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POLL: ARG Texas and Ohio


American Research Group

Texas
Obama 51, Clinton 44... McCain 62, Huckabee 23, Paul 9

Ohio
Clinton 50, Obama 45... McCain 63, Huckabee 21, Paul 9

 

Comments
dork:

ARG sucks. It's just a shill for Clinton. No way is she going to win Ohio.

ARG sucks. It's just a shill for Obama. No way is he gong to win Texas.

LOL.

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LwPhD:

So, is Pollster.com going to include the NBC affiliate KXAN's polls? If not, why not?

http://www.kxan.com/Global/story.asp?S=7902492&nav=menu73_2_13

http://www.kxan.com/Global/story.asp?S=7941605&nav=menu73_2_12_3

They show Clinton going from a 46/45 lead to a 47/50 deficit. All within error of course.

Also, how about including the Belo tracking polls in the graphs since they've been posted in the poll updates on the main page?

Thanks a lot for all your work.

Cheers,

LwPhD


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Abe:

ARG and Zogby showing leads for Obama of 7 and 6 points respectively ... but it's ARG and Zegby.

Rassmussen showing a lead of 4 though.

Regardless, looks like Texas is trending sharply toward Obama (certainly the Pollster charts represent that well) as has been the case leading up to election day in prior primary states this season.

Looks like this may be over soon and then we can start looking at the more statistically complex national race!

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Rasmus:

The Ohio Poll:

Among early voters, Clinton leads 59% to 40% (21% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among in-person voters, Clinton leads 48% to 45%.

Is there such a big momentum for Obama, or do just the CLinton voters prefer early-voting?

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Bill- Ohio:

Rasmus,

I would guess it's a little of both. Many of the traditional veteran voters know how to use the system to their convenience, ie early voting. If the demographics hold up I would not be surprised if the 65+ group was voting for Clinton early and then to see the other groups fight it out on election day. With Obama gaining support so late in the process it's no surprise he will have a pretty good by Clinton voters to overcome. I'm sure someone can correct me if wrong but if I remember right early voting has favored Clinton pretty consistently in both states she won and lost.

Gotta go I'm going to vote early today :)

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Anthony:

Zogby is a professed Obama supporter. My guess is that the "polled" Hispanic reported numbers are WAY off. I saw another survey saying she was leading 3 to 1 among Hispanics yesterday. I think the polls have joined the media in choosing their darling candidate. I think we'll see Clinton over-perform in Texas just like in California due to the Hispanic vote.

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Greggie:

Wrong. Obama will overperform in Texas due to the AA vote

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LwPhD:

So, is Pollster.com going to include the NBC affiliate KXAN's polls? If not, why not?

http://www.kxan.com/Global/story.asp?S=7902492&nav=menu73_2_13

http://www.kxan.com/Global/story.asp?S=7941605&nav=menu73_2_12_3

They show Clinton going from a 46/45 lead to a 47/50 deficit. All within error of course.

Also, how about including the Belo tracking polls in the graphs since they've been posted in the poll updates on the main page?

Thanks a lot for all your work.

Cheers,

LwPhD


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LwPhD:

Sorry for the double post! Browser problems.

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Alan P.:

LwPhD,

Pollster has included at least the first KXAN poll already. It's listed under Constituent Dynamics, the firm that KXAN commissioned to do the polls.

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joshua bradshaw:

sorry meant ARG

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joshua bradshaw:

does ARG off cross tabs. sorry about the posts browser not working right

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Abe:

ARG and Zogby showing leads for Obama of 7 and 6 points respectively ... but it's ARG and Zegby.

Rassmussen showing a lead of 4 though.

Regardless, looks like Texas is trending sharply toward Obama (certainly the Pollster charts represent that well) as has been the case leading up to election day in prior primary states this season.

Looks like this may be over soon and then we can start looking at the more statistically complex national race!

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nieddu:

Guys chill, Obama is going to win big in Texas and VT, Ohio is too close to call so is RI, but even if Hillary wins Ohio, the margin will be too small and insignificant, she wont be able to make to the nomination. Her desperate attacks against Obama are doing more damage to the Democratic Party. Her whole attitude that she has the right to be the nominee, exudes selfishness and generates antipathy among the voters.

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Paulie:

I'll make a prediction for ya rowjimmy:


All hail President Obama.


It doesn't matter if some of you Hillary contributors want to vote for a war-monger. It just means you weren't Democrats in the first place.


The more Obama campaigns, the more people switch to him.....for good. Do you actually think that McCain can out-campaign Obama til November? I think not. He is getting so old and tired that he can't hop from stop to stop like he once did.

This is very important to remember: Obama didn't SWITCH a significant number of Hillary supporters. What he did was increase the sample size of potential voters. Typically, in every election, less than 50% of the electorate votes. Obama has managed to mobilize the non-voters. This is only going to increase in time. So not only do you have most all Democrats supporting him, but you will have many independents and republicans supporting him as well. Watch out, I see a landslide coming this November. You heard it here first folks.

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LwPhD:

@ Alan P.
Thanks for the heads up. I should be looking more closely for the polling firm instead of just the media outlet.

So, the Public Strategies poll represents the BELO station polls being reported by KVUE and Elise Hu? Will their whole series of tracking be posted?

http://www.beloblog.com/KVUE_Blogs/politicaljunkie/2008/02/the-lead-changes-in-the-belo-t.html

Not that we need even more data from the Texas race, but hey, it's there.

And the second KVUE (and by implication, Constituent Dynamics) poll is out as I mention above.

This is really nice for Texas. Here I just thought we'd be ignored again, and this time people are actually engaging the Texans in Democracy again. Nice concept. Just voted today. Will watch the returns anxiously on Tues.

Cheers,

LwPhD

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citizen cain:

Greggie, you said, "Wrong. Obama will overperform in Texas due to the AA vote"

How many more PMs can vote for Obama? He's already getting 90% of the PM vote. Even if they all decided to vote, there's only 2.5 of them in Texas. There are 9 million hispanics.

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Perf:

I have found ARG's estimates to be more reliable.
If they say Obama is leading in TX polls then it is very likely to happen.
If they say Hilary is leading in Ohio, then it may true.
I have seen Obama always comes back much stronger than expected from behind as it happened in Wisconsin.
It appears Obama will perform better than the expectation in Ohio & TX like he did before.

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perflead:

Obama will do better than expectations. ARG's estimates were reliable in the case of Wisconsin polls & others. In fact Obama surprises with much stronger perfromance than predicted by polls. He is very likely to win in Ohio & TX bases on previous performance.

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Perflead:

Obama is leading with more than 150 earned (in elections) delegates. I think it is 154. It is very difficult to make up the gap of 154 delegates unlie.ss she makes a land slide victory in TX & Ohio & the rest of the states. It does not seem to be a probability, though every thing possible. Obama has in reality won the democratic primaries.

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perfLead:

Obama does not take lobbyist money from foreign interest.
Obama does not take lobbyist money from corporate interest like Mrs. Clinton & Mcain.
I think the aforementioned facts should make it clear to everyone that Obamas is genuine & sincrere to ordinary Americans.
And, Obama will not need to bow down to Corporate & foreign interest that run America today because he does not take their money like Mrs Clinton & Mcain do.
Vote Obama for American interest.
Vote Mcain or Mrs Clinton for the good of foreign interest & corporate interest mainly.
Mrs. Clinton or Macain will have obligation to serve the DESIRES of foreign interest & corporate interest because they take enormous sums of lobbyist money.
It also tells me Obama is sincere to ordinary Americans.
Talk is cheap.
Evidence is important.
Obama is the only contestant who has provided with evidence by not taking the money.
Compare their money taking with Mrs. Clinton or Mcain & then decide.
Obama takes money mainly from the masses.

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