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POLL: ARG Florida Primary


A new American Research Group Florida survey (conducted 1/20 through 1/21) finds:

  • 600 Likely Democratic Primary Voters (± 4%)

    59 Clinton
    21 Obama
    14 Edwards
    1 Kucinich
    0 Gravel
    5 Undecided
  • 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters (± 4%)

    29 McCain
    22 Romney
    17 Huckabee
    16 Giuliani
    6 Thompson
    6 Paul
    1 Keyes
    3 Undecided

 

Comments
Adam:

Why are they even polling the Democrats? Didn't Florida lose its delegates by moving the election before Feb. 5?

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C.S.Strowbridge:

Florida will still matter, even in the unlikely event that they don't seat any delegates at the convention.

Whoever wins there will get a boost going into Super Duper Mega Awesome Tuesday.

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Adam:

Did Clinton get a boost from Michigan? I think not...

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Bryan :

Clinton was the only name on the ballot in Michigan (I believe), so it's no suprise she didn't get a boost. But in Florida, all the Democratic candidates are on the ballot.

It will be interesting to see what happens...

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Andrew:

I think pollster should post an analysis of how likely Florida delegates are to be seated.
We need to know if we should or shouldn't care about Florida polls.

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As always, depends on how the media spins it. My guess is it will be like Michigan, all of the coverage will focus on the Republican side, and it won't provide much of a boost. But who knows? The media obsesses over the strangest things...

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I am hopeful that those six percentage points voting for Thompson do not accrue to McCain.

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Douglas H.:

I think Florida and Michigan Demo votes do count, even without momentum. Although they won't be useful in an attempt to build a straight majority of delegates, the eventual nominee would be insane not to insist that they be seated. I think - though I don't know - that they would then be able to influence other issues, such as platform.

Also, just because winnners haven't repeated yet very much doesn't mean momentum is completely dead. IA, NH, SC, MI, and NV are dramatically different from each other demographically. And winners have shown an uptick in the succeeding state; just not enough to win. Still matters, though, in proportional states.

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Becky:

The Republicans had all of the states that moved ahead stripped of HALF delegates,so they are all very relevant in the delegate race.The democrats lost ALL delegates for FL and MI.For the democrats it has really coming down to a tight race for delegates,and I don't think winning states with none will do anything for boosting them.FL also has a winner take all system for the Republicans,so even with half it's still an important state.Hope that this helped some with the confusion.

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