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POLL: ARG Pennsylvania Dems


American Research Group

Pennsylvania
Obama 45, Clinton 45

 

Comments
steve:

This poll trend is very similar to previous states showing an Obama surge about 2 weeks before the election. In the case of Ohio, Texas, California and other states, Clinton has always been able to bring white voters leaning to Obama back to her camp as election day arrived. Will PA follow the same pattern?

It is tough to analyse the meaning of this poll without regional splits. If Clinton can run up the vote margin in white rural districts, she will win PA with a 15-20 net delegate margin.

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Knute:

The trendlines do look very much like a blend of Texas and Ohio - but we are still 2 weeks out. Obama is likely to further close the gap in the mashup -- which were pretty good predictors for the final results in TX and OH.

If Obama comes even in PA - or goes ahead slightly - we are likely to see the Texas scenario repeat, with some kitchen-sink counter-efforts by the Clinton team (what's left of it), and maybe some Texas-like zig-zags on the graph.

But if Hillary's final margin is in the low single digits, the PA strategy and arguments will ring hollow, and we could expect to see many in the Clinton camp start to quietly fold their tents.

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emcee:

Tied in PA? That's GREAT!

Oh, wait, it's ARG. Nevermind.

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Andrew_in_California:

Although its ARG, Insider advantage has both of them within the margin of error. This does seem to me to be "April Showers" for Clinton when She was ahead in upper teens only a month ago.

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cinnamonape:

There's more than just the Insider Advantage poll that supports this ARG result.

The PPP Poll of 3/31-4/1/08 Actually had Obama ahead by 45% to 43% while Rassmessen
on 3/31/08 had the race at 47% Clinton and 42% Obama.

What might be interesting here is that the number of Undecideds has dropped to about 6% from about twice the earlier numbers. It will be interesting if this is maintained until the election.

I'd say this is most likely the result of Obama's most recent campaign swing. Hillary's spent the last month there and the luster is off the silver.

I can't think that the Mark Penn situation will help this any. And I don't know how firing him as a Policy Consultant while retaining him in the camapign as Chief Internal Pollster helps at all. Pollsters still give analysis about the data they "produce" which allows them to advise on policy. When you tell the candidate that they are gaining votes in a particular demographic after they start talking on specific issues THAT influences policy. Even the types of questions asked by a pollster can direct the strategic response.

Penn is notorious for segmenting population samples into odd demographics and then assessing how to appeal to that segment of the population...even when the sub-identities are absurd (why not "African American Scrabble Players vs. Domino Players"?)
and inconsequential in sample size.
If Penn is so distrustworthy why retain him in any position.

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Knute:

Interesting comments by Cinnimonape about Penn. I'm looking forward to the postmortems on the Clinton campaign that are likely to come out next year.

It's the height of irony that the Obama organization has been able to tap into the real "microtrends" in the democratic electorate (paying attention to the caucus states, having a post-super tuesday strategy, effectively using the Internet and the Internet generation, etc.), whereas the Clinton/Penn approach has foundered using an old-fashioned "killer" strategy stressing the big blue states, old money, overwhelming force, inevitability, and thinking it would all be over in Feb.

Penn's fall is emblematic of the crumbling of the old guard -- when they actually should have known better. Penn will be making history, but not the way he intended.

Patton defeated Rommel, in part, because he "read his book."

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