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POLL: ARG, Gallup Daily Tracking


American Research Group

National
Obama 47, Clinton 45... McCain 54, Huckabee 31

Gallup Daily Tracking

National
Obama 46, Clinton 45... McCain 51, Huckabee 29

 

Comments
Norman Hsu:

It is going to be incredibly tough for Hillary in Texas. The polls show a remarkable upward swing in Texas for Obama, but not so much in Ohio. I think she should concentrate on Ohio and hope the counts from Columbus get lost somewhere.

Normal momentum can be stopped. But Obama is no Dukakis. He has Obamentum, which is like an avalanche at this point. Hillary would probably have an easier time stopping a runaway freight train with a broom.

At this point her best bet is to either go negative (real negative - not that lame "he didn't debate me" nonsense) and also spread as many slanderous, fictious e-mails as possible - you know the kind that mention barack's middle name and say he is a covert muslim terrorist. Other than that, I see no chance of her winning.

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James Hudgins:

I am a Goldwater Conservative, and thus like
none of the candidates on either ticket, but
I would just like to say that Hilary will
probably have less states, less delegates, and
less popular votes, but if it gets to the
convention before it is decided (for sure) then the nomination will be stolen for Hilary by the Clinton Machine. They are the masters of dirty politics.
Jeh

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RS:

Gallup says "Interviewing conducted on Wednesday night... no immediately substantial pick-up by Obama..."
In the immortal words of President Clinton - the bump always comes on the second day!
Interestingly, ARG shows Senator Obama trailing Senator Clinton only 44-49 among women!

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Tony Rezko:

"The polls show a remarkable upward swing in Texas for Obama"

Norman, can you show me this poll? I've not seen a recent Texas poll that shows this swing.

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Otto:

Rasmussen had Obama up 46-41 yesterday and today it's 49-37 for Obama so the bump is there. Also look at rasmussen Colorado and Nevada where McCain beats Hillary by large margins but Obama beats McCain by large margins

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Shane:

* Clinton 48% (46%)
* Obama 38% (28%)
* Gravel 3% (0%)
* Undecided 10% (8%)

Thats the newest Texas poll I can find. Thats from polling done at the end of January. Only a ten point lead BEFORE Super Tuesday / February sweeps / and Obama campaigning! On top of this, the rules of the Texas primacaucus favor Obama pretty strongly. I'm starting to think Obama could win more delegates than Clinton in Texas.. if so... goodbye Clinton.

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Norman Hsu:

Tony,

Go to pollster.com. Click on Tex Dem link in middle of page. Open your eyes, and view page. In late 2007, Obama went on an unbelievable 45 degree upswing while Clinton went on a horrendous 30 degree downswing. Now, extrapolate that out to today - and/or Mar 4. It is over Tony. Please try to get your money back from Billary. In fact, demand your money back - stop payment on a check or do a chargeback on your credit card.....something. This one is ovaah! Why? Cause Oprah is singin'.

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Tony Rezko:

Using the IVR polls as your only guide is dubious "proof" of a bounce Norman. I would want to see polls like SUSA, Rasmussen, etc. No one thought it would go this long, so they have not done polls there. I will say that though Ohio should be safely Hillary, Texas will be close. I would guess Hillary wins +6 there (those are Obama's projections anyway, leaked on purpose by his team to downplay expectations), but struggles to gain more delegates due to their funky system of a hybrid primary/caucus.

"Now, extrapolate that out to today - and/or Mar 4"

Obviously, your PhD is not in math or statistics Norman! You cannot extrapolate that out to today. Extrapolation is rather dangerous, statistically speaking.

Additionally, I am glad you support the candidate of Moveon.org and Oprah. Two worthless entities in one.

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George Soros:

"Rasmussen had Obama up 46-41 yesterday and today it's 49-37 for Obama so the bump is there."

Where? Nationally? State level? Are you guys just making stuff up now like typical liberals?

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Matt:

James Hudgins - What does "masters of dirty politics" even mean? Care to provide examples?

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Alan P.:

The Rasmussen polls that Otto was referring to are national. I imagine they'll be posted on this site shortly, along with their Ohio poll, which shows Clinton ahead there 51-37. I'm a little puzzled by the lack of any recent polling in Texas, given how important that race is becoming for both candidates.

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Norman Hsu:

Don't get mad, Tony. Well, I guess you should be a little mad, considering all your hard earned money you sent to Billary is now.......down the drain. Ooops, did weee do that??? Sorry about that there, guy. You should have bought a yacht instead.

Anyhoo, good luck winning Texas or Ohio. Oh wait, these are "red" states that don't mean anything in the general election anyway, remember?? ROTFLMAO! Wow, you guys are DELUSIONAL! You can't stop it Tony, you can't even try to contain it.

The PEOPLE are deciding they don't want Monica Lewinsky's boyfriend's wife running the country. Why would they? She voted for a bogus war, couldn't get health care passed in the 90's, and is just plain dull & ineffective. And who wants slick Willy running around the White House again?

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Cade:

A vote for Hillary now is a vote for McCain in November.

Look it up, Obama trounces McCain ...RIGHT NOW! Most of the USA hasn't even heard him in person! It will be a landslide in November if Obama is there.

If Hillary steals this somehow, McCain will beat the shizits out of her and Bill since the conservatives will come out in full force.

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some guy named Stanley:

Alan P - I'm no expert, but perhaps the lack of polling in Texas reflects the sheer size and diversity of the state? It must be awful complicated to try to get a "representative" sampling in a place like that. With so many polls being off by so much already this year, maybe it's not worth the trouble?

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Norman Hsu:

Hey Tony,

I'm glad that you are backing a CRIER!! HAHAHAA! Every time she gets challenged, she CRIES!! LOL!!

What's she going to do when she has negotiations with Iran or North Korea?!?!? Oh please (sniff sniff) please don't make nukes anymore, please don't attack us, waaaaaaaaa (sob sob)! Pleaaase?

ROTFLMMFAO!!

In the words of slick Willy, "Gimme a break!"

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David :

Good one Norman. Too funny! I'm wiping tears away myself ! *sob* *sob*

Hillary talks about "experience" because she was in the White House when Bill was there. Well, I think Monica may have had a little more proximity to Bill during those years. Maybe Monica should run! YEAH - Monica in 2016 everyone!!

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Adam:

You all are free to disagree as much as you'd like, but I'd rather appreciate it if you did it as if you were talking to the person face to face. The internet provides the buffer of anonymity which apparently leads people to act like children.

While I personally have no problems with people stating their support for a given candidate, do we really want pollster.com to turn into this? Please, if you wouldn't mind, express your opinions, but also act your age (which I presume to be >= 18).

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The General:

Ah, I love the smell of Democratic disunity in the morning. Your party will be in ruins if Billary wins on Mar 4 and drags this to the convention.

Imagine a party fighting over to elect a worthless and inexperienced Senator versus another worthless and corrupt Seantor (Billary). It's TFF!!!

Your party is in shambles. Half of you like Dumbo the Muslim terrorist. The other half prefer Billary-lets-have-another 9/11. Both candidates don't add up to half of John McCain in experience, dignity, war credentials, climate change policy, or honor/valor.

So please, keep the infighting going. Us moderate GOP guys love the smell of the elitist defeat-o-crats in a civil war.

McCain/Romney 08

It's just that simple ladies and girls.

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Abe:

"Dumbo the Muslim terrorist. The other half prefer Billary-lets-have-another 9/11."

Wow, the comments section of Pollster has gone down hill quickly.

Did "The General" mention dignity in that same post?

Wow. I hope you're in charge of public relations for a Republican somewhere ... just convinced me to give $100 to Obama through Moveon.org
-----
Also, has anyone noticed that "George Soros" and "Tony Rezko" are posting together (w/in 10 minutes)? I doubt there is a honest Hillary supporter who talks like that - if you're going to pretend to be a Democrat, you've got to do a little better.

Unity ticket sounds good to me, Obama / HRC (or Janet Napolitano - voted in on Public Finance for her ideas rather then fundraising)
----
As for Texas: Obama's internals show him losing by a few points, but those leaked numbers a about a week old now and likely leaked to lower expectations. Makes sense, with 8 wins at over 20% each he's not getting much press because everyone expected it.

Let's stay positive folks, things are looking up and either of these Democrats can beat McCain especially now that he's trending to the right (I couldn't believe he failed to vote against the limited torture methods bill yesterday).

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Phil:

To be fair, Obama supporters aren't being much better - in the Quinnipac thread Norman Hsu and Cade both made word for word identical posts ten minutes apart.

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lenore:

Get a room, guys. I wish you'd rein in your partisan vitriol and let pollster.com go back to being a poll discussion website. I want information, not your feeeelings.

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krassen:

Hillary is setting herself for defeat in November by making the primaries all about experience. She can't match McCain's experience, her words will be thrown viciously back at her in the fall.

The Dems will be wise to make youth/hope/inspiration their theme and nominate Obama. Then it will be a hip and cool Obama vs an old and cranky McCain.

Otherwise, it's the "experienced" Hilary vs the war veteran/Senate doyenne. Let's remember McCain was running for President and giving Bush trouble by the time Hilary was running for her first office. She loses the experience debate hands down.

Cheers,

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tony:

Exactly what polls show an upswing for Obama in Texas?

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tony:

Norman - I just read your "explanation" (rather than links to any polling data on the issue) for why Obama is surging in Texas. Others have already ripped your shallow argument to shreds. So, I'll just leave it alone.

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Tony:

Norman said: "The PEOPLE are deciding they don't want Monica Lewinsky's boyfriend's wife running the country. Why would they? She voted for a bogus war, couldn't get health care passed in the 90's, and is just plain dull & ineffective. And who wants slick Willy running around the White House again?"

HMMMM...Is this what "change," "hope," and "optimism" sounds like? If so, I do not want any of it.

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Tony (not the other Tony):

Norman: I'm glad that you are backing a CRIER!! HAHAHAA! Every time she gets challenged, she CRIES!! LOL!!

What's she going to do when she has negotiations with Iran or North Korea?!?!? Oh please (sniff sniff) please don't make nukes anymore, please don't attack us, waaaaaaaaa (sob sob)! Pleaaase?
ROTFLMMFAO!!
In the words of slick Willy, "Gimme a break!"

WOW -- THE AVERAGE AGE OF OBAMA'S SUPPORTERS REALLY SHINES THROUGH.

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Brad:

I too am disappointed that there aren't more polls for Texas. Second most populous state, therefore presumably the second biggest delegate prize. California (even bigger and just as diverse) has had 21 polls in 2008, New York has had 15, Texas has had 2, and none in February. As a political junkie in Texas I'm thrilled we actually matter for once. I'm considering finding blue ink to dye my finger on election day. It feels like we've been watching the American presidential race from another country up until now. I just saw my first presidential political ad on TV EVER since I moved back to Texas (24 years). So why no polling?

BTW there are very few white Democratic voters in Texas, the ones that are here are mostly transplants from other states. Hispanics have for the past few decades been apathetic and fractured, but reports are that they're starting to rally behind Hillary, in part because of her experience decades ago registering voters in San Antonio and the Lower Rio Grande Valley. It matters because Hispanics will be the majority race/ethnic group in Texas within a generation, so knowing their political preferences will become increasingly important. Sure would be nice if we had some polling data to tell us the facts...

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Liberal Chris:

The pledged delegate math is awful for Clinton at this point. She doesn't just need to win Ohio, texas and pennsylvania, she needs to win by 18 or 20 percent. Otherwise, she will still be behind in pledged delegates by the convention. As John Lewis's switch today attests, the superdelegates simply will not undo the pledged delegates. It ain't gonna happen.

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Breecer:

Poor Tony, you seem to have a defect in your cognitive abilities. You obviously didn't major in Math or Statistics either.

The polls have been wrong time and time again this election, and rarely in favor of Clinton (New Hampshire). They have failed to show the huge bump Obama seems to get the day of the elections. Since you have nothing else to do, go look at the last poll in every state before their respective primary/caucus. Now, compare that to what the vote actually was. Hmmmmm, see a pattern, genius?

People don't want to see Billary on the News every night. They want to see a LEADER, a true visionary who can inspire people to be better than what they would normally be.

Now, with superdelegates leaving her camp and switching to Obama's or retracting their endorsement, well, the writing is on the wall. Check the news today, Obama just got two HUGE Labor Unions to endorse him.

You can't stop it Billary, you can't even hope to contain it. It is OVER! Period.

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Diggs:

Wow, all of you are obnoxious as hell and reflect extremely poorly on each of your chosen candidates.

This is hardly the quality of discourse that I'd expect on a site devoted to rational statistical analysis.

But apparently you've got nothing better to do. My advice: Spend a little more of your obviously over-abundant free time developing your ideas before spewing them everywhere.

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David :

My suggestion Tony, would be to see if you can get your hillary campaign donation back. Perhaps you can do a stop payment on your check or a chargeback on your credit card.

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Jon Revere:

I have rarely seen someone "served" as poor Tony was on this board. Yikes, bud, that look like it hurt. Just after Norman predicted an upswing for Obama in Texas, it happened.

Sorry Tony, that had to hurt. Yowsers.

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Francois :

It is depressing to see the low level of comments on this page.
It is even more surprising to see that several people supporting Obama, the candidate for change, the "uniter" stoop so low and spew venom at Hillary supporters. I am sure Obama would be proud of you all.
As someone else said here , maybe you have too much free time. You ought to spend some of it on History. It might teach you a few things.
Then you might understand that Obama, should he actually get the nomination, would not stand a chance against McCain in the general election despite the early meaningless polls 8 months prior to the election ( Remember Dukakis, Gore and Kerry's leads!!!).
I am a life long Democrat, who has never voted Republican in my life. If it is Omam-McCain in the general election, there is no question that I will make personal history and vote Republican. And no it is not racism at all for you crying foul already. Wouldn't you rather have McCain in the White House if the US were attacked? I would, and it is a likely possibility over the next four years. This is not a game. We simply cannot afford on the job training for someone who is completely unprepared for the job. And this election is a job interview, not a popularity or beauty contes..

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Francois :

It is depressing to see the low level of comments on this page.
It is even more surprising to see that several people supporting Obama, the candidate for change, the "uniter" stoop so low and spew venom at Hillary supporters. I am sure Obama would be proud of you all.
As someone else said here , maybe you have too much free time. You ought to spend some of it on History. It might teach you a few things.
Then you might understand that Obama, should he actually get the nomination, would not stand a chance against McCain in the general election despite the early meaningless polls 8 months prior to the election ( Remember Dukakis, Gore and Kerry's leads!!!).
I am a life long Democrat, who has never voted Republican in my life. If it is Omam-McCain in the general election, there is no question that I will make personal history and vote Republican. And no it is not racism at all for you crying foul already. Wouldn't you rather have McCain in the White House if the US were attacked? I would, and it is a likely possibility over the next four years. This is not a game. We simply cannot afford on the job training for someone who is completely unprepared for the job. And this election is a job interview, not a popularity or beauty contes..

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Robert:

I am voting for two people. First, Huckabee. Second, whoever is running against Hitlery.

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