American Research Group
Obama 58, Clinton 34
I wouldnt be so sure on this poll, seeing as how they ALL MISSED IT BIG TIME on last Tuesday. People are jumping off the Obama Bandwagon faster than rats on a sinking ship ! Besides, Look at the delegate count in Alabama, Hillary & Obama tied - Also consider that Miss borders ARK in the northern sector of the State & Tenn, Both States which were won by Hillary. To the West you have Louisianna where granted Obama won earlier, but later he stiffed the Black Union meeting in New Orleans. The tide of change has arrived alright but not to Obama's favor.
Posted on March 7, 2008 1:12 PM
The poll was conducted after Texas and Ohio results (Conducted March 5). What's not to be sure about? I think it shows Hillary making some leeway in the state considering people were expecting Obama to be around 65% in this state. I'm sure some more undecideds will go over to Hillary though.
Posted on March 7, 2008 1:22 PM
Insider Advantage has Obama +6 in Mississippi (just released). In Louisiana, Obama was +19 in percent (+12 in delegates). In Alabama, Obama was +14 in percent (+2 in delegates). Arkansas and Tennessee are very different. I would compare Mississippi to Alabama and Louisiana.
Posted on March 7, 2008 1:28 PM
I think the climate of this race is changing so fast - that the pollsters cant keep up. We are seeing evidence of that everywhere.
Posted on March 7, 2008 1:31 PM
Huh? They missed big time? If you look right down that page, you could see ARG, yes ARG of all groups, pretty much nailed both Texas and Ohio at the end. In fact most polls (except for Zogby, who continues to miss wildly on big states) showed the trend toward Hillary as we got closer to Tuesday. So of course the polls will continue to swing back-and-forth with new daily events, but they, especially used together, do give us a snapshot of the current state of things.
Posted on March 7, 2008 1:40 PM
I think this race is and has been changing over the last week so fast - they are not keeping pace.
Mississippi Obama will win by at least 20pts considering over 50% of electorate is AA
He'll also win WY by the same margin
Posted on March 7, 2008 1:42 PM
Oh no Hillary, don't give up on Mississippi! The polls are wrong! We really love you down here after what you said about us! Please come waste your money on us....please? We'll give you many many delegates. Yum yum in your tum tum.
Posted on March 7, 2008 1:43 PM
Mike - No Poll was even close on the few days leading up to (They were earlier in the process) Ohio, Texas & RI . She won Ohio by what, 12 - Texas by 4 in the Primary (where everybody gets to vote) and RI by 18 ! How can you say they were close ? The joke of all of this is that in EVERY State Primary, Caucuses continue to be totally OFF from the Primaries, WHY ? BECAUSE THEY DONT GET ALL THE VOTES REPRESENTED.
Posted on March 7, 2008 1:46 PM
Mike - that was my post at 1:46
Posted on March 7, 2008 1:48 PM
Where the heck do you get these numbers John? She won 2.5% in Texas and 10% in Ohio. The margins of erros for Texas were very close within the polling limits it was estimated to be a +/-2 error. I'm forgetting Ohio's error that Mark estimated so I won't vouch for it.
Posted on March 7, 2008 1:56 PM
John, the poll of polls on March 3rd had Clinton up by about 2 in Texas (she won by 3) and by 8 in Ohio (she won by 10). Pretty close I'd say. Also, if Obama is ahead only because of these terribly unrepresentative caucuses then how do you explain the fact that he has won more primaries and is ahead in the popular vote?
Posted on March 7, 2008 2:04 PM
I guess the Texas poll could stretch but they had Obama on top in most cases in the last day or two - Ohio & RI was clearly off - No Matter, its a new game Now.
Posted on March 7, 2008 2:07 PM
LOL; pollsters couldn�t be screwed up more than in this primary season.
A Mississippi Obama +6 poll by InsiderAdvantage is just out, but thats nonsense because in that poll Obama has 18% of the white vote- absolutely inaccurate.
I still think Obama will win Mississippi by 30 points...
Posted on March 7, 2008 2:09 PM
Im glad you asked Dom,
First off, one poll with Hillary on top does not a consensus make. Now on to the Caucuses, Why is it that less people vote (FACT) in the caucuses and they always show a totally different outcome than the primaries. Case in point, Here in Wash, Obama wins caucus vote by 24 pts - he wins Primary by 5 pts ! Thats a BIG DIFFERENCE. Same in Texas, He won the Caucus by what 8 pts and lost the Primary by nearly 3 pts, ANOTHER BIG DIFFERENCE. Sad thing is this misdirects delegate votes and in States with Only Caucuses & No Primaries - there is no popular vote to count.
Posted on March 7, 2008 2:15 PM
nobody votes in the WA primaries. they dont count for anything. Since Obama supporters tend to be educated and young, they understand the concept of a vote not counting for anything.
sorry if that is too tricky for you.
Posted on March 7, 2008 2:25 PM
I agree with above comments on AA percentages. If you give Obama 85% of AA vote in MS and Hillary 55% of white voters then Obama would win by approx. 27 points. I would bet money that he wins there going away. The only factor would be how many people vote and how much it bumps his lead in the popular vote. My guess is around 300- 400,000 people voting. Id ask John from Spokane to bet money on MS...he'd surely lose.
Posted on March 7, 2008 2:34 PM
John.....put your helmet on kid! You are going to be late.....the short bus is outside waiting to take you to school!
Posted on March 7, 2008 2:41 PM
John, I agree. the caucuses favor Obama. This though does not sidestep the point that he has won more states with primaries and is ahead in the popular vote.
With regard to texas, I was not using the evidence of one poll but rather the poll of polls, that is, the average of ALL polls on
As far as it being a new game, it might be useful for you to look at the numbers more closely. Clinton will need to win 62% of all remaining delegates to move ahead of Obama. This number will likely rise to above 65% by next Wednesday. Considering Arkansas is the only state where she has won by this margin what exactly is her road to the nomination, aside from tearing the party apart and handing the presidency to John McCain?
Posted on March 7, 2008 2:55 PM
I've been out of college for 20 years now. You don't actually believe that all Obama voters are college kids, do you?
Nah, it's just more nastiness from the culture war between Democrats. I have a long list of adult, rational, thought-out reasons for supporting Obama, and nowhere in the top ten reasons does the size of his rallies figure into it.
I won't share those reasons with you, because that would be an exercise in frustration: shouting into the wind.
So I'll go on making volunteer phone calls and discussing topics that matter, with people who are still capable of discourse. You can write off millions of voters, volunteers, and contributors--you can keep calling us college kids (as if there's something wrong about youth or something unwise about education). But this attitude you have won't win the election outside Ohio.
Posted on March 7, 2008 2:57 PM
It is time to share those reasons for voting for Obama....there are people who want to hear about him like myself. I don't know what he did in Illinois, or what his past accomplishments are.....tell me and others....
Posted on March 7, 2008 3:05 PM
I didn't see a consensus of Polls showing Hillary in front prior to Tuesday but if you did I sure would like to see them. Moot point now though.
I dont know exactly what numbers your looking at but I can tell you this, with Michigan & Florida back in the Picture - Hillary has a great chance of winning the nomination with wins in PENN, FL & MI plus attracted Superdelegates which there are abt 300 still out. I dont see Obama being able to swing it, she has totally turned the trend around in this race.
Posted on March 7, 2008 3:07 PM
Who cares about this state? It has 55-60% of AA vote in the primary, it will never, under no circumstances vote democrat in general election. It's one of the poorest states in the country with nothing to offer. Once again the DNC is handing the election to the Republicans by ignoring Florida and Michigan, if Democrats lose both of those, there is no chance for a presidency. Nice going Howard Dean, not only did he loose the last nomination, he will manage to loose this election.
Posted on March 7, 2008 3:13 PM
Posted on March 7, 2008 3:14 PM
Sorry, but I've been having this argument for months (work allowing). And I've been doing my best to volunteer time. But I'm worn out. This has become a culture war, not a discourse. And besides, despite a thick folder I have of word documents with my own writings on this, I don't think I address the issues as well as some.
So, first I recommend that you go to barackobama.com and check out the issues tab and ObamaTV. There are speech transcripts, position papers, and videos of issue speeches online (speeches given on a policy point such as social security rather than rallies). He's done panels on foreign policy that are online too; there's a lot up there (and hopefully the older stuff hasn't rotated out yet because it's also good--such as speeches from the fall and summer).
There are also a lot of blogs churning over the issues (and Obama's record) daily. Some that I find to be intelligent, and to frequently give analyses of Obama's policies: The New Republic blogs, Marc Ambinder's blog, Matthew Yglesias's blog, and the Diatribes of Jay are a few smart, Obama-positive sites. There are lot of others. I find the blogs get into details much, much more than the main stream press does.
But cross-reference. Don't trust any one source or any one spin. The information is all over the internet, but it's just far more than I can summarize here (and now I have to get back to work). For example, if you read Paul Krugman's columns, realize that he's, er, vividly anti-Obama and there are people online who make rebuttals to Krugman's arguments (some from his own newspaper).
Just one achievement from Obama's days in Illinois is the legislation requiring taping of interrogations and confessions as part of due process. This legislation has now spread to four other states and the District of Columbia. It protects the rights of the accused and protects people in law enforcement at the same time. But, Obama had to argue the case strenuously to persuade everyone to act in their own self-interest. My wife works in criminal defense cases, and so I realize how very important this civil rights improvement was.
Posted on March 7, 2008 3:34 PM
John from Spokane- you are so pathetic - keep dreaming dummy. No way in hell Hillary becomes president. or vp.
Posted on March 7, 2008 3:38 PM
Whoever anonymous is, you're pretty tough huh? You should be drug out in the street and shot. Keep hiding behind those words...
Posted on March 7, 2008 4:13 PM
Mathematically, there's no way Clinton can catch up. Obama will win both WY and MS.I'm 33 and a college student doing my masters and I'm Obama supporter and one of those who gave Obama 80% vote. Although, I will vote anyone who wins the DEM nomination, I dont think Clinton has a chance. I dont need the Clintons to tell me Obama lacks experience. I know where to go for info and dont rely on what people say for the sake of politricks. I have read both Clinton and Obama policy statements at their websites and although I dont see much difference in their policies, Obama brings freshness and change to yesteryear's politics and business as usual. Anyway, what experience has Clinton got for being a 1st lady? Do people want to say Laura Bush has foreign policy experience than Obama? This view silly. Ther fact that Obama is very smart, his learning curve is steeper compared to Clinton.
Posted on March 7, 2008 4:43 PM
I believe ARG will be closer once again than all pollsters but I will wait for their last release probably by Monday or Tuesday morning. The door will be shut for the Clintons. Just like jason t, I've gone to both Obama and Clinton websites and other sites for info. The numbers for PA will narrow by end of March. The maths dont favor Clinton. Even if there's a re-run in FL and MI, Obama will win MI and Clinton will win FL and they'll be close.
Posted on March 7, 2008 4:53 PM
Will Michigan be about 50/50 ? If so maybe they can skip the re-election and just give the candidates half of the delegates each.That would save all the hassle.
As for Florida, if at the end of the day a win by Hillary of 70/30 doesn't get her over the top in pledged delegates, then they might as well just use the original tally , and she sytill loses.Once more millions saved on re-election.
Finally, why the news blackout on Hillary being the root cause of Nafta-gate? I thought the media was on the ball abouth the elections,suddenly this happens and it seems FX/CNN haven't reported it. I'm sure all you net - savy are aware, but as an outsider I'm confused about the sudden media blackout?
Posted on March 7, 2008 7:04 PM
Funny, if these numbers are even remotely close to correct, Obama looks to gain about 24 more delegates than Clinton in Mississippi.
For those counting, that'll be _four times_ the amount Clinton gained on her wrongly reported "big win" night last Tuesday. (She gained 6 by current count, though this number could _decrease_ as the TX Caucus numbers continue to come in.)
Watching from the sidelines, with the numbers (votes) continually coming in in Obama's favor almost without exception since Iowa, the fact that Clinton still hasn't conceded at this point in this sports match is simply humorous.
Obama is far ahead in pledged delegates, states won (by well over two to one, 26 to 11 plus 2 ties), and popular vote. What more do people want?
Obama won, Clinton lost, let's accept it so we can all move on to the more important task ahead.
Posted on March 7, 2008 11:01 PM
March 07, 2008
Gallup Daily Tracking
National 3/4 - 3/6
Clinton 48, Obama 44
( winning 3 in a row did wonders for Hillary )
Posted on March 7, 2008 11:51 PM
First of all, At what point did Clinton win three in a row? If by "win" you mean, who "won" more Delegates, which is what this whole primary process is about anyway, then Obama won 12 in a row, up to and including Vermont, then Clinton won RI and OH, and then Obama won TX (admittedly he won TX due to TX's weird primary/caucus system, where she won the primary by 4%, but he the caucus by currently 12% with about 40% of the caucus results in).
Secondly, the fact is that Gallup is showing them statistically tied at this point nationally which could imply a slight bit of momentum for Clinton, as Obama was slightly ahead a week or so ago.
If her gaining 6 delegates, leaving Obama's 150+ lead intact last Tuesday, and her being tied nationally, as opposed to down a couple points, means "wonders for Hillary", now must be a pretty sad time for the Clinton campaign.
No wonder (ha) she's resorting to the typical Clintonian dirty tricks, now implying that voters who like both candidates but choose to vote for her will actually get both of them. Which of course, in reality, is actually not the case. But when has the Clinton campaign cared about reality?
Like I said, sad times for the desperate and dying Clinton campaign.
Let it die and move on.
Posted on March 8, 2008 3:45 AM
This whole obama hype - it's a lot like being sold a TV infomercial product. It's all hyped up to be great and what not and when you come down to the nitty gritty, it doesn't work or function right.
Come on, haven't we had enough of a president who has only had very minimal experience? (*cough* Bush *cough*) What was it they said about him? His frat boy charm? Look at what has happened to our nation!
Would you pick a CEO for a corporation who had minimal experience? If not, why would you do so for the presidency?
But I don't hold out much hope for Mississippi - too many black people there.
Posted on March 9, 2008 1:05 AM
With winner take all Clinton will have 1721 pledged delegates including Florida & Michigan and Obama will have 1142. Obama will be gone by now. Not only that if the electoral vote method is used, Hillay will have 263 votes and Obama 190. Only 270 votes are needed to win.
I do not know why media is not bringing it up.
Posted on March 9, 2008 11:33 AM
This is sooo FUNNY and Hillry is a riot and she is being laughed at in Ireland for saying she helped bring peace there and now this is what they are saying about her wanting Obama as her vice president so funny! "It may be the first time in history that the person who is running number two would offer the person running number one the number two position," Daschle told "Meet the Press." She is DELUSIONAL!
Posted on March 9, 2008 5:06 PM
Sad, just sad. We have a system, somewhat flawed, but a system that can work. We have a delegate threshold of 2025 for a reason. And yes, if it were a winner take all delegate race, than Sen. Clinton would be prevailing over Sen. Obama. However, the sadness derives from the fact that it's no longer about who has the best resume anymore. It's about charisma and color versus gender and perception. Let me share a question and/or point with you for a moment. In all of the years that I HAVE BEEN INVOLVED with this process, I have never once seen the turn out from African Americans that I have seen in this particular election. And that in of itself is fanatastic! My question is this. Where the ---- were you 8 years ago, or even 4 years ago? To vote for a man just because he's black makes about as much sense as voting for a woman just because she's a woman. And you cant tell me its about bringing people together. I was in the last caucus room with all of the other delegates. Unity was anywhere but there. And this whole dog and pony show, for example" you got to believe in change and believe in this campaign, and get on the gravy train" and ya ta ya ta ya ta is a great pitch but nothing more. And don't get me wrong, Sen. Clinton's highschool principal lectures are getting old too. Trying to remind me of this and remind me of that. But it is also true that if you look at just the resumes (that's what I do when I have to hire an additional employee) we all truely know who is better prepared for the job. Please remember the old saying, "life is not a bowl of cherries, and who ever tells that is or can be, is trying to sell you something." The last thing we need is for someone to remind us of whats wrong with our leaders in Washington. If you have to be reminded of that than I would prefer you do some homework be fore you vote. Which is not a bad idea for some of you here as well. It's very easy to get folks to agree with you when all you say is what they already know. It's called commissiration. The hard thing is to convince everyone that it does "take a village" to get it done. And here's the funny, the Obama camp doesnt want us to remember that she wrote that book 14 years ago. Long before Sen. Obama was even apart of any of this. I'm not saying Sen. Obama doesn't mean well and isn't sincere in his intentions. And I'm not saying that Sen. Clinton is the be all to end all. I'm saying regardless of all this rhetoric, just learn to play nice and let all of this play out. Just because we live in a big giant sand box, doesn't mean we have to act like a bunch of big a-- kids. So everyone just dig yourself and try to be an American and instead of just a Democrat or Republican. United we will stand and divided we will fall. And if you think that the boys in the old province of Persia (a.k.a Iraq and Iran) aren't licking their chops right now, think again. They are in fact celebrating Barack's name and his chances and hoping that we will all pull out immediately. Because they will percieve that as a surrender and defeat on our part. And if that happens, and they really start to get brave, you can bet we'll all be apart of history. Just not the history were so quick to boast for.
Posted on March 9, 2008 7:19 PM
It's funny people're now allocating delegates using winner-takes all. The most important thing to consier in any competition is the rules of the game b4 kick-off because game-plans are couched based on the rules. These kinds of thinking are delusional, silly and balderdash to say the least.
Posted on March 10, 2008 1:24 AM
Listen everyone. Hers an example. I've been preaching about homework and reaserch. As a delegate, I have been going over a ton of voting records and attendence records from the floor of the Senate. My vote represents thousands, so its the least I should do. Lets look at one that was very popular. A bill to amend title XXI of the social security act to extend and improve the childrens health insurance program, or otherwise known as H.R. 3963 vote 00401. this vote took place on oct 31st 2007. How do you think Sen. Clinton voted you guessed it YEA. How do you think Sen. Obama voted, well he didn't vote. He wasn't in attendence. He was to busy doing a spot on SNL. this bill was vetoed by Pres. Bush. The fact of the matter is Sen. Obama didn't feel that vote was important enough to show up for. If Congress had enough votes to override that veto, the motion and bill would have been successful. But it didn't. The record DOES speek for itself.
Please do your reaserch. Ask me about any of the candidates voting or attendence records. Really, you would be surprised. I've doen a butload of research, It's my responsibility. Balderdash, great word. Here's one, Dunce
Posted on March 10, 2008 2:01 AM
Hi everyone. When talking about Hillary supporters do not forget that she won Florida and Ohio without AA. And most AA do not dislike her at all they just see the opportunity to elect their candidate. Understandable. In contrast to Spanish, they will not vote for Obama if he is a nominee specially in Florida ( I mean Cuban- they are very angry at Obama, watch Spanish TV). Obama will definitely loose Florida. In case of Ohio, if Obama-McCain ticket will be in November, certainly McCain will win, I am from Ohio and I know more what people think. A lot of white Democrats will go to McCain if Obama is a nominee. At last reading people opinion on the website, I see more Hillary's supporters are willing to vote for McCain if Obama is a nominee. Thus do your math.
Posted on March 10, 2008 5:14 PM
I thought that this was supposed to be a site discussing the polls, and whether they will reflect the election results.
Not very much about Mississippi. In fact much of it is putting down the Democratic voters there. This is more like a sports-blog with a bunch of biased advocates for their "team".
It makes the site utterly worthless to be filled with such babies!
Why not some intelligent questions and comments?
Why do people think the Gallup Poll is so vastly different than the ARG, for example? Why do they think one will better reflect the voting outcome than the other?
Posted on March 10, 2008 7:44 PM
Obama should win Mississippi by 18% or more. However, many Republicans will vote for Hillary because they know she'll be much easier to beat by McCain than Obama. Hillary claims she has experience dating back to the day she was toilet trained. I don't know what experience she claims. She is only a Senator, a position that her husband helped get, as a reward for her debasement by Bill's repeating sexual encounters (Monica Lewinsky, Gennifer Flowers, etc.)
Posted on March 11, 2008 6:22 PM
Posted on March 11, 2008 7:30 PM
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