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POLL: ARG Iowa Caucus


A new American Research Group statewide survey of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 12/26 through 12/28) finds:

  • Among 600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 31%) leads former Sen. John Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama (both at 24%) in a statewide caucus; Sen. Joe Biden and Gov. Bill Richardson both trail at 5%.
  • Among 600 likely Republican caucus goers, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads former Gov. Mike Huckabee (32% to 23%) in a statewide caucus; Sen. John McCain trails at 11%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 7%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Rep. Ron Paul both at 6%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4% for both subgroups.

 

Comments
Paul:

After all the comments on last weeks ARG for Iowa, I am interested in the discussion now. Compared to last weeks ARG: Clinton -3, Obama +5, Edwards +4, Giuliani -8, Romney +12, McCain -6, and Huckabee the same. Compared to where my tracking has the race, I see ARG Clinton as 3 points high, ARG Obama as 6 points low, ARG Edwards as 3 points low, Giuliani as on point, Thompson as 5 points low, Romney as 6 points high, McCain as on point, and Huckabee as 8 points low. Overall in Iowa, I currently have Clinton with slight advantage over Obama who has slight advantage over Edwards; Huckabee as about 5 points over Romney, who is 15 points more than McCain, Thompson and Giuliani, who is 2 points more than Paul. My questions in terms of the recent campaign are (a) whether Huckabee's exposure on lack of knowledge of foreign policy can in a very short time knock him back to the point that he does not win Iowa, (b)is it possible that Huckabee's gaffes will cost him victory and subsequently knock him out after New Hampshire?, and (c) is this exactly what Romney needed?

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Paul:

Have or will Huckabee's gaffes on foreign policy hurt him enough that he now loses Iowa, gets knocked out in New Hampshire, and the race changes dramatically? Or is the issue in Pakistan so complex that voters will be bewildered enough to not factor in his comments after the crisis? In Iowa, I have McCain, Giuliani and Thompson about 15 points behind Romney who I have trailing Huckabee, so I have Iowa as a 2 way race for Republicans, and still a 3 way race for Democrats. I would add that given my understanding that the 15% rule applies only to Democrats, that the refactoring of Biden and Richardson points may be enough of a difference to provide victory for one of the three lead candidates, but which one?

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Tommy Ates, Austin, TX:

After the controversy that erupted when the now infamous Christmas poll was released, ARG is not a credible outfit. I believe this company does not deserve the trust of media outlets and voters. Consistently, the polling results differ from other pollsters and it appears to have a certain bias towards Hillary Clinton. I ask Pollster.com to no longer accept ARG into its polling matrix.

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Anonymous:

Tommy Ates that is ridiculous! ARG has Hillary at 31%, whereas the composite average of the last twenty polls of all pollsters (according to realclearpolitics.com) has her at 29.4%. Putting them less than two percent off the average. That is not a bad poll, it is a good one!

The numbers that are fluctuating are Obama's and Edwards' and that shows neither one of them are the strongest candidate. Lay off ARG, their polls are no worse than any other.

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P. Yaw:

What is the relationship betwen Mr S. Gupta and the ARG? Connect that with Mr Clinton's business relations with Mr Gupta and there is your answer!

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Jen:

Mark Penn must have paid off ARG for this biased poll, he's that shady.

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DTM:

It seems to me the rapid reversal of the trends in this latest ARG poll provides evidence in favor of the hypothesis that there is a holiday effect going on, with the magnitude of the effect basically dependent on proximity to Christmas.

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s4watson:

At this point polls dont matter. but i do know that hillary clinton will not win the iowa caucus! ALL EYES ON YOU IOWA,PLEASE START THE BALL ROLLIN IN A NEW,FRESH DIRECTION!

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Mark:

test

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