Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: CNN National


CNN/Opinion Research Corporation
6/26-29/08; 906 RV, 3.5%

National
Obama 50, McCain 45
Obama 46, McCain 43, Nader 6, Barr 3

To see how these numbers compare with the current trend, view our National Presidential chart here.

 

Comments

Per RCP list of national polls it has been since May 1 (USA Today Polls) that McCain was ahead in a national poll and that was by 1%. Since then 31 national polls have Obama up and some of them were 10% or more.
Clearly McCain has his work cut out for him.

____________________

Undecided:

Interesting. CNN, Rasmussen, Gallup at 5 point difference within similar time span. And Pollster has the average at Obama 48.1 to 43.6 (4.5 points). All seem about right for a national poll.

I have CNN tuned in right now awaiting their analysis of the 3rd party candidates. Hope to get some more info than the article.

____________________

kingsbridge77:

I'd love to see what Newsweek has to say about these polls all showing Obama up 5%. Do they think McCain had a huge bump since being down 12% a week ago.

____________________

kingsbridge77:

By the way, the difference is 3%, not 5%, because we know for sure that Nader and Barr are running for president. Why pretend the race will be only between McCain and Obama?

____________________

Here's the headline to the CNN story that accompanies the poll.

'CNN poll: Obama, McCain in a statistical dead heat'

I'm not sure why a 5-point lead in a poll with a margin of error of +/- 3.5% is a "statistical dead heat" but whatever. Based on the '04 turnout a 1.5% victory projects to about 1.8 million more votes for Obama then for McCain. Doesn't "dead heat" mean tie?

____________________

Dan_in_upstate_NY:

Nader is getting 6%? Surely that's off, especially since he will not even be on the ballot in many states.

____________________

Allen:

I think this is part of the narrative that the media wants to support. If you look at the electoral votes though, the race is not currently close. See for example http://electoral-projection.net

____________________

Svensgaard:

That url doesnt appear to work - what does it show?

____________________

cinnamonape:

It'd be interesting to see if the Barr and Nader votes have an impact on electoral votes. I'd suspect that Barr hurts McCain far more than Nader hurts Obama in electorally-sensitive states.

____________________

Undecided:

Nader has already filed petitions to get on the ballot in New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Illinois, and Hawaii.

It seems that in New Mexico and Colorado that there could be a Nader effect there and impact the Obama strategy.

In a Strategic Vision poll for Georgia released today: McCain 51_Obama 43_Barr_3.

Barr is not that well known outside of Georgia, except as one of the Congressmen who led the impeachment of Clinton. And only 3% in his home state is not yet a threat for McCain.

____________________

Allen:

@Svensgaard

Here's the site that shows the difference in the race when you look at electoral votes rather than national popular vote

http://www.election-projection.net

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR