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POLL: ARG Nevada Caucus


A new American Research Group statewide survey of Nevada caucus preferences (conducted 1/9 through 1/14) finds:

  • 600 Likely Democratic Caucus Goers (± 4%)

    35 Clinton
    32 Obama
    25 Edwards
    0 Gravel
    0 Kucinich
    8 Undecided
  • 600 Likely Republican Caucus Goers (± 4%)

    28 Romney
    21 McCain
    13 Thompson
    11 Giuliani
    9 Paul
    8 Huckabee
    0 Hunter
    0 Keyes
    10 Undecided

 

Comments

If Clinton wins here, it will be very tough for Obama to become the nominee. If he places second here and then loses to Clinton in South Carolina, I think he's done for.

If he loses here, he needs to win in South Carolina and Florida or he will be crushed on Super Tuesday.

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G:

I don't think Obama needs Florida, you're wrong about that.

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R:

Particularly since Florida's delegates don't count.

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BDM:

Why would anybody put credence in a ARG POLL.
tHEY HAVE NOT BEEN RIGHT ONCE THIS ELECTION SEASON.

They had the worst record for the IA caucuses this year.

If Obama win's NV and SC then he has the momentum going into Feb. 5th.

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I don't see any polls indicating that Obama's going to lose South Carolina.

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Ben:

We've seen 2 polls. One has Obama ahead and this one has Clinton ahead. Both are within the margin of error. All it tells me is that it is close and the recent racial dispute between Obama and Clinton may benefit Edwards. I think the big thing is you don't want to be the candidate in third in Nevada.

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tom veil:

Interesting to note that the two NV polls feature a mini-New Hampshire problem: Obama's support is stable (32 in both) while Hilary's jumps around (30 vs 35).

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Paul:

Change over the last month in the ARG Nevada poll: Obama +14, Edwards +11, Clinton -5; McCain +14, Thompson +8, Huckabee -15, Giuliani -6.

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Pauly:

Ever since race became an issue I don't see how Obama is going to win the nomination. He will for sure win South Carolina, beyond that I don't see him winning.

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Anonymous:

bs

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