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POLL: CBS/Times National


CBS News (story, 2008, Iraq/Economy, Race, Hispanics)/
New York Times (story, results)
7/7-14/08; 1,462 RV

National
Obama 45, McCain 39

 

Comments
marctx:

The very funny Colbert Report pointed out that the polls show people who believe Obama is a Muslim increased from 10 to 12%. Also, that people who believe Obama is Jewish increased by one percent. I have not opinion about that. Just that you should think about it.

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Four new national polls all show Obama ahead, by margins of: 3 (ABC), 4 (Rass. tracking), 6 (CBS), and 9 (Q). These four polls average out to an Obama national lead of 5.5 percent, not very different from several weeks ago.

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carl29:

Except for Newsweek, almost all pollsters have not shown any big movement among the electorate. I think that after the conventions nothing is going to happen with the polls. People will start tunning in September. As to right now, just political junkies, like us, pay attention to what's going on.

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Gambrills:

I don't understand why the NYT recalled/reinterviewed African American and non-English households from previous surveys. It is not like they were calling into a small area with a small number of eligible respondents -- this was a national survey.

Black and Hispanic respondents were oversampled for purposes of analysis. Households from past surveys containing self-identified black or Hispanic respondents were re-called for this survey.

In addition, past households with non-English-speaking residents were also called back and offered a Spanish questionnaire. These past surveys were originally conducted in spring 2008. Polls from earlier months were also drawn on for additional black respondents.

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OGLiberal:

And Rasmussen's daily tracking is starting to move back to the norm. This is a 4-6% race at this point and has been pretty much since the Dem primary ended. As an Obama supporter, I'd be happier if his gap were greater but I can't complain about the stability.

The big story, however, per the NYT, is that Obama isn't bridging the racial divide. As an example of this, they point out that while he has an 84% approval rating among blacks, he only has a 31% approval rating among whites. Of course, what they fail to highlight is that a) his overall approval rating is 8 pt better than McCain's, 39-31, and b) McCain's approval rating among white voters is only 35%. Obama's "who will you vote for" numbers among whites are on par if not better than traditional Dem presidential candidate numbers among

What the NYT doesn't mention, in addition to McCain's low approval rating among whites, is that his approval ratings with Hispanics are dismal (low 20s) and even worse among blacks (single digits). Isn't it McCain who isn't briding the racial gap? O yeah, and McCain's losing by 6 overall...so wouldn't it be more important for him to win over more whites, blacks, and Hispanics?

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onelightonvoice:

The CBS-Times poll showed that the people who think marctx is a Klingon midget increased from 78 to 89 percent.


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1magine:

Gallup's last tracking has it back at 4-5, still not listed here. However, the big story is the lack of the story in the MSM. They report it as "a close race" (please add scary sound effects and voice), when in fact it VERY CLEAR that a 2% popular vote equates to a 90% certainty of an electoral vote win and 3% popular vote lead equates to a 97% certainty of an electoral vote win. Could you imagine hearing that on ABC, CBS NBC or even MSNBC? Why then they would need to discuss something other than why isn't Obama pulling away with a 25% popular vote lead? Its all ridiculous. It reminds me of the post WI primary race. Mathematically the Dem primary was over. And for 2 months we had to hear how it was going to be a dog fight to the end.

It is still silly season.

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Undecided:

I will remind 1magine.. that the Democratic primary was NOT over until the superdelegates committed... because Obama did not have enough committed delegates. Close (closest) primary race by all standards. If it was not a "dog fight" then why could not Obama close the deal earlier? He lost in South Dakota of all places.

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Undecided:

FYI....

Yesterday's Gallup Poll___ Obama 47% to McCain 43%.
The narrative ends with "The bottom line: at this point, the presidential race appears to remain quite competitive."
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108835/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Slight-Advantage.aspx

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Undecided:

I am focusing on the following info because in 2004 I was VERY optimistic about Kerry, especially because of the Iraq War.

This July 2008 CBS poll includes a reality check "The race between McCain and Obama appears to be more fluid than the 2004 battle between Democratic nominee John Kerry and President George W. Bush. "

As explained___The June poll was also a six point differential (Obama 48, McCain 42). Note that each candidates lost 3 points over the last month.

In July more than 10% voters are now undecided, which is twice that from June. And 28% say they may change their mind. In June 2004, 6 % were undecided and 20% said they could change.

This almost 1/3 voters not fully committed is consistent with other polls. "Fluid" is a good descriptor.

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Paul:

At what margin in popular vote is the electoral college vote a lock?

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Undecided:

I am focusing on the following info because in 2004 I was VERY optimistic about Kerry, especially because of the Iraq War.

This July 2008 CBS poll includes a reality check "The race between McCain and Obama appears to be more fluid than the 2004 battle between Democratic nominee John Kerry and President George W. Bush. "

As explained___The June poll was also a six point differential (Obama 48, McCain 42). Note that each candidates lost 3 points over the last month.

In July more than 10% voters are now undecided, which is twice that from June. And 28% say they may change their mind. In June 2004, 6 % were undecided and 20% said they could change.

This almost 1/3 voters not fully committed is consistent with other polls. "Fluid" is a good descriptor.

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1magine:

Undecided - mathematically it was over for pledged delegates. Yes, the unpledged or Super Delegates could have gone against the pledged delegates - but the vast majority had said they would not. Why did Obama continue? Because Hillary continued. If she had accepted after WI that she could no longer catch him in pledged delegates then it would have been a very easy coast from there. I'm glad she didn't. It toughened him up considerably, made him a better debater, and forced him into states, he might not have otherwise gone and in the ned, I think helped him as much as it cost him time, money and energy not fighting McCain. But mathematically - it was over.

Furthermore - no such thing as a lock - but as I posted previously, fivethirtyeight has 1% pop = 755 chance electoral win, 2% pop = 90% chance, and 3% = 97% chance of elecotral win. Again, one can argue, "it's so close..." but the math is the math. I will bet my Christmas bonus that if either candidate takes a 3-4% popular vote win, it will be an electoral landslide of Kennedy proportions.

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onelightonvoice:

ROTFLMMFAO!! Hilarious stuff! Keep it up, nickberry!

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onelightonvoice:

1magine -

Agreed regarding the fact that the race was essentially over in February. Apparently some people have bought into the BS that hillary had a chance to win after Obama trounced her in 10 straight states. After that, he was just coasting and getting ready for the general.

I'm coming around to your view of it actually being worth the time and money - especially the money. My thinking is that if you took all the funds that both candidates spent after February and saved it for the general and Congressional races, Dems would have been better off. But, the exposure that Obama got from a long contest may have been worthwhile in terms of defeating McCain more easily. I believe either way, McCain is going to lose - but does a blowout win by Obama override less Congressional race support?

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