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POLL: CBS/Times National (4/25-29)


CBS News/New York Times
(story, Dem results, GE results; Times story, results, methodology)
n=956 RV, 402 Dem LV

National
Obama 46, Clinton 38
Obama 45, McCain 45, Clinton 48, McCain 43

Gen House: Dem 50, Rep 32

 

Comments
kingsbridge77:

Today was the only day in which all newspapers carried Wright and Obama in their front pages. We'll have to wait and see the impact reflected in polls that include April 30th, which is today.

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Andrew_in_California:

Its interesting to see Hillary's waning numbers despite people would vote for her more over McCain than Obama vs. McCain. People must be lining up now realizing Hillary doesn't have a chance in the race and voting for Obama as the presumptive nominee.

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Mike_in_CA:

kingsbridge,

it's always "wait one day and then look at the polls," but it never plays out. Wright just is NOT having an impact. Zilch. I don't know how the media is so wrapped around this narrative. He improved 5% in PA start to finish, that's BEFORE and AFTER Wright. An improvement certainly doesn't look like it "hurt him." The dip he's taken in these national polls (one can argue he actually hasn't really taken a dip in ALL of them) is probably more attributed to the PA win and Clinton spin.

Seriously, the media is going to look really silly (over the Wright thing) when this is all said and done.

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p.lukasiak:

Mike, I think you're kidding yourself.

Impact of events is not always immediately seen in head-to-head poll numbers, but can be found in other places. The WSJ poll has a really interesting question concerning whether a candidate has a background/set of values that the respondent identifies with.

In their late March poll, 50% said that they could identify with Obama, and 39% said they couldn't. Now its 45% identify, 46% 'not identify'. (Clinton, btw, went from 43 to 46 on "identify", and 52 to 46 on "not identify".)

Obama's 7% shift toward in "not identify" is where the change in occurring -- even though Obama actually gained a margin point against McCain during the same period.

The true severity of a weakness only becomes obvious when it is exploited. It hasn't been in the national GOP's interest to exploit fully the Wright situation yet, and Clinton isn't going to exploit it.

I'd also suggest that you keep in mind that we don't elect a President based on national polls - its all state by state. Go back and do some comparison on state polls done in late February and mid-march (Susa has a bunch of them). Some states -- like Ohio and Missouri -- show a significant change in Obama v McCain occurring at the height of the first Wright controversy. Others, like Oregon, don't show much of any impact.

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distantobserver:

I don't think that there has been much variation in support for each of the candidates since not-so-super Tuesday. Mark B. has written about this somewhere in the archives.

What happens is this: Every poll has an outlier now and then; a lot of variation can happen within the margin of error. So almost every day there is a possible change of 'trend'.

Every day something happens along the road, and immediately the pundits have a heureka experience: suddenly they know the reason why the trend shown by Gallup (Rasmussen, CBS...) has now collapsed.

Those guesses make pollsters introduce questions about the arbitrary event into their questionnaires for a while, thus gently forcing undecided respondents in some direction or the other. A temporary reflection shows up in the results - which vanishes after a while.

(Aside: that's why usually one pollster shows an 'immediate reaction to the event' while others lag behind or are inconclusive. This has happened in the days of the first Wright controversy, this has happened during so-called Bittergate, this is what we're watching now.)

Back to normal. Until the next self-appointed interpreter of polls and events shouts out HEUREKA...

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