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POLL: ARG Wisconsin


American Research Group
Clinton 50, Obama 41... McCain 51, (Romney 29), Paul 7

 

Comments
Will:

So based on ARG's record Obama is up by what about 10?

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RS:

@Will:
After California, I am not so sure that ARG is biased high for Clinton.
Wait for more data.

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Progny:

Definitely could be right this time... the same way a stopped watch is twice a day.

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Nick:

I'm surprised by this poll, given that Wisconsin's politically like-minded neighbor Minnesota went for Obama by a 2-to-1 margin.

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michael:

Minnesota was a caucus, Wisconsin is a primary (so, this may be Clinton's only win other than Puerto Rico before Texohio). The GOP results were similarly weird - McCain was 19 points ahead in the most recent poll (taken January 30th) in MN, but ended up losing by over 20 points.

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Adam:

Clinton by 9 points in WI? Not gonna happen...

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cokie_roberts_bender_id:

Adam, what will be the final vote percentage in WI?

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cokie_roberts_bender_id:

Adam, what will be the final vote percentage in WI?

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Paul:

I would not bet the farm that Clinton wins Wisconsin and and feel confident that she does not win by 9. Strategic Vision poll taken 12-07 to 12-09 had Clinton up by only 7 over Obama (Clinton, Obama Edwards, Richardson at 36-29-12-6). Assuming Edwards and Richardson break evenly and given Obama positive momentum since December, I would argue this contest should be at least even up. Hopefully we will see some more polls on Wisconsin before their primary to see which way this race is moving. There are 597 delegates to be awarded between today and March 4 (TX-OH) ... we shall see.

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Nate:

Wisconsin has a sizable Asian population and of the Asians that I have spoken to so far, from young to old, the majority of them are supporting Obama. This is, of course, only anecdotal so I'm not sure how well it will play in the primary. Back in 1995, the Clinton administration supported the repatriation of the Hmong (who make up a sizable portion of the Asian population in WI); this may come to hurt Hillary Clinton the primary.

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Phil:

Asians went ridiculously for Clinton in California, at least.

But more puzzling for me - the likeminded voters in Minnesota and the fact that Wisconsin's media market is heavily influenced by Chicago would point towards Obama.

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njbubb:

Wisconsin also has an open primary with same day voter registration. That means it's insanely easy for every college student to vote. That makes WI really difficult to poll, in particular because you can't get good estimates of new voters, undecided voters, and cross-over voters (there's no party registration in WI). Places like the UW-Madison campus are going to trend Obama by large margins.

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Cade:

I can pretty much guarantee you that Wisconsin will be won by Obama (60-40). That's a 30 point swing from the polls you say? Just wait till Tuesday. VERY LARGE armies from Chicago are going up there right now to campaign/canvass & register new voters. And they aren't doing it for Billary. There is a HUGE population of college students up there -way too many Universities for Billary to overcome. I think the momentum of Obama winning today (3 primaries) will propel him to win Wisconsin, Ohio and probably break even in Texas (maybe even win it). It could be an Obama sweep from here on out! You heard it here first, folks!

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enlightened voter:

people will catch on to Obama's plattitude and rhetoric soon.
Obamas problem is that the general election is NOT a giant caucus. He cant drag kids out of their dorms for an social event.

He cant HYPE himself into a frenzy in 50 states simultaneously. He wont get the same 'independent' vote as he gets in red state caucus's .

He will not have a 50% african american voter base in the general election. Because most of african americans are in the democratic party.

He will not get the latino vote.

He will not win Florida. He will not win Ohio.

He will NOT win the general election. Everyting that is making him win right now is NOT availiable to him in the general election. It works like a giagantic primary.

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