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POLL: CBS National (7/31 - 8/5)


CBS News
7/31-8/5/08; 851 RV, 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(story, results for 2008 campaign, uncommitted voters, VP choices)

National
Obama 45, McCain 39 (July: Obama 45, McCain 39)

 

Comments
C.S.Strowbridge:

I'm sure a 6% lead for two months in a row must be bad for Obama and I'm just as sure someone will be here to tell us why.

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Timmeh:

This is yet another poll showing how remarkably stable the presidential race has been all summer. I expect the rest of the polls of the summer to show these kind of results until after the conventions and during the debates.

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Timmeh:

@C.S.Strowbridge:

Just wait, I'm sure Undecided will be here to tell us exactly how this is bad for Obama, even though he has consistently been leading by about 5 points throughout the summer.

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1magine:

Leading? Whatever do you mean? I was certain that I'd heard BO had already lost. Oh I'm soo confused. All these polls tonight showing a 5% lead. Isn't that a "statistical tie"? I heard some fivethirty something site said 3% National lead translates to a 97% chance of electorl vote win and that 5% would likely mean 300+ electoral vots. He must be wrong. Or these polls don't acurately reflect how bad shape Obama is in. After all He doesn't want to Drill Here Drill Now. How could he win?

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player:

The consevative vote always gets focused late in the game. They wait till political season starts. This is evident by the huge margins that dems have had over reps in the past. However the reps catch up by election day.

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David_T:

player, the problem with your analysis is that the Democrats don't always do better in the summer polls than they do in November. For example, prior to the Democratic convention in 2000, Gore was *way* behind Bush.

Personally, I think a lead of a few points during the summer means--a lead of a few points during the summer. Period. It may be reversed, be diminished, stay about the same, or expand by November. But I'd still rather be a few poiints ahead than a few points behind.

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carl29:

@player:
"The consevative vote always gets focused late in the game. They wait till political season starts. This is evident by the huge margins that dems have had over reps in the past. However the reps catch up by election day."

I don't think that this was the case in 2000 when Bush enjoyed a healthy preference over Gore during the entire summer. Remember that Bush was the conservative candidate; however, on election day Gore won the popular vote( and Florida in my opinion).

Regardless who comes out victorious on election night, this election will be as close as it was in 2000 and 2004.

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josephj:

@carl29:
As close as 2000? I don't think think so, man. That year was unbelievably close! The closest US election ever, I believe. But if we see unprecedented electoral manipulation this year, whether through vote-caging, phone-jamming schemes and Diebold, it can certainly get that close. I'm betting on a slim but healthy Obama lead.

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ki_moo_enim:

I don't get it. CBS says that "Obama is Holding Off McCain" and Obama is set for a weeklong holiday in Hawaii? Didn't he just get back from his "Pee-wee's Big Adventure" in Europe? Doesn't he like the mainland? His explanation: “Those little girls need love, as does Michelle I think,” Obama told reporters. “So we are going to take the time.” (He thinks?) And while he is at it he will see his ailing 85-year old grandmother who he has not seen for 19 months. (So why did Obama go to the Virgin Islands for Easter vacation? Was he hoping the old gal would die before he had to face her after throwing her under the bus for Pastor Wright?)

Are the Democrats trying to lose this race? Pelosi and Reid adjourned Congress for 5 weeks without a blink or a nod to gas prices.

And where is McCain? Iowa, Arkansas, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and more. Is he the platinum edition of the Energizer bunny? The young guy needs a rest break and the old guy keeps on going. Is this some new kind of parallel universe? Maybe McCain is the exotic one... Vulcan maybe? (Vulcan life span is more than two centuries.) It might explain his 96-year old mother and her twin sister still running strong.

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player:

David T & Carl@29
You could be correct. I do remember Bush being way ahead of Gore almost a year before the election. However, I think that was an outlier so to speak. We had just gotten over an impeachment trial. As far as the hare and the tortoise are concerned, the democrats are always the hare and the republicans are always the tortoise. I think Obama is in a serious steep decline, and he hasn't really been challenged by the press yet. One major slip from him could seal his fate with the undecided voters. Hillary might try to snatch this thing away from him at the convention.

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Mike_in_CA:

@ ki_moon.

Are you smoking something? Obama's primary season was a full three months longer than McCain's. And until mid June, John McCain could count on one hand the number of weekends he spent campaigning.

McCain. In Iowa? He gave up winning Iowa in January. He hasn't set foot in the state in forever. Arkansas? Is a swing state? Seriously?

And the comment about the Dems-Congress-gas prices exposes your Republican shill-ness. But nice try :)

Better luck next time poster who randomly shows up and offers no polling insight and only Republican talking points. No wonder your brand is in the toilet...

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josephj:

@Mike_in_CA,
Go easy on ki_moo_enim. After all, they don't teach Stats under bridges, in murky forests, or in other places where trolls reside. Talking points are more their forte tan anything.

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marctx:

It doesn't matter whether it's a tie, 2 point lead, or 6 point lead, the number to watch is Obama's number of 45%. Because the democrats chose this guy this election is all about Obama. Even the Obama channel analysts point this out every night. If he doesn't break 50% nationally or in a particular state, that state is likely to go to the other guy like it did for Hillary. Undecideds are closet McCain supporters, like Obama's BFF Chris Matthews always used to call them in the primaries for Hillary. People don't want to be called racists so they say undecided. Obama supporters start dancing and screaming like there texting there vote on American Idol.

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marctx:

I apologize to the Obama supporters. When I say "dancing and screaming" I mean they are more "enthusiastic" like they keep saying over and over and over and over again on CNN/MSNBC aka the Obama campaign.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Obama supporters start dancing and screaming like there texting there vote on American Idol."

"When I say "dancing and screaming" I mean they are more "enthusiastic" like they keep saying over and over and over and over again on CNN/MSNBC aka the Obama campaign."

Again I feel the need to point out that the big button you press to post your comments says, "Post an intelligent and civil comment". Before you hit it, re-read your posts and make sure they qualify for both. If not, don't hit it and just walk away.

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bambi:

This is actually a bad poll for Obama despite CBS' best effort.

CBS milked the partisan breakdown to an absurd degree. Look at page 15, the raw data shows a partisan breakdown as follows:

906
Total Republicans 317 (35%)
Total Democrats 381 (42%)
Total Independents 336 (37%)

A 7% difference.

CBS then 'weighted' the sample, and gave us this:

851
Total Republicans 284 (33%)
Total Democrats 406 (48%)
Total Independents 344 (40%)

A 15% difference in partisan IDs.

Obama will have a rude awakening coming into Nov.

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jamesia:

@ bambi

The Democratic Party has been enjoying increased registration in recent years. This Pew Poll (PDF) shows general party identification. The relevant info is on page 6 of that PDF and show a 50% identification with Democrats, with a 35% identification with Republicans. Several other polls show similar numbers (simple Google search); some even include which direction the Independents/Undecideds lean - also heavily towards the Democratic Party.

CBS is correct in choosing their numbers this way. This is the reason most Rasmussen polls are probably off a bit. Ras is attempting to give equal party preference, and that is clearly not what the populace is feeling. All things considered, Obama should be mopping the floor with McCain, so Republicans can probably allow themselves some margin of victory given that Obama is probably leading by 4-6% only.

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carl29:

Guys, start donating to your candidate, make phone calls, register voters, get active!!! That's exactly Obama's advantage. The guy has supporters who are willing to roll up their sleeves and work hard for him. I don't see the same with McCain and Hillary.

Take it to the bank: Barack would have never been in debt. I don't understand why Hillary's supporters don't put their money where their mouths are. I bet she is dissapointed in you. It is pretty sad seeing her begging for money. I know it because I was merciful enough to send her $50 back in June, so ever since then she sends me thank you notes, videos, and invitations with a HUGE Donate button.

Yesterday there was the opening of an Obama campaign office in my hometown, Miami. There were over 200 people signing up to help the campaign. The line and the heat was hard to deal with but people was more than entusiathic. I am one who believes that Florida is out of reach for Barack; however, this is about advancing the party in the state, promoting a democratic agenda and helping democrats down the ballot. I love Barack's idea of growing the party in every possible state, regardless of him carrying it or not in the fall.

*Yesterday Hillary sent me an invitation "to join her" in some sort of virtual chat on her website. There is your girl!!! Donate money to help her with her debt. Put your money where you mouth is.

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Chimpy McFlightsuit:

I don't know what Pollster.com's strategery is by not updating my Presidiential Approvalocity Graph more often.
Since my positive percentification is sure to reboundify, I can only guess that they want to keep my resurgency out of the news.

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sequioa:

@ bambi...

Oh, please. If you don't anticipate a higher turnout for Obama than for McCain, you are truly delusional.

You can go on and on about Obama's "rude awakening" which goofy anti-Obamites have been babbling about since February (LOL!) while he maintains a solid national lead, opens up the electoral college map for a very possible 300+ electoral vote BLOWOUT and continues to bring in new Democrats across the country...while Republican rosters are falling.

Nobody buys your fake confidence.

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ki_moo_enim:

Ignoring polling methods to make a point? Check out Rasmussen ID weights before making the mistake about 'equal party preference.'

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ki_moo_enim:

C.S.Strowbridge is being funny right.. about telling someone else about 'civil and intelligent' comments? Have you read his stuff? His idea of 'civil and intelligent' includes no dissing of Obama.

"Hell, I never vote for anybody, I always vote against." --W.C. Fields

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carl29:

Thank God for me this time Barack is runing, and I am more than happy to be voting FOR Barack Obama, being involved in the campaign FOR Barack Obama, contributing money FOR Barack Obama. What a previlege to be an American and having Barack running for president!!!!

*If more people had been FOR Hillary she could have made it or at least would not be in debt like she is. What a blessing to be FOR someone!

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boskop:

what strikes me as the most interesting phenomenon in this race of all other races is the fluidity quotient that cbs has addressed with a bit of wonder. when they lump together the female vote with the undecideds the number approaches well over 20%.

there is much shuffling under the radar that cannot be tracked or assessed until after the conventions. or at least one would think.

if the hillary contingent stages an effective protest in denver it will simply open old wounds. i am quite sure obama'll be working his brains out in hawaii to strike the perfect chord in order to avoid further hemoraging.

as for obamite's happiness at these poll stats, they should take further comfort from the fact that even on the so called anti obama networks (untrue though that may be) such as fox, there are virtually no video clips of mccain's daily stumping but a veritable glut of obama's.

they (fox) have decided wrongly as far as i cam concerned, that this election is a referendum on Obama and really has nothing to do with mccain.

so carl and mike and all you red hot tire kickers should rest content that mccain is buried under unused video tape, sound and coverage and that your man is surging once again....

hail to the chief!!!

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eugene:

The demographics is not with the republican party and they know it,obama should win by 6%,because the white vote will be only 75%,obama have 20% of the vote already,that means mccain have to beat obama by 17% with the white vote,this is something the media is not telling you guys,the white vote has been decreasing every election,in other words the gop has got a big hill to climb

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LAWSON:

A SIX POINT LEAD IS A LANDSILDE FOR OBAMA. PEOPLE DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO THESE POLLS. WHAT MATTER IS THE ELECTROAL COLLEAGE A 6 POINTS IS LIKE 300 TO 320 ELECTORAL VOTES THAT WHERE MCCAIN HAVE PROMBLEMS. DO NOT LOOK AT THE NATIONAL LOOK A STATE BY STATE POLLS OBAMA COULD AND WILL WIN THESE THING IF MCCAIN STEP UP BUT REALITY IS MCCAIN DO NOT STAND A CHANCE BECAUSE OF KARL ROVE BANDITS

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