same time Obama beats McCain by only 1 less than Clinton. If Obama is that far behind Clinton based on the demographics of the poll then Obama is gonna be behind McCain as well or tied.

Not to mention the 755 RV of which 514 are Dem/Dem-Leaning. I don't buy that for a second. Unless they were only calling expected Dem households intentionally going for Dems... in which case the McCain numbers are way off.

I would believe a poll might find Hillary up by 7 over Obama or that Obama/McCain Hillary/McCain turn out as they do in this poll... I just don't buy it in the same poll. Something fishy is going on here.

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Pat:

@Jacob S:

This has been my theory as well. Since the Republican contests wrapped up before OH and TX, I just don't believe the integrity of the democratic contests any more. If you look at Clinton's support in all recent primaries, she does very well in Republican counties. I think she will win IN because of those chaos creating Republicans.

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jsh1120:

Not sure where you guys learned arithmetic, but the 514 Dem/Dem Leaning has to include respondents that aren't registered voters. The Rep/Rep Leaning total alone is over 300.

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Nickberry:

Quit the conspiracy theories... This is just a poll of random people.

First, note that the proportion of Democrats and Democrat-leaners to Republicans is consistent with other polling... which is good for the Democratic Party candidate in the general election.

Next, according to exit polls Republicans are voting for both Hillary and Obama in the open caucuses and primaries. In fact, Obama gets more Republican votes than Hillary, whereas "Democrat only" (No Republicans, no Independents) almost always favors Hillary.

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