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POLL: ARG Indiana, North Carolina (4/30-5/1)


American Research Group

Indiana
n=600
Clinton 53, Obama 44

North Carolina
n=600
Obama 52, Clinton 41

 

Comments
JR:

I REALLY THINK THIS HAS BEEN MEDIA BUILT UP. I AM NOT A POLITICAL PUNDIT BUT I THINK OBAMA MAY HAVE STARTED TO GET HIS FOOTING BACK.

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Sacks Romana:

I'll stick with the pollster trend numbers for the time being. Obama wins NC by about 14 points which would give him a net delegate lead that ties his delegate defecit from Pennsylvania and losing Indiana by 8.

That would put his pledged delegate lead at about 160 ahead of Clinton with under 220 pledged delegates left to go. Meaning she'd have to win 86-87% of all remaining pledged delegates to tie or take the lead. Which is impossible given the proportional system even if Obama tanks all the remaining primaries (which looks likely with the exception of Oregon).

Clinton only has about 20 more superdelegates at this point than Obama, and I can't imagine her picking up over 50% fo the remaining if she's not the pledged delegate leader. At this point, even if Michigan and Florida were fully counted, with only 2/3's of the uncommitted Michigan delegates going to Obama, he would still maintain a slight delegate lead

Mathematically, this race is over (and I think has been for some time).

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ca-indp:

Ya!! Obama hacks keep on dreaming. A few pts here and there is he is geeting his footing back!!.
LOSER in Nov aka Dukasis, Gore, Kerrey, Obama...

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ca-indp:

Obama is not going to win NC by dbl digits. He is losing ground no mateer what his hacks believe.
Politics is all about perception and if perception is Obama is losing support he is going to lose in Nov.
Mathematical delegate garbage is creation of DNC, for an avg voter, actual # votes matters and the trend is Obama is losing it.

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Nickberry:

Do not blame the media. Look at how the undecided voters are trending toward Hillary. This seems to be the way things go in the few days before the election... albeit maybe sooner this time because of Obama's Wright problem being in the news.

Obama keeps around 50 points in North Carolina but Hillary is gaining.

And in Indiana, Hillary's numbers are also edging up but Obama's remain about the same.

It is the undecided vote closing the gaps.

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mago:

ca-indp

You might want to familiarize yourself with the process by which we choose Presidential nominees in the US. You will be surprised at the importance of mathematical delegate garbage, which I gather is your phrase for the number of delegates.

It may seem shockingly unfair, but delegates are actually the only people who are allowed to vote at the convention.

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ca-indp:

Hey mago,
If DNC wants to use proportional assignment why not calculate it accurately till say 10 decimals so it reflects actual votes!!
How about using real votes number than delagate garbage, instead. I guess More accurate is not good in ur books!!
Just becaue they use it doesn't make it right, it still pile of cr*p.

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illinoisindie:

oh great the troll-bots have returned...we were doing so well over here

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Tybo:

"You might want to familiarize yourself with the process by which we choose Presidential nominees in the US. You will be surprised at the importance of mathematical delegate garbage, which I gather is your phrase for the number of delegates."

Perhaps the democrats should use an electorial style system,perhaps that would keep them from their on-going losing streak.
Reality,instead of this pretending that 7000 caucus attendees in Co. mean something to the General election(GE), or that double voting in Texas will translate to the GE, or that winning Utah means anything at all.

ONly the democrats could come up with a system that nominates the weaker candidate for the GE

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