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POLL: ARG Florida, New Hampshire


American Research Group
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Florida (7/19-21/08; 600 LV, 4%)
McCain 47, Obama 45

New Hampshire (7/19-21/08; 600 LV, 4%)
Obama 47, McCain 45

 

Comments
Tybo:

the numbers are 47/45 for each state, with a different candidate in the lead.. yet the electorial map gives one state a leaning, and the other a toss-up..

lol, still some kinks to work out.

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m finesod:

McCain is an EASY 10 15 point victor in Florida. McCain won the state fairly easily while Obama was trounced by 28 points by Hillary Clinton. Florida will be the easiest state for McCain in this election. Anything south of Virginia is safely Mcain. New Hampshire, on the other hand, is one of the 5 key swing states ie Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado and New Mexico. All other states are accounted for.

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carl29:

The party composition of this poll is totally in sinc with the UNH poll. Almost the same amount of democrats and republicans, so no problem with party ID, and the rest of voters all independents. In both polls Obama leads McCain among independents which are going to be the battleground in every state as well. Since there is equal % of rep. and dem. in the state, whoever wins the independent vote in New Hampshire will carry the state.

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carl29:

With regards to Florida: I think my state is a tough cookie. First, it is a southern state, so race is an issue for those whites in the pandhale area. Second, the great majority of hispanics, who live is South Florida, are cubans, and therefore, republicans. I think that Barack have better chances in a state like Virginia than in a state like Florida.

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Undecided:

The June ARG poll for New Hampshire (Obama 51-McCain 39). Now McCain trails by only two points.

The June ARG poll for Florida (Obama 49-44). Now McCain is in the lead by two points.

But in a temporal context, both of last months polls were just after the Democratic Primary... so the higher numbers for Obama (June 13-17) could have been a "bounce."


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axt113:

Florida is going to be a close call, no way McCain wins by 10 to 15 points finesod, you're comparing apples to oranges if you compare the primary results, this race will be within five points, and within Obama's grasp

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onelightonvoice:

Wow, there are still dimwits who try to equate primary results with general results. Is this someone's first election? Awww, that's sooo cute!!

btw, arg "results" bounce everywhere. Just take a look at their polls throughout this year. I think they use some sort of fusion method that is a combination of "pin the tail on the donkey" and a magic 8 ball.


carl - Your state will be influenced most by new registration and turnout. that is what will make fools out of many of the posters here and the "pundits" that think this race is even close.

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onelightonvoice:

Some proof of the fictional "close race"-


http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1825337,00.html

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carl29:

The downside about ARG is that it doesn't show previous polls so I cannot find the demographic and party composition of its June poll. This particular ARG poll in New Hampshire is totally on page with UNH poll regarding party ID. I don't know that much about UNH, but it seemed to have been in agreement with other two pollsters in the previous wave of polls from the state at the end of April. I think that it will be great to see other pollsters. I think that Rasmussen or maybe Dartmouth college could put out a poll soon.

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onelightonvoice:

carl - with regard to party id - this will be an election where party id will play an important role in the outcome. The ads detailing the idiotic 8 years of republican rule aren't even out yet. Just wait until voters are reminded daily of who f*cked us for 8 years. Think many of them will vote Repub after that?

Party id is what distorts these polls considerably. It will not be 50/50 in most states. That is a certainty.

Florida, interestingly enough, has a ridiculous number of unregistered AAs and young people. That alone will turn Florida if the volunteers do a good job of turning them out.


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Paul:

June ARG showed Obama +5. Without this poll, 538 had snapshot and projection at McCain +4 (leans GOP). RCP has McCain +2.2 and state as toss-up. Pollster.com has McCain +1.3 and state as toss-up. Conventional wisdom has had FL as a GOP state. Question as to whether Obama will spend serious resources here, perhaps diverting McCain effort from states like Ohio and Colorado.

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Paul:

As to NH, ARG in June had Obama +12, now +2. 538 has snapshot and projection as Obama +2 (leans DEM). RCP has Obama +3.7 and state as toss-up. Pollster.com has Obama +7 and leaning DEM. McCain has been popular in New Hampshire. Obama may have to spend resources here to maintain whatever lead he may have to make sure he picks up the three electoral votes. In terms of states with between 3 and 5 electoral votes, which are in play, Obama needs at least one from NH, ND and NV and he needs to maintain all Kerry states as a start point.

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m finesod:

Florida is a HEAVY Republican State. The close vote in 2000 was close only because, at that time, the Panhandle of Florida had more important matters, to them, than voting for the President. The panhandle was having a devistating drought and numerous wild fires to deal with. In 2004, this was proven out as the Republican won by more than half a million votes. The Democrats thought the could win the Senate seat over Jeb Bush....they lost by 23%. Florida is clearly not an in play state for the Dems.
New Hampshire, on the other hand has always been close, but always ends up going Dem. I believe this will probably be the case again.

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