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POLL: ARG New Hampshire Primary


A new American Research Group statewide survey of likely primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted 1/4 through 1/5) finds:

  • Among 600 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton (38% to 26%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 20%.
  • Among 600 likely Republican primary voters, Sen. John McCain leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (39% to 25%) in a statewide primary; former Gov. Mike Huckabe trails at 14%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 7%, Rep. Ron Paul at 6%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4% for each subgroup.

 

Comments
Paul:

ARG has Independents voting in Democratic primary at 37% which is exactly midway between other recent polls (35-40%). Of this number, 49% have stated preference for Obama and only 12% for Clinton. Of Democrats polled, Clinton is ahead only by 2% (34-32). Conclusion - if Obama has this kind of significant advantage among Independents, and if Obama comes close to Clinton among Democrats, and if Independents do come out in Democratic primary at a 35-40% level, then Obama wins in New Hampshire going away. Both candidates have huge fund raising ability and as such this race looks to be two way very shortly and could go on for a long time.

In this ARG poll, the Independent factor in the Republican primary is 27% and McCain defeats Romney significantly among Independents (44-19) and also wins among Republicans (37-27). Conclusion - if McCain wins among both Republicans and Independents, then obviously McCain wins.

Absent from the fray, as in Iowa, is Giuliani. It is interesting to note that in this ARG poll, Huckabee does better among Independents (18%) than among Republicans (12%) and Giuliani is in single digits in both (Independents 4%, Republicans 8%).

It is fascinating to watch what has happened among Republicans (Democrats makes much more sense as all major candidates competed in Iowa). McCain for all intents and purposes bails on Iowa, finishes tied for 3rd with Thompson at 13%, loses to Huckabee by 21 and Romney by 12. He picks up steam in New Hampshire where he campaigns very hard and is known and thought of well, and is helped, one would think, by Romney appearing to be a weakened candidate after the Iowa defeat. McCain's long suit is people like him and he is a media star again. His short suit is money. It seems that if he is still as viable a candidate on Feb 5 as he will be after New Hampshire, then the only way he can compete on Feb 5 is through massive media coverage as opposed to campaign dollars --- will that be enough? Giuliani remains the mystery guest. He has picked up his bat and ball and gone straight to Florida, hoping apparently that most of his competition will have knocked each other out and his field is fairly clear. He complained recently that he has not received enough media coverage --- who should know better than Rudy that if your not in the mix, who is going to pay attention?

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