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POLL: Chicago Tribune Illinois Primary


A new Chicago Tribune/WGN statewide survey of likely primary voters in Illinois (conducted 12/9 through 12/13) finds:

  • Among 500 likely Republican primary voters, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani edges out former Gov. Mike Huckabee (23% to 21%) in a statewide primary; former Gov. Mitt Romney trails at 14%, Sen. John McCain at 12%, Former Sen. Fred Thompson at 11%.
  • Among 500 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton (50% to 25) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 7%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4.4% for likely Republican primary voters and likely Democratic primary voters.

 

Comments
Chris S.:

I was wondering if you guys might comment on the poll of Michigan (conducted by "Marketing Resource Group") mentioned in this blog post:

http://info.detnews.com/redesign/blogs/dcblog/index.cfm?blogid=376

which has some bloggers describing the results as "McCain is leading in Michigan". Do you know where one can find the complete results for this poll, and does it make sense to include "Democrats [and independents] who say they might vote in the Republican race" in a GOP primary poll?

If I remember correctly, there were reports of heavy Democratic crossover for the GOP primary in MI in 2000 (when the Dem. primary was being held on a later date). This time, there's the issue of the DNC stripping MI of its delegates (and the corresponding Democratic candidate boycott of the state), which might lead some Dems to vote in the GOP race instead. But is there any sensible way to construct a poll to account for this?

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Paul:

There are only two polls I have tracked in Michigan where McCain was ahead: March 2007 EPIC, and May 2007 ARG. I am not aware of a more recent poll showing McCain ahead in Michigan. In this poll in Illinois, McCain does not fare well.

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cliff:

Does someone know what organization if any conducted the Tribune Poll? Or was it done internally?

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