POLL: CBS National, Rasmussen CA, Suffolk CA, InsiderAdvantage GA/TN, NMSU NM
Eric Dienstfrey | February 3, 2008
CBS News
(story, GOP results, Dem results)
National
Clinton 41, Obama 41... McCain 46, Romney 23
Rasmussen Reports
California
Obama 45, Clinton 44
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Suffolk University (release)
California
Obama 40, Clinton 39
Georgia
Romney 30, McCain 29, Huck 28... Obama 51, Clinton 36
Tennessee
McCain 32, Huck 30, Romney 22... Clinton 55, Obama 35
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New Mexico State University
New Mexico
Obama 48, Clinton 42... McCain 44, Romney 20
By Eric Dienstfrey | February 3, 2008 11:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments
The CBS/NYT poll says Clinton and Obama are tied nationally but in the Feb 05 states Clinton has a n 18 point lead.
How is that possible, exactly?
Posted on February 3, 2008 11:36 PM
Wow. Another batch of strong results for Obama in a number of contests. California, obviously, is huge, but the New Mexico numbers are big too - is Obama making back ground among Latino voters?
Posted on February 4, 2008 12:31 AM
kristoph - Presumably it is possible because of those other 28 states.
Posted on February 4, 2008 12:58 AM
Or, it could be because 490 "dem voters" were included in the survey, so when you cut that in half for super tuesday states only, you end up with a wildly high margin of error.
Posted on February 4, 2008 1:18 AM
Phil,
I am not sure I would agree that a poll with a 1 point spread with 20+% undecideds is indicative of anything.
I do agree the NM is a very positive sign for Obama although note the total sample size was 400 and the only apparent filer was dem/gop (conducted by university students).
Regarding the NYT poll. The problem I have, is that if certain pollsters are to be believed - like Zogby - Obama is close to the popular vote lead in the big 2/5 states whereas the NYT poll has him 18 point behind.
Posted on February 4, 2008 1:38 AM
One thing about Zogby pools is, it has been wrong many times by widr margins, copared to other poolsters. I wouldn't trust their numbers
Posted on February 4, 2008 2:59 AM
regarding NYT/cbs poll, 14% are undecided in the nationwide number, maybe for the 2/5 states, the undecided number is much smaller (people are forced to make a decision one day before the election). If you alloacate all of the undecided voters in 2/5 states, about 1/2 of 14%,you get clinton's 48% vote shares, close to the 49% published number. if this is true, it looks good for Clinton. the
Posted on February 4, 2008 7:43 AM
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