POLL: Civitas North Carolina
Eric Dienstfrey | June 17, 2008
Civitas Institute (R)
Tel Opinion Research
North Carolina
McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 2
Sen: Dole (R-i) 48, Hagan (D) 38, Cole (L) 1
Gov: Perdue (D) 43, McCrory (R) 41, Munger (L) 2
By Eric Dienstfrey | June 17, 2008 1:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments
Bad news for McCain. Obama getting +30% of white vote. This is better than Kerry in 04.
Also in 04 26% of voters in NC were AA and this poll has them at only 18%. They will surely show up for Obama in greater numbers than in 04. Also AA are 22% of population in NC so 18% AA turnout is just wrong. If they had 22% AA in the poll Obama would be ahead
42.17% to McCain 42.05
This lead would be higher if we had 26% AA turnout as for Kerry in 04
Posted on June 17, 2008 2:42 PM
I also noticed that. How does it come that they put AA turnout at 18% when they were 27% of voters in 2004 in North Carolina. Will African Americans turnout in such small numbers for Obama? Logic tells me not. I think that AA will make around 30% of the voters in North Carolina this Nov. add to that 30% of the white vote that Obama is getting right now and there McSame goes, dead heat. Poor grampy!! He'll be very, very busy this fall.
Posted on June 17, 2008 4:32 PM
My guess is that the polling company just reported the raw data for all the voters who responded to the poll, without adjustments for turnout models of any kind. I suspect that is a pretty good choice by this pollster: report the internals and let the reader make whatever adjustment fits her fancy.
kos has an analysis of the internals, including a recomputation of the totals weighted to match actual turnout in 2004. With the 2004 turnout ratios, the poll is Obama 46, McCain 42.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/17/144759/954/597/537398
Posted on June 17, 2008 10:31 PM
Even more interesting is if you look and see that they have 87% of blacks voting for Obama in this poll. Do you think Obama will get a lower % of blacks vs McCain than he did against Hillary? The black vote was ALWAYS under-sampled for Obama, he outperformed it in every single state as far as I can remember. At least every state with a large black population. Granted there are black republicans too... but seriously... how many? And how many of them will vote for mccain over obama? If the number reaches 90-92% or higher (which it could) an the turnout is even at kerry levels it would be a decent size led for obama.
Posted on June 18, 2008 4:31 PM
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