Articles and Analysis


POLL: ARG, IN, NC (5/2-4)

American Research Group

North Carolina
Obama 50, Clinton 42

Clinton 53, Obama 45



more garbage from arg? why publish their "results"? Are we sure they don't just have a monkey throw darts at numbers on a wall somewhere?

look at wisc - their varying polls were a joke there.....



Not garbage....Look at all the ARG polls for both Indiana and North Carolina for the trend... and notably ARG polls are very comparable to other polls.

Just because a poll does not favor your candidate does not make that poll irrelevant.



From ARG for NC: "Clinton leads 62% to 27% among white voters (60% of likely Democratic primary voters)"

What is this, MS? I mean, ARG could be right, but 27% Whites for Obama seems really low.



here here.
obviously these polls are an art not a science. it'll be really interesting which pollster had a better feel for how to conduct this business. there's no way of knowing now.

but the polls are saying a few consistent things: obama is descending (though maybe just for the moment) and hillary is rising.

yelling about it doesnt change this surge. will she nail it? i couldnt even begin to say, but based on the national polls, obama has some serious holes that need plugging and im afraid
the swiftboaters will have more fun with him than they had with kerry.

this is the BIG argument. will it play in Poccatello? who knows..



This recurrent fear of the swift boaters make the liberals look like whinnies. Why can't you peeps swift boat John McCain. The fear of a loss is a loss. No one said John McCain could not win the evagelical votes after he lost it in the primaries. Indeed, few months after republican strategic move to nominate a tax cut hating, immigration loving but media friendly republicans to appear more centrist after George Bush, the democrats are waiting on polls and republican commentators to choose their candidate for them. Same they did with Kerry in 2004, and what we got was a guy whose so called military record strenght became a liability. Go with your instincts and principles democrats. Be principled for once!



wrong boskop. wrong. wrong. wrong.

if obama has "serious holes", then billary has cavernous craters.

NOTE to billary supporters: Obama has not attacked hillary the way the republicans will? WHY? He needs those voters for the general and can't be seen as a bully. So, he has to walk the fine line. He can't attack as ferociously as she had, and he can't be seen to be weak either. That's why his poll numbers are going down a bit. Ordinary joe schmo doesn't know this - they only hear the negatives against Obama.

Obama is also trying to run a different kind of campaign without all the political BS. It's a hard way to win - taking the higher road.

Anyone who thinks clinton's baggage has been gone through is straight up delusional. Just google "peter paul" and "Clinton". I wonder why the main stream media hasn't picked up on this???

The right wingers would love a bloodied obama in the fall - but they would wet their collective pants for hillary. hill and bill don't have skeletons in their closets - they have a freaking cemetary.....or two.



Zogby is now the only pollster showing Obama up in Indiana. I expect Zogby to get scared and feel forced to reveal the truth today or tomorrow--that Clinton is actually ahead here. He did that in Pennsylvania. Now remember, his brother and senior analyst for Zogby International has called for Hillary to withdraw from the race, and is an ardent Obama supporter.



The only think that comes clear to me from these polls is that Hillary is stuck in the low 40's. Get all the poll and average her support and you would see that she does not move up. So, his lose of support does not translate into her gaining that support.

So, I think that by this time she knows that low 40's is her ceiling. She is not gonna convince those people into voting for her; therefore, she wants to hurt him with this gas stuff, so AA, who tend to be very poor, stay home. She knows that they are not going to vote for her, but she wants to keep them from voting for him as well.



Two thoughts:

1. Much has been said about Obama underperforming polls in Southern States, and I think that it will probably still hold here, meaning that an 8% spread now would equate to a 12-14 point win on Tues, if trends from past states hold

2. Obama is still struggling to get above 45% in IN which is not good news if he expects an upset. That said, this poll puts AA turnout at 12%, while a few sites I've perused expect it to be closer to 15%. That is about a 2-3 point swing, putting the final tally around 5pts (52-47 or so), which seems in line with a lot of predictions and polls I've seen.

Conclusion: ARG may not be too far off this time. Maybe they're learning? :)


ALL the polls from the past week tell me the same thing:

Clinton will win Indiana, Obama will win North Carolina, neither will win by enough to substantially change the race for the nomination. They will both have won the states they were expected to win. Obama will still be ~130 delegates ahead of Clinton.

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTCOME: Obama will have successfully run time off of the clock with Clinton unable to make any significant gains.

Requisite (American) football analogy:

* 40 seconds (404 delegates) remaining
* 13 points (130 delegates) behind
* Clinton needs 70% of the remaining delegates
* Clinton will not win

After Tuesday:
* 22 seconds (217 delegates) remaining
* 13 points (130 delegates) behind
* Clinton needs 85% of the remaining delegates
* Clinton will not win




The mistake people make is assuming the primary process is a game of basketball. In actuality, it is a game of golf. With three holes left and your opponent ahead by seven points, there is no way in hell to win.



no way. it is a game of football, in the playoffs if you will.

The game is currently as follows:

Team Obama is up by three touchdowns with 5 seconds left, and they have the ball. But all of a sudden, Team Hillary starts shrieking, "but I have more passing yards! My uniform is prettier! C'mon commissioner, give me the win. Make Team Obama forfeit! wwaaa waaa waa"



Interesting to note that it's Obama's supporters here who use nasty terms and insults to refer to Sen. Clinton and her supporters, while Clinton's supporters have not returned the insults.



My prediction:
BHO wins NC narrowly about 5% and loses IN by about 10%.
Just wait for these Obama hacks to start whining and complaining about something like kitchen sinks etc.
Fun is about to begin. LOL!!
Also Hillary eventually will run as a third candidate.



Unless there is the kind of shock we saw in New Hampshire, Clinton will carry IN and Obama will carry NC. If Obama wins both, the race may well be over. If Clinton wins NC (even by .5 pt), it'll be declared a huge upset and we'll be told it's a "new race". The media will make either situation the reality. What analysts (and superdelegates, of course) will be looking at is the margin in each state and the exit polls. If Clinton wins IN by 10 pts, for example, it'll be seen as a "huge" win and confirmation that she wins overwhelmingly among working class voters. If Obama wins NC by single digits, it'll be reported as a big disappointment, most especially if he is trounced among whites. What the media hasn't widely reported is that NC is the first state to vote since the Rev. Wright scandal that overwhelmingly favors Obama. If there is evidence of a "white flight" among NC voters, he's in big trouble with the superdelegates, esp. since he's going to get trounced in WV and KY (states with large white working class populations) in the coming 2 weeks.



I spent all weekend phone banking to Indiana voters for Obama. My team made 2,200 calls. The list of voters we called was a "culled" list from prior phone banking over the last few weeks, so this is why there is a skew.

We were only calling:
1. Previously undecided voters
2. Voters who were not home when we phone banked in prior weeks
2. Voters who leaned for Obama, but were not firm
4. Voters who leaned for Hillary, but were not firm
5. Voters who leaned for McCain, but were not firm

Our results DID NOT show that Hillary was as strong as the polls suggest (but all the strong Hillary supporters - and Obama and McCain supporters - had already been excluded from our phone list.)


After excluding all voters we did not reach (about 1,170 were not home) these are the rough results:

There was (still) a large group of undecided voters: around 22%

There were voters who said they did not share their voting preferences with callers: almost 8%

More Indiana voters said they were voting for Obama than Hillary 29%-23%

The rest of the calls were voting GOP or "Other" (many of which we think is GOP, but we're not sure at this late stage... Could be Paul. Could be Hillary, but they did not want to say...) Also, we put hang-ups in this category unless we could discern that the voter was a Hillary or GOP voter - or a "None of your business!": around 18%

We got some very racist voters - and some very sexist voters. We got lots of hang-ups (sometimes they would say something before they hung up, but often they would just hang up without saying anything.)

Among the "undecided," many were struggling with the Obama v. Hillary issue - and they were very intelligent and caring about their analyses. Lots of them recalled the fights between the Republicans and the Clintons, Hillary lied about the sniper fire, Hillary has been very unethical during this campaign, "file gate," Monica Lewinsky, Hillary supported NAFTA, etc.

Many of them said that Obama is weak on experience or they raise the Wright issue, but that they just don't like Hillary - or Hillary cannot win the general. (The "bitter" remark was not mentioned.) Some said they were concerned about Obama's race.



Haha, I found this quite amusing. These are two posts that came directly after each other above, you can't make this stuff up.

"Interesting to note that it's Obama's supporters here who use nasty terms and insults to refer to Sen. Clinton and her supporters, while Clinton's supporters have not returned the insults."

"My prediction:
BHO wins NC narrowly about 5% and loses IN by about 10%.
Just wait for these Obama hacks to start whining and complaining about something like kitchen sinks etc.
Fun is about to begin. LOL!!
Also Hillary eventually will run as a third candidate. "

Tybo says Hillary supports never bash Obama/Obama Supporters as the very next poster does just that. ca-indp has been making posts like this constantly for quite a while too, so this is nothing new.

The thing is, any supporter of either Hillary or Obama that insults the other candidate or other candidates supporters is just screwing themselves in the end. Both candidates are amazing candidates and both are infinitely better than McCain. Stop bitching about your fellow democrats and focus your fire on the republican.



Thanks for sharing that experience! Fingers crossed for tomorrow's polls!


Post a comment

Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.