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POLL: CBS National, Rasmussen CA, Suffolk CA, InsiderAdvantage GA/TN, NMSU NM


CBS News
(story, GOP results, Dem results)

National
Clinton 41, Obama 41... McCain 46, Romney 23


Rasmussen Reports

California
Obama 45, Clinton 44

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Suffolk University (release)

California
Obama 40, Clinton 39

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Insider Advantage

Georgia
Romney 30, McCain 29, Huck 28... Obama 51, Clinton 36

Tennessee
McCain 32, Huck 30, Romney 22... Clinton 55, Obama 35

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New Mexico State University

New Mexico
Obama 48, Clinton 42... McCain 44, Romney 20

 

Comments
kristoph:

The CBS/NYT poll says Clinton and Obama are tied nationally but in the Feb 05 states Clinton has a n 18 point lead.

How is that possible, exactly?

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Phil:

Wow. Another batch of strong results for Obama in a number of contests. California, obviously, is huge, but the New Mexico numbers are big too - is Obama making back ground among Latino voters?

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Phil:

kristoph - Presumably it is possible because of those other 28 states.

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fourth:

Or, it could be because 490 "dem voters" were included in the survey, so when you cut that in half for super tuesday states only, you end up with a wildly high margin of error.

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kristoph:

Phil,

I am not sure I would agree that a poll with a 1 point spread with 20+% undecideds is indicative of anything.

I do agree the NM is a very positive sign for Obama although note the total sample size was 400 and the only apparent filer was dem/gop (conducted by university students).

Regarding the NYT poll. The problem I have, is that if certain pollsters are to be believed - like Zogby - Obama is close to the popular vote lead in the big 2/5 states whereas the NYT poll has him 18 point behind.

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ca-ind:

One thing about Zogby pools is, it has been wrong many times by widr margins, copared to other poolsters. I wouldn't trust their numbers

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jz:

regarding NYT/cbs poll, 14% are undecided in the nationwide number, maybe for the 2/5 states, the undecided number is much smaller (people are forced to make a decision one day before the election). If you alloacate all of the undecided voters in 2/5 states, about 1/2 of 14%,you get clinton's 48% vote shares, close to the 49% published number. if this is true, it looks good for Clinton. the

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