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POLL: ARG National Primary


A new American Research Group national survey of likely primary voters nationwide (conducted 10/9 through 10/12) finds:

  • Among 600 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (45% to 20%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 13%, Sen. Joe Biden at 5%.
  • Among 600 Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 24%) leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (16%), former Gov. Mitt Romney (15%), and Sen. John McCain (14%) in a national primary; former Gov. Mike Huckabee trails at 6%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

View all National Primary poll data at Pollster.com:

AUSTopDems190.png AUSopReps190.png
Democrats Republicans

 

Comments
Rich B.:

Do any of these National or non-Iowa-or-New Hampshire polls ask about second choices?

If the Republican race, in particular, where no candidate is polling anywhere near 50%, it seems relevant whether Giuliani is not only leading, but is also the Thompson, Romney, McCain, Huckabee, and Paul voter's second choice (and is therefore a huge favorite when whichever preferred candidate drops out after a disappointed Iowa or New Hampshire) or if there is a huge "anyone but Guiliani" contingent that is looking for a challenger, but hasn't decided on which social conservative to back.

I assume the truth is somewhere in the middle, but in a close four-way race, it seems less relevant that Rudy is up by 8% than where the Thompson or Romney or McCain voter will go if his preferred candidate has dropped out before his state's primary.

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