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POLL: CNN National (8/29-31)


CNN/Opinion Research Corp.
8/29-31/08; 927 Registered voters, margin of sampling error +/- 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviewer

National
Obama 49, McCain 48 (8/23-24: Obama 47, McCain 47)
Obama 46, McCain 44, Nader (i) 4, Barr (L) 2, McKinney (G)

 

Comments
straight talk:

Mccain is in trouble! His pick up of Palin is starting to turn off Women!

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Patrick:

Wow, they're statistically tied after the Democratic convention and Obama's speech, but before the Republican convention or Sarah Palin's convention introduction? That's potentially disastrous for the Democrats. With all the advantages (and by historical standards), Obama should be ahead by at least 10 pts. And now Gustav gives McCain a big chance to look "presidential" and magnanimous (by suspending the first day of activities), it gives them a great excuse to cancel the Bush/Cheney speeches (which is great), and there'll be an even bigger audience for Palin's speech on Wed. and McCain's on Thurs. I never thought any Democrat could lose this year, but it is starting to look like Obama and Biden are on their way...

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straight talk:

Does anyone in America including McCain believe that this race is Close? If so then why did Mccain gamble on the Vp Choice?

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straight talk:

Does anyone in America including McCain believe that this race is Close? If so then why did Mccain gamble on the Vp Choice?

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sjt22:

@ Patrick

Check the dates. This is before the Republican Convention but it is after the Palin introduction, which was at noon on 8/29.

I think CNN is somehow different than other polls, as they have so few undecideds. Gallup, Rass and others have 5-10 percent undecided, and less if they don't included leaners, but CNN has only 3 percent. Does anyone know if/how their survey setup is different which seems to be pushing both Obama and McCain's numbers higher?

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zotz:

UNO- 927 is too small for a nat. poll.
DOS- This is an RV poll, no filter.
TRES- I have to back to my Spanish lesson.

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straight talk:

Why did he gamble! This gorgeous palin is going to cost him! Because once the focuse is on politics once more she is going to be a sitting duck! She will be vetted publicly! obama/biden is up three nationally as always!

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player:

Well, Well, Well.

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Evolve:

WOW the pick of Palin is very confusing in so many ways.
1. judgement, met her once knew very little about her.
2. turning off Clintons women voters. How could anyone think that just because she's female that they would vote for her. I don't she and Hillary have even one issue that is similar.
3. very little education and experience. The mayor of a town of 8,000 and the governor of 700,000 for only 2 yrs. WOW that's not even half the size of a mid-size city like Kansas City.
4. who in their right mind would tab someone
as their VP who has on going corruption procedings, that will finalize and be reported on 5 days before the election.

On the positive side she does seem to energize the base .... RISKY MOVE if ya ask me.

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kingsbridge77:

Since conventions almost always provide a bounce, it's safe to state that the McCain/Palin ticket will soon take the lead.

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Brutus1_:

Is that before or after "babygate" breaks??

ROTFLMAO @ silly repubs.

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jkiel1:

Here is a little food for thought for some of you who can't abide Sarah Palin for her position as a Prolife feminist. You need to listen to what she says. 1. She calls herself a feminist 2. She is a labor union dues paying member and so is her husband. 3. She has values. 4. She elected to have her Downs Syndrome baby but did she say she intended to overturn Roe v Wade? No. 5. Until she says otherwise, how do you know she isn't tolerant toward women with a different position on abortion? 6. Republicans selected McCain as the nominee or will soon and he is Pro choice.

So, before you condemn Palin to the trash heap, why not consider she is pretty much everything most democrat women want except she choses to be pro life personally.

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jkiel1:

One additional comment I forgot to add. If people refuse to vote for McCain/ Palin because she happens to be prolife, does that mean you will vote for them because McCain is Prolife. At least think about the logic.

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Paul:

Let's be clear, whether you or pro-choice or not. McCain and Palin are both pro-life. Obama and Biden are both pro-choice. Second, Palin believes in creationism not evolution. Third, Palin does not believe in global warming. So if you want to vote for an individual who is pro-life, pro-creationism and anti-global warming, then your issues are her issues. But those certainly are not positions endorsed by the other woman of note in this campaign season, Senator Clinton.

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straight talk:

This small sampling shows mccain losing support of women! That is why he picked this woman! I think obama will carry florida now!

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Will someone kindly post a link to the poll's "internals," when such a document becomes available? The first question I would have is, what are the Party ID proportions in the sample?

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Evolve:

The historic evidence on convention bumps is inconclusive as discussed by pollster.com's article : /blogs/bounce_update.html

These national polls don't really mean much as Gore found out in 2004. Its all about the delegates and McCann knows he's in trouble, that's why he went for the "Hail Mary" on Palin. The avg of all the polls have McCann down by 5-10pts in; "Pennsylvania 7pts, Wisconsin 10pts, Michigan 5pts, Minnesota 7pts, Iowa 7pts". McCann has been trendind downward in all of these traditional Dem./pro union states the last 4 months, it will be very hard for him to win one in these economic times, thats 260 EV. Where he has to win is in Virgina, Colorado, Flordia and Ohio and at this time he trails by 2pct in all but Florida where he's up by 2. Worse yet he's at 12 month lows in Virgina and Ohio and trending downward.

Time to refocus

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Here's the link to a brief CNN write up about the poll, which has some details about the poll internals.

I do not place much stock in this poll as it is being conducted over Labor Day weekend and several events that are capable of changing public opinion are occuring all at once. My other complaint about CNN/ORC is that they do not publish any more information about the poll than the brief news story. Caveat Emptor: Buyer Beware.

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Evolve:

You can get info on about 50 polling stations "RAS, CNN, GALLOP for just a few" at www.pollster.com. Good articles /nice breakdowns

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Sergei Groinka:

Here in Idaho people are going crazy after Palin. Expect +50 for McCain in Idaho.

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KipTin:

Here is a nice number for McCain-- Friday and Saturday McCain received $7 million donations.

Actually, Obama is in trouble. How is he going to break the statistical tie in his favor? He already had the VP/campaign bounce (which are fading fast according to daily tracking polls). Now there are only the debates ahead. Does he have any other game changer lined up?

McCain will be focusing on ENERGY which is also Palin's expertise. Energy = Economy + National security. This is a winning strategy for the existing national circumstances.

P.S. As governor Palin created a "Climate Change Subcabinet" to prepare a climate change strategy for Alaska... So I do not know how it is that one can claim she does not believe in global warming.

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player:

In denial, that seems to be the underlying theme at OB hq ever time their poll numbers drop. They have ready made excuses; sample isn't large enough; the pollster is a republican; its labor day weekend; it didn't rain on this day in 72; Hilary forgot to wear her orange pantsuit; the laundry list goes on and on.

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Andrew_in_California:

How about Obama's numbers really haven't changed for a significant amount of time since May? (+3% on McCain).

I'd love to see whatever bounce McCain gets and how soon it'll go negative again. /shrug

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crackbaldo:

@kiptin:

"... ENERGY which is also Palin's expertise." Palin doesn't have any expertise. She's a right-wing, small-town mayor loon with a degree from Idaho.

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@Evolve: Hmmm...I think I know a little something about pollster.com :)

Point me to the CNN/ORC survey instrument, crosstabs, and detailed survey methodology statement and I'll post an even larger smiley face, because I cannot find them on the ORC or CNN websites. You have to take it as a matter of faith that there is not something screwing going on with the internal demos of these CNN/ORC polls, that question wording/ordering is not framing/priming responses, etc. More transparency is needed for us to have confidence that CNN/ORC knows what they are doing, particularly since CNN uses these polls as a primary source for on-air commentary.

I suggest that the McCain supporters read the CNN news story (I posted the link above) rather than infer spin from the horserace number. The news in this poll is generally not favorable for McCain. 51% of respondents said the Democratic convention made them more likely to support Obama, the Democrats favorability ratings went up and the Republicans went down, yet Obama only gets 49% of the vote compared with 47% in their previous poll, while McCain picks up 1 percentage point from 47% to 48%. The responses on these internal questions are more consistent with the "bounce" observed in the Gallup and Rassmussen daily tracking polls, so I am inclined to discount the CNN/ORC horserace numbers until we get further confirming information from other polls.

And as for Palin, only one VP pick is viewed as less qualified: Dan Quayle. Women are actually less likely to vote for McCain as a result of the pick, so as I've argued previously on pollster.com, "Clinton supporters" who favor McCain are likely largely an artifact of polling methodology (this classification of voters also arises from a CNN/ORC poll, which is why we need more transparency). It may be that McCain's campaign would have been wise to heed my advice not to trust the spin of the media and their own campaign: that Clinton supporters are so disaffected that they will bolt the Democratic Party, and would be even more likely to do so if McCain nominated a woman for VP. McCain does increase his support among men in this poll, but I suspect that has to do with her cultural conservative values (best scenario for McCain, but argues another pick could have done the same) or may just be a Republican rally behind the choice (the worst case for McCain since he will end up losing some women in the long run). Still, I am not inclined to trust this CNN/ORC poll and I expect that more well-formed opinions will emerge in the coming weeks as the public observes Palin in action.

One further comment: Palin is a clear signal that McCain's campaign intends to abandon the "experience" attack on Obama. Obama was able to effectively pivot against Clinton on this line of attack during the primaries and I suspect the McCain campaign realized that it was not working for them, either. The new campaign message is apparently, to borrow from Bush in 2000, "Reformer with Results." I'll be curious to see if Obama's numbers of "experienced to be president" start increasing now that McCain has embarked on another campaign message.

Campaigns that constantly shift their message can win battles, but they usually lose the war. Obama's campaign has essentially stuck with the same message for 18 months now while McCain has used a kitchen sink strategy. I think this is the last chance for McCain to change his message for the duration of the campaign. He can't afford to continue to muddy his message by changing it too often, particularly as we enter the post-Labor Day phase when the inattentive public starts perking up their ears.

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Robi:

To crackbaldo:

Hey now...it's a bachelors in journalism...that makes her way more qualified to pick a supreme court justice than Obama who only has taught constitutional law at Chicago University....oh wait...IT DOESN'T. Biden teaches constitutional law too? Wow. It's almost like they actually have some qualifications when it comes to one of the most important duties for picking a justice.

I'm sure a bachelors in journalism can help her pick a justice if McCain can't...

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Stillow:

Nice bounce Obama. CNN has it BO +1, Zogby at McCain +2......hmmmm. Great speech. Nothing more than a liberal talking points speech that was well delivered. Even nonsense in a box with a bow on it is still nonsense.

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Robi:

To Stillow:

Democratic talking points? He is the democratic platform after all. Plus I give credit for the timing of McCain's VP pick especially when it's as surprising as Palin. But the timing is the only thing he did right with this VP pick. Conspiracy theory aside (I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt until major news organizations take it as credible if that ever happens) because that's not worth arguing, he was able to subdue the bounce that Obama's speech would give as pollsters on this website have commented on. Also, pollsters also rightly explain that convention bumps usually have a week to get the bump. This is surely not the case for this year seeing as there's a weekend in between which was not about Obama's speech, but about McCain's VP.

Obama gave a great speech and saying so won't kill you. You should audition for Fox and Friends.

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Robi:

To Stillow Again:

You're the same person I'm talking to in the other forum so let's stick to the other one to simplify things. For things between you and me that is.

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Basil:

Palin's choice is a Rovian move which will energize the GOP's nutcase base and help Dems realize what they're fighting for this time. Bush thought God was was talking to him, but it was only Cheney on the intercom telling him to invade Iraq. Now 100,000 people are dead and the Rovians are using Sarah Palin to bring a politically correct God back into the sick Republican mix.

Bull****

Does anyone think McCain himself shares Sarah Palin's religiosity? Does anyone think Karl Rove believes in anything except the great game? Does anyone think McCain's tactics are anything other than more neocon Rovian cynicism?

Using God as a political tool makes a mockery of religion. That's why the Taliban are so repulsive.

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brambster:

Just to clear some air for those that are interested...

This Babygate thing was a sham. There was nothing but some highly speculative photos and some made up stuff about her daughter being out of school for 5 months with mono. There's absolutely no proof of that at all that I have seen.

If there's a story here, it is likely about the Daily Kos participant by the name of ArcXIX that broke the news. The only previous post was 3 years ago in support of their Christian faith. Not sure where this person would get such a scoop from. At this point that sounds more suspect to me than Babygate.

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in2veep:

very bad signs in this poll for Senator McCain:

1. three quarters of those polled believed that this was a calculated move to attract Hillary Clinton voters. Very dangerous in an election when voters are counting on change

2. The most dangerous sign I believe (maybe fatal) is that 50 percent of voters believe she isn't qualified. If the Dem's can hook this with Senator McCain's age, the results can be dramatic. This won't play out like Bush Quayle because the country is going through some trying times. In Gallup USA poll only 18 percent thought Biden was not qualified.

by the way: obama's lead is bigger then this very small poll suggests (gallup +6)

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in2veep:

Hey guys does any one else share my view that this was the worst possible pick. It completely disqualifies the experience argument since you put an Alaskan beauty queen at a 72 year old heart beat away from the presidency. what is more, the experience argument was actually working since the polls were getting very tight, and any uncertainty on the international scene could have swayed the election in McCain's favor. Now it could work against McCain. This also shows that the McCain campaign was very desperate with this more, they don't trust the polls they fear Obama's ground game. The Dems really need to hammer home the link between Mccain's age and her in-experience and extreme right views. I was very skeptic of Obama's chances but i think he will win now. McCain is to undisciplined!

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Evolve:

WOW Idaho by +50, a red state with only 4 EV's that McCann was already up by 18. Nice map changing pick

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thoughtful:

@Brambster

Sarah Palin is Dick Cheney's daughter or at least shares in almost all of his beliefs. I don't know why people should be attacking her personally, she is what she is.

McCain is standing for President and agrees with discredited Bush 90%+ of the time and has tapped a young populist governor as his Vice President who agrees seemingly 100% with Dick Cheney!

There is a role reversal difference though, McCain doesn't consider the VP to do anything other than attend on behalf of US the less important (foreign)state funerals and enquiring daily as to the president's health. Where as Bush abdicated foreign policy responsibility to VP Cheney. We know how disastrous that has been.

McCain spent less than an hour interviewing Sarah Palin by all accounts, and it would appear that whereas Cheney did the vetting of all candidates including himself! Sarah Palin was equally vetted. She is a hugely popular choice with the right wing (Dick Cheney)base of the Republican Party.

She does not think that Global Warming is man made, etc etc and fully supports the Bush/Cheney/McCain economic and foreign policy. If you like she maybe a woman, but policy wise, there is nothing to seperate Sarah Palin from Dick Cheney.

Thus this pick moves the GOP ticket closer and closer to a continuation of same Bush/Cheney failed policies somehow with a maverick presentational twist.

If Sarah says the same thing as Cheney then whats the difference - age and gender? She shopuld be attacked for the failed policies of Dick Cheney and George Bush, she agrees with them let her defend them.

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Brutus1_:

"Bree" Palin apparently took to wearing a babysuit to pretend she was pregnant to cover for her daughter who was pregnant with Trig. Yikes. Right out of Desperate Housewives. Good God.

Too bad for her there is way too much contradicting evidence, including photos of her not wearing a babysuit during the third trimester. At seven months she looks like one would at 2 months. Busted.

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thoughtful:

Brutus1_

Are you a GOP agent?

There is no truth to this story and even if there were leave it alone!

Attack Palin/McCain Cheney/Bush on substance and policy.

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Brutus1_:

"I'm an Alaskan, not an American. I've got no use for America or her damned institutions." - Joe Vogler, founder of the Alaskan Independence Party

What is Sarah Palin's relationship with the Alaskan Independence Party (AIP)?

The Vice Chairman of the AIP, Dexter Clark, says this of Palin: "Our current governor who I mentioned at the last conference, the one we were hoping would get elected, Sarah Palin, did get elected . . . .and there was a lot of talk about her moving up. She was an AIP member before she got the job as mayor . . . "


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/1/4231/18477/878/581881

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zotz:

Brutus1-
Are you Andrew Sullivan? Your post yesterday at 2:11 pm on the Daily Tracking thread is a direct copy from his blog.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Dang. McCain, in a 3-way race STILL cannot break 45%.

What about the Palin game changer? I thought she was going to turn this race upside down. I thought she was going to steal all those female votes from Obama?

Guess not.

The GOP will reach their high water mark on Friday after McCain's speech - assuming anyone besides die hard Righties is watching.

I can't wait for Palin to hit the campaign trail. What's the over/under on her first gaffe? Don't try to spin that one and say she's a great campaigner, Righties. EVERYONE makes gaffes, especially neophytes. She'll surprise us all right, once she explains why her record and policies are so far out of the mainstream to be considered "fringe." Can't wait, can't wait, can't wait!

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Brutus1_:

By the way, "babygate" IS about substance. She went around claiming she had a baby with Down's as proof of her pro-life stance and cred. If it is eventually shown that her daughter is the mother of that child, well then, there goes her honesty, pro-life chops, and any semblance of decency.


Exxon John/Bree Hodge 08!!

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KipTin:

This "90% of time" agreement is BS statistics. Almost all of Congress (Dems and GOP) agree when it comes to voting on everyday legislation. What is important are the individual votes on issues like the Bush/Cheney energy policy. Obama voted with Bush (as well as too many Dems did also) because it passed. McCain and Hillary voted against it. Obama and Dems also voted for FISA (aka voted with Bush). It is all really in the details, init?

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Brutus1_:

Wow, more rubbish from kiptin -

Still needs to learn math...

GO TROLL GO!

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KipTin:

Palin does not agree with Bush/Cheney policies nor is she a female Dick Cheney. She is NOT a neocon. Quit making stuff up.

As Governor Palin she created a Climate Change subcabinet to prepare a climate change strategy for Alaska. (That pretty well blows the idea that she does not believe in global warming.)

Thank God...McCain and Palin do not believe in the VP as the power center. They see a more traditional role similar to Al Gore who was put in charge of programs like "Reinventing Government," which by the way was successful and will probably be implemented again by McCain as part of his REFORM agenda.

McCain and Palin both support a different energy policy (read economic/national security policy) than Bush/Cheney. (Obama supported Bush/Cheney and demonstrated such with his voting for their energy policy.)

Bush did say he is against earmarks but he never used his veto pen to demonstrate a commitment, whereas you can be sure McCain will keep his word on that one.

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thoughtful:

KipTin/Undecided
McCain himself is on record as saying he agrees with GWB.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with supporting the President of the United States 90% of the time and being a "maverick" 10% of the time.

McCain should be proud of his record and so should supporters like you.

But don't deny it.

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thoughtful:

KipTin

Climate Change is Climate Change.

Sane people evidently you amongst them understand that Climate Change is caused by Global Warmimg which is "man made".The good Sarah as recently as last week would not accept that Global Warmimg is "man made".

Ergo Sarah Palin believes that Man did not evolve but is the result of intelligent design. I respect her views but I disagree with them. I believe that we evolved and I know that we - Mankind - have caused global warming.

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Brutus1_:

kiptin is so full of it. Please don't feed the troll. He is a liar and has repeatedly been busted for being a liar.

Here is Bree Hodge, I mean Sarah Palin, on climate change:

http://desmogblog.com/palin-denies-climate-change-realities-on-first-day-as-mccains-running-mate


"Maybe you should stop talking for awhile there champ...yeah, sit a few plays out."


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KipTin:

The "experience" argument had run its course. Time for a game changer. McCain was striving to get his "Maverick" brand up front and this did the trick. Both McCain and Palin are reformers, and if you have not noticed... REFORM is McCain's campaign theme.

So now it is REFORM vs. CHANGE. Reform means fix the stuff that is broken and keep that which is not. Change means whatever Obama's position is at that moment. You may have ignored the ads that portray Obama as worse than a "flip-flopper" because of his tendency to tell people what he thinks they want to hear rather than what he believes. The polls show that Obama is very vulnerable there, and McCain is very strong in running on his beliefs.

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thoughtful:

KipTin/Undecided

Obama is by his raison d'etre an agent for change. Certainly not a radical he is rather Pragmatic.

McCain is a political opportunist who has sold his soul to the hard religious right judging by his VP pick and how he continues to campaign. Reform/Change - he supports Bush's Socio-economic policies. He supports Bush Tax policy. He supports Bush's wars. Have i got that wrong.

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KipTin:

I am 100% correct in my statement. Palin believes in global warming.

You guys need to read up on global warming/climate change. You missed the FACT that global warming is occurring even without human contribution. The other fact is that humans are causing the phenomenon to occur at a faster rate.

John McCain (the guy running for President) has been working on climate change way before Obama was elected to the Senate. McCain cosponsored the FIRST Senate bill calling for mandatory greenhouse-gas reductions, the 2003 McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act, and has pushed a number of versions of the bill in years since.

Palin has her religious beliefs, but she does not let it overtake her very pragmatic approach to governance. Palin created a Climate Change subcabinet. What does that tell you?

P.S. Obamanation should not want this debate turn to religious viewpoints. Palin is a practicing Catholic, Biden is a Catholic who is pro-choice, McCain was raised Episcopalian and now attends a Southern Baptist church, and Obama spent TWENTY YEARS listening to hate speech against whites from Reverend Wright (aka Black Liberation Theology).

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zotz:

The religious right believes that God controls the climate and since the Rapture is imminent we really do not have to worry about the future. Palin's religious views are not clear and they are politically relevant. PicTin should cut out this "Don't go there" talk.

IT IS OUR DUTY TO GO THERE!

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KipTin:

Obama is pragmatic? He will not even admit the surge in Iraq worked and even now says he would still vote against it.

Almost all of Congress voted for the Iraq War (Dems and GOP) and Obama never had to commit himself to a vote. (I mayself was always against the Irag War.) But now we are there and one needs to look to leadership to get us out. McCain bombarded Bush on the poor strategy and is responsible for getting the surge. I was not sure it would work, but McCain promoted the Petraeus strategy (aka surge) and it in fact did work. Now according to the polls most voters trust McCain on Iraq. I agree especially since Obama dismissed Petraeus and the surge.

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thoughtful:

Kiptin

You are a tryer!

We had an Ice Age that retreated millons of years ago.

Over a 100 million years Dinosaurs got wiped out.

Perhaps these events are natural and occur/evolve over tens of thousands of years.

The Greenhouse carbon gas emissions (Man Made) cause global warming and hence climate change over tens of years by comparison.

What Sarah Palin has set up is not the prevention of climate change by controlling these emissions etc but how to manage the climate change for the benefit of the Alaskans so I understand.

I am glad you mentioned the MCain/Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act name one concrete benefit or accomplishment in eliminating Carbon gas emissions in the US. Whilst the rest of the world signed up to the Kyoto Agreement George Bush And John McCain disavowed them. Even Bush accepts that man has man global warming now.

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John:

Argghh, why will CNN not release their crosstabs. The weekend after the democratic convention and no mention of support among independents and democratic voters. Since Obama has lost 6 points (about 1.75% overall) in republican support, perhaps due to the choice of Palin (a reasonable assumption but an assumption nevertheless CNN write-up and will it be temporary or long lasting?), that means he must have gained about 3.75 points overall, or 5.25 points, in the sub-groups of independents and democratic voters, although of course, with the usual caveat concerning margin of error. Also did Obama's drop in republican support mirror an increase with these voters by McCain? Would be nice to know CNN.

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Publius:

Didn't this used to be a site about polling?

And speaking of, has anyone looked at today's Rasmussen?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

After 3 days of Palin TV and Obama basically being off the radar, this GOP-slanted poll has Obama up 3. McCain's numbers with his base have improved with 51% of Republicans with a Very Favorable view of him (after how many months of running?). The poll also says that voters view both candidates as equally favorable, even among unaffiliated voters. I am not a member, so I couldn't look at the breakdown of female voters so I would appreciate it if someone could look that up.

With Gustav taking some of the sting out of the GOP convention, McCain will have a limited window to go after Obama, and any mention of the experience factor will be countered by the media and bloggers.

Not good news for McCain in this poll.

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Brutus1_:

http://desmogblog.com/palin-denies-climate-change-realities-on-first-day-as-mccains-running-mate


Again, for the knuckle-dragging lot who can't seem to comprehend logic or reason.

I like how morons think "the surge worked". Yeah, and what happens once our soldiers leave, you think everyone is going to play nice in Iraq?? You are so stupid.

We could have put a million troops in Iraq and then what? Yup, violence would have stopped. AND THEN WHAT?? That is the point, morons. We are policing a civil war. There is no "victory" or "surrender". Get a brain dimwits.


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KipTin:

I strongly prefer McCain's economic policies over Obama's, which the latter sounds to me like a battle cry for class warfare as well as the death knell for a large number of small businesses.

Bottom line: Obama wants to raise taxes to pay for a multitude of new programs. McCain does not and in fact wants to balance the budget (my first priority). By the way, I cannot see where any of Obama's giveaways and programs will benefit my family... especially in the context of the ever-increasing federal debt. Obama has NO plan to balance the budget and reduce the debt. All the taxes he wants to increase will be going for his new and expanded programs, which all analysts find will not be paid for by those increased taxes anyway. In other words, Obama's "economic" plan increases the budget deficit and the federal debt.

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thoughtful:

KipTin/Undecided

It is of no use having a discourse with you.

You defending the undefensible - Global Warming is not Man Made.

Climate Change is not Global Warming or preventing it, is it?

The Surge, 5 months ago Petraeus appeared before Congress and could not say the surge was working, and in the end it wasn't needed. Troop levels are noe below Pre-surge levels. Well what happened was very simple:

ALL THE IRAQIS ARE UNITED BEHIND ONE BANNER AND THAT IS ALL FOREIGNERS TO LEAVE IRAQ.

Al QAEDA were imported to fight us and were first of all welcomed by the Sunni Insurgents until the Sunnis discovered the real nature of these terrorists - hence the Sunni Awakening and Yes the Sunnis and The Iraqi Government needed our help in killing them and repelling them from Iraq.

The Shias have had a de facto cease fire for a year. The kurds are almost self governing in the North.

The Iraqis want the US out by the endof 2010 latest.

The Iraq war has cost millions of lifes and distracted the US from pursuing the command and leadership structure of Al Qaeda that is based in Tribal Territory between Afghan border with Pakistan from Baluchistan in the South to Nuristan in the North.

I know what I am talking about as I have spent considerable time in what is now the war zone.

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zotz:

KipTin- This is a lie and you know it!

"Almost all of Congress voted for the Iraq War (Dems and GOP)"

A majority of Democratic congressmen voted NO on the Iraq war resolution.

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thoughtful:

John and Publius:

This CNN poll is illegible, if its on the same basis as the last one then very slight movement to Obama. But who knows?

The Ras tracker poll tends to suggest that Palin may have neutralised Obama bounce through solidifying the Repub base.

But Obama appears to have strengthened his own Democratic base and no appreciable movement on the Indies one way or the other.

Some of us think that Gallup tracker might show a slight further movement to Obama today! Brave man me.

We need to look at battle ground states!

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KipTin:

Regarding climate change: I will be an academic elitist here-- I very recently completed an upper division postsecondary class in Global Environmental History that was based on scientific research papers. Global warming is a natural phenomenon, or else we would still be in one of the many Ice Ages.

And I doubt if Alaska has to worry so much about manmade global warming because they have plenty of CO2 absorbers up there. What they do have to worry about is being prepared for the impact of climate change.

And I will again remind you that John McCain is running for President and is the policy guy.

No way can Obama win the argument against McCain on climate change, because McCain was there among the first. (Only Al Gore and John Kerry have a longer record in the Senate for such.) And this Kyoto Accord did not help Kerry win the presidency did it? (And I did vote for Kerry and Gore). So now I am again supporting someone who actually has a real record on addressing climate change. Obama has ZERO. For Obama it is all about his plan, but I can find no record that he actually tried to do something.

Oh, wait. I found an Obama record:

--In May 1998, at the urging of the state's coal industry, the Illinois Legislature passed a bill condemning the Kyoto global warming treaty and forbidding state efforts to regulate greenhouse gases. Barack Obama voted "aye."--

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-07-17-obama-coal_N.htm

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thoughtful:

Politico has just released a news release reporting that Sarah Palin's daughter is pregnant and will be marrying the father.

How is this going to play?

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KipTin:

Quit calling me a "liar" without ANY basis in fact... I stated a fact when I said "Almost all of Congress voted for the Iraq War (Dems and GOP)"

FACT: 373 voted for and 156 voted against. Ergo almost all of Congress (>2/3) (71%/29%).
FACT: Dems voted for the War, and in the Senate it was a majority of Dems (29-22). 39% of House Dems voted for the Iraq War.

Iraq War Vote--
Senate:
Yea's 77 (29 Dems)
Nay's 23 (22 Dems, 1 GOP, 1 Independent)

House:
Yea's 296 (81 Dems, 215 GOP)
Nay's 133 (126 Dems, 6 GOP, 1 Independent)

And that is why I chose my screen name "KipTin" because I get really tired of people who are ignorant of the FACTS calling other people liars.

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thoughtful:

Kip Tin Undecided

The President presented a false case for going to war. I didn't say it was deliberate, but a false case.

The question is knowing what the real situation was in Iraq how would senators and Reps vote.

John McCain says he stil would have voted to authorise war. Its as simple as that.

War is the last resort, we weren't in danger, there were no weapons of mass destruction in any case. Nevertheless we let Al Qaeda off the hook in Afghanistan and wasted all these lives of good people. Forget about the 10's of billions of dollars. The war was and is insane. For the benefit of Big Oil, Middle Men and the Service Providers.

Let's just talk about polling?

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KipTin:

Hey... thoughful... get a clue or find a FACT. I am not defending the indefensible. I am stating FACTS. Yes, "accelerated" global warming is most likely human-caused (IPCC), but it is additive to a natural phenomenon that cycles over time.

Here is "Past Climate Change" from http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.html

It will give you a quick overview of what I already correctly stated.

P.S. Getting angry at me and calling me names does not change the FACTS. Your problem is that you have not investigated certain issues thoroughly enough to understand them.

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Mike:

KipTin is on the McCain payroll. You can be too (get paid for repeating talking points all over the internet). Go to johnmccain.com to find out how!

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zotz:

KipTin-
Since you like nitpicking so much, I didn't call you a liar. I said your statement-
"Almost all of Congress voted for the Iraq War (Dems and GOP)" was a lie.

If you TELL THE TRUTH people won't think that way about you. Didn't your mother teach you that?

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thoughtful:

KipTin Undecided

I never call any body "names".

There are no real movements in the tracker polls today 49-46 Ras: 49-43 Gallup and then this one which appears like a weekly poll where no one can get at the crosstabs.

We need to see what has happened in come to think of it all the battleground states. Ohio and Florida - classic- in particular, but all the must wins for McCain and all the can wins and Defend Kerry States for Obama.

You can't keep Sarah Palin out of the headlines!

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KipTin:

Yes, the McCain campaign just released the statement that the oldest Palin girl (17) is pregnant (like that has never happened before. Obama only need to look at his "beginnings."). She had decided to keep the baby AND marry the father. (And is not that now the "responsible" thing that everyone keeps preaching-- even Mr. Obama? The "father" thing, except for his girls he appears to be more for abortion.) I am curious what Obama will now say.

And I whole-heartedly agree with the following:
"The despicable rumors that have been spread by liberal blogs, some even with Barack Obama's name in them, is a real anchor around the Democratic ticket, pulling them down in the mud in a way that certainly juxtaposes themselves against their 'campaign of change,'" a senior aide said.

Should not Obamanation be ashamed of itself? YES! YES! YES!

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KipTin:

OK.. thoughtful... you did not call me a name. You only denigrated me by implication with phrases like "You defending the undefensible." When I was stating verifiable facts. Nuff said.

And zotz did in fact directly call me a liar as in "KipTin- This is a lie and you know it!" and then follows up with "If you TELL THE TRUTH..."

I reported zotz because he/she is way over the line.

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Publius:

Here's a great item. Palin's response to a question on an Eagle Forum questionnaire given to the candidates in the 2006 gubernatorial race in Alaska. SP is Sarah Palin.

11. Are you offended by the phrase “Under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance? Why or why not?
JB: No.
SP: Not on your life. If it was good enough for the founding fathers, its good enough for me and I’ll fight in defense of our Pledge of Allegiance.

How does one combat such ignorance? The Founding Fathers? (Pledge was written in the 20th century. "Under God" added in 1950's)? I teach high school history and am appalled.

Here's the rest of the questionnaire:

http://eagleforumalaska.blogspot.com/2006/07/2006-gubernatorial-candidate.html

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thoughtful:

KipTin/Undecided

I am sure every body shares in the Palin's family joy at this news.

This however seems to be some of the hubris of making injudicious decisions. Is McCain going to do the same with Supreme Court Judges?

What way will this go in the polls? Sympathy vote? Don't know how it is going to play?

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blueboy2000:

Does anyone really believe that Nader will get four percent of the vote in this election? Sorry, but this poll screams "outlier."

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Publius:

The pregnancy undercuts all of Palin's transparent values. Presumably, her daughter was raised in a Christian household with an abstinence-only education. If you need any more evidence that this is no guarantee of a child behaving correctly, here it is, yet the conservative view is that this is the way America ought to be run. The fact that they are exultant about her having the child makes their hypocrisy even more glaring.

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KipTin:

So Publius, what should the family do? Cast her out of the house, paint a big "A" on her chest, force her to abort the baby? You do not know much about family values do you?

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KipTin:

Maybe "thoughtful" did not read the McCain press release, because McCain stated he already knew about the pregnancy. And what does a 17-year old getting pregnant have to do with anyone's judgement except her and her partner's judgement anyway? Again I remind Obamanation how Obama's life began.

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thoughtful:

blueboy2000
an outlier by definition is outside the margin of error.

No one can saymuch about the CNN poll as they are created for News Entertainment program.

Nobody gets to see the model, the crosstabs, the weighting - nothing. This looks like a State of Nevada Poll!

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zotz:

I am offended and insulted that KipTin refers to Obama supporters as "Obamanation". This is a derogatory play on words meant to sound similar to "abomination". This language should not be tolerated at a site dedicated to serious discussion of political issues.

KipTin has been reported for his/her abusive insults.

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Tybo:

"I am offended and insulted that KipTin refers to Obama supporters as "Obamanation". "

as compared to what the Obama fans have called Clinton supporters.

wow, I feel your outrage...
how dare they insult Obama's minions.

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Tybo:

so where is Barack's bump in the polls?
These are terrible polls for him.

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Publius:

KipTin:

You miss my point. I'm not suggesting any of those things.

Palin and the conservative right have been preaching family values to us for 30 years. They have been touting abstinence and God and prayer as a means to reduce teen and unwanted pregnancy, and they want the whole country to adopt their "successful" methods. Now we have Palin exalting that her 17 year old will have the baby, without any mention of the fact that her 17 year old was having not only premarital sex, but unprotected premarital sex while under age (as if STD's don't infect right wingers). What ever happened to chastity pledges and rings? Was Palin's daughter unaware of these? I just don't want Palin preaching to me during the campaign about teen pregnancies. She can't stop them in her house and she won't stop them in the country.

As for my family values, I'll let my 11-year-old daughter speak for me. She read the article and said, "that's not supposed to happen, is it?"

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Robi:

I am not a pollster but to me I don't see the importance of the national polls. Gore won the popular vote but still lost. The real race is in the electoral college so can anyone tell me that, besides being used for TV shows, why are national polls important?

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Tom:

I wonder if the poll used party affiliation weights to determine its horserace number? This would supress any convention "bounce" because it would remove those who now identify themselves with the party that just held their convention. This would explain why the Rassmussen poll shows that the lead for Obama is +3 compared to +3 a week ago, while the Gallup daily tracker has gone from Obama -1 to Obama +6.

The fact that the McCain campaign chose to release the fact that Sarah Palin's daughter was pregent on the day when the media's attention was focused on Louisiana should say something.

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1ndependentv0ter:

The Democrats must be panicking now. They chose the wrong candidate and they know it. the polls, not just this one reflects that the DNC bounce is subsiding. McCain's maverick pick to choose Sarah Palin compliments his personality and is the most able to work with her in the White House. She was also chosen to solidify the social conservative base who have not been excited about McCain at all. McCain has succeeded and this poll reflects that. The RNC will create a bounce and the campaigning will widen the lead further. The story is unfolding, the Democrats lost 2008, because they chose the wrong candidate and it will go down in history.

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in2veep:

To anyone thinking this race is really close strop drinking your Mcsame kool-aid. Mcsame would not have made a desperate choice like that if it was! they are terrified of the obama ground game!

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