Obama 46, Clinton 45... McCain 59, Huckabee 27, Paul 6
Without crosstabs, it's very difficult to assess this poll. In particular, it's hard to gauge what percent of the hispanic vote will go Democratic, and how much of that will support Clinton. Is there anyway to get the crosstabs?
Posted on February 29, 2008 11:04 AM
If I'm not mistaken you can view that through the links on politicalwire.com
Posted on February 29, 2008 11:10 AM
"Without crosstabs, it's very difficult to assess this poll. In particular, it's hard to gauge what percent of the hispanic vote will go Democratic, and how much of that will support Clinton."
You can play around a bit with the numbers, so with the White 41-50, AA 79-12 and Latinos 32-61 numbers given in the poll you get out that their sample included ABOUT 40% whites, 23% AA and 37% Latinos.
Could be 2-3% more or less for each group, but that, I think, is it.
With that numbers you would get out 47,01% support for Obama and 45,64% for Clinton- I first calculated with 50-20-30, but with that we would get 45,9-45,7, and I really had to play around with the numbers to get Clinton to 46% while holding Obama between 46,5 and 47,5 %...
Posted on February 29, 2008 11:56 AM
Here are the crosstabs...not the easiest in the world to read. This TV station blog also has good info (shorten the link):
Posted on February 29, 2008 12:00 PM
Yeah, but the demographics include both democrats and republicans, so its not so interesting as it would be when they separated them in LDemocratVs and LRepublicanVs...
Posted on February 29, 2008 12:18 PM
Let me ask the obvious:
This poll has Obama getting 79% of the black vote. This is consistent with other polls in other states going into the primary.
But in the exit polls, he's always getting 87-93% of the AA vote.
Does anyone really think Obama is goin to get less than 88% of the black vote? Just asking.
Posted on February 29, 2008 12:39 PM
Interestingly, Obama gets the early voters 2:1 over Clinton, which makes sense with the news stories we've been hearing out of Texas.
Something else to note: Once the tracking drops that first day with Barack at 43, we're probably going to see his numbers bump up significantly. For example, last night they had him at 46. The previous two days it was 43 then 45. Meaning that surveys taken yesterday must have been several points higher than 46. If the trend continues, AND we drop that 43 from the tally, we will probably see his numbers jump up 2-4 points, bringing him to about 48-50, which fits in just perfectly with the slew of other polls from this week. Just a thought.
Also, Greggie: You're right, 79% is too low. And with black turnout seemingly up (his base seems more energized) I think this thing is going to be more lopsided than polls have it.
Remember back to Wisconsin when he was up 4-8 in most polls even the day before, and then ended up winning by 17!!! If the same holds true for Texas, we could be looking at another blowout.
Posted on February 29, 2008 12:52 PM
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