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POLL: CBS/New York Times Iowa and New Hampshire


Two new CBS News/New York Times statewide surveys (CBS story, results; Times story, results) of likely caucus goers in Iowa and likely primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted 11/2 through 11/12) finds:

Iowa

  • Among 793 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 25%) narrowly leads former Sen. John Edwards (23%) and Sen. Barack Obama (22%) in a statewide caucus; Gov. Bill Richardson trails at 12%.
  • Among 480 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads former Gov. Mike Huckabee (27% to 21%); former Mayor Rudy Giuliani trails at 15%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 9%.

New Hampshire

  • Among 471 Democrats, Clinton leads Obama (37% to 22%) in a statewide primary; Edwards trails at 9%, Richardson at 6%, Rep. Dennix Kucinich at 5%.
  • Among 302 Republicans, Romney (at 34%) leads Giuliani and Sen. John McCain (both at 16%); Rep. Ron Paul trails at 8%, Huckabee at 6%, Thompson at 5%.

All other candidates receive less than five percent each. Full results here.

 

Comments
Mike S.:

3 Wows...

1. Huckabee is on fire in Iowa. Unless some attack ads stop him, I think he'll probably take the Iowa primary.

2. Ron Paul has passed Thompson and Huckabee in New Hampshire. As improbable as it seemed a few months ago, he might just peak at the perfect time in January with a very strong showing.

3. Looks like Obama, Clinton, and Edwards pretty much have an equal shot at taking Iowa. Just when you thought Hillary had pulled away, the race gets more exciting (at least on the early state level).

So does that mean everything we thought in October will be false come February?...yeah, looks that way.

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NCSteve:

Is it just me? Granted, my grades in my long ago survey research and probability and statistics classes were not my best. However, when I saw that both polls of less than a thousand people in each state were conducted over the course of ten, count 'em, ten days, and ten very eventful days in Ia and NH at that, I pretty much dumped this one into the Magic 8-Ball and Ouija board category.

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