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POLL: Belo Tracking Texas


Public Strategies

Texas 2/29 - 3/3
Clinton 46, Obama 45... McCain 55, Huckabee 35, Paul 5

Full data here.

 

Comments
George:

So substance prevails over style. There is true hope for the USA.

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tony:

george, let's hope.

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Given the split primary/caucus nature of Texas' vote, I'm EXTREMELY wary of using these polls as a predictor of the delegate results. How do the polls take into account that some people may vote twice?

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Shane:

Most of the source article talks about how its -really- about which side gets more of their supporters out to vote. This is probably true in both states but especially true in Texas.

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Evan :

Please don't post if you haven't even clicked on the link to the poll. This means nothing - the numbers haven't changed in a week - and all within the margin of error. Can we leave the partisan spin out of this board please?

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rich:

the link on this poll is very interesting. It's all about the turnout model. If African Americans turn out in equal or higher percentages than Hispanics, Obama, say the pollsters, will win. Apparently, in early voting at least, that has been the case. It seems that in primaries getting the percentages of support within various groups is the easy part. Getting the turnout models right is the hard part.

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rich:

the link on this poll is very interesting. It's all about the turnout model. If African Americans turn out in equal or higher percentages than Hispanics, Obama, say the pollsters, will win. Apparently, in early voting at least, that has been the case. It seems that in primaries getting the percentages of support within various groups is the easy part. Getting the turnout models right is the hard part.

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rich:

the link on this poll is very interesting. It's all about the turnout model. If African Americans turn out in equal or higher percentages than Hispanics, Obama, say the pollsters, will win. Apparently, in early voting at least, that has been the case. It seems that in primaries getting the percentages of support within various groups is the easy part. Getting the turnout models right is the hard part.

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Maryann:

Here is some discussion of how poorly the polls have done at estimating the results in Caucus states and how that might affect the delegate count out of Texas tonight:

http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/2008/03/will-obama-win-big-over-clinton-in.html

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Mary:

Evan, unfortunately, I notice that many who post, ostensibly to comment on the numbers, are really distorting the numbers to favor their candidate, usually Obama. This board is partisan, and its frequent posters show a decidedly Obama bias. Whenever someone shows a Hillary bias, they are stomped on by the Obama fans who frequent this board. Let people comment on the numbers and, if they display a partisan twist, let it go. Let there be a discussion. Otherwise, all this board is is a bunch of Obama wishful thinkers, biasing numbers their way in dumb ways. We can learn from each other, and challenge biases with an open discussion. Obama supporters have no claim of exclusivity on this site.

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