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POLL: CNN National Dem Primary


CNN/Opinion Research

National
Obama 52, Clinton 45

 

Comments
Come again?:

At this point we know that:

1) Obama will end the contest with the most pledged delegates,

2) Obama will likely end the contest with the popular vote tally,

3) Obama will end the contest with the most money and greatest fundraising potential,

4) Obama will end the contest with the most states,

5) Obama will end the contest with the best poll numbers against McCain, and

6) Obama will end the contest with the most primary state victories and caucus state victories.


So what's left for Team Clinton? She has to convince a majority of the super delegates to cast their vote for her, so how does she get those supers to ignore all of the above Obama advantages in order to cast their ballot for the candidate who is losing?

Apparently, it's a two-pronged strategy.

The first is what we've been seeing this week -- tear down a candidate who has inspired and given hope to millions by appealing to white resentment and turning him into the "black candidate". It's ugly and revolting, but the Clinton campaign is banking on it scaring people away from Obama. And by "people", I mean "super delegates".

Remember, Clinton can't win based on the math. The rules -- the "process" -- are her enemy. The only way she can win is by having the super delegates ignore all of Obama's clear advantages -- a coup by super delegate. And the way that coup is by tearing Obama down and discrediting the process that gave Obama those advantages.

But here's the rub -- the "process that gave Obama those advantages" includes latte drinkers, and black people, and young people, and red state Democrats, and small state Democrats, and blue states that voted for Obama.

So it's a sort of Catch-22 -- she needs the super delegates to abandon the winner for her loser campaign, but the way she's trying to win them over is by insulting their very states and constituencies.

Clinton is in a bad place. She is behind in every metric that matters, and has been relegated to trashing our likely nominee and entire Democratic Party constituencies and states in order to make the case that she's somehow "more electable" despite all evidence to the contrary. Unfortunately for her, the super delegates aren't all cloistered in New York or in DC.

They represent the United States of America. And outside of Clinton's Blue bastions, her insults aren't winning any new converts.

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Julio:

This poll is bs. CNN has been favoring Obama for long time. Do not trust them.

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Ferd:

Looks like all you Hilltards were WRONG...yet again!!!!

Down goes Clinton!!!!! Down goes Clinton!!!!! Down goes Clinton!!!!!

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David West:

McCain has come under fire since televangelist John Hagee endorsed him on Feb. 27, but until Friday his response had been tepid. The Arizona senator merely said he doesn't agree with everyone who endorses him. He said Friday he had been hearing from Catholics who find Hagee's comments offensive.

Hagee, leader of a San Antonio megachurch, has referred to the Roman Catholic Church as "the great whore" and called it a "false cult system" and "the apostate church" ? "apostate" means someone who has forsaken his religion.

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John from Spokane, WA:

Dear everyone, my name is John and I am a schizophrenic. I have been posting things about Obama I know to be untrue since I am a closeted racist. Please forgive my constant rants, lies and utter trash that I post. Sorry Mark, I just had to post this so people would know the truth. I just can't help myself sometimes. Just ignore or delete my posts. Thanks.

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Anonymous:

The Obamaniacs love Wright and his "The US created AIDS to kill black people" comment. That's all this poll shows. That and the stupidity of caring about which one of these two fools is going to lose to a REAL candidate, John McCain in the fall.

McCain/Romney 08

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christinep:

I noticed that the polling dates included 2 of the 3 days as Friday and Saturday. How does that compare to the daily tracking of Gallup? And, for the Opinion Research Poll, how did the actual Democrats split? Just curious.

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Dewey:

By our count, the Clinton campaign hasn?t publicly announced the support of a new superdelegate since just after February 5. Indeed, since Super Tuesday, Obama has gained 47 new superdelegates, while Clinton has lost seven (including Eliot Spitzer).

Does Clinton have a bigger problem on the superdelegate front than folks realize? Why do we think party leaders -- who saw the Democrats lose governorships, state legislatures, and the control of Congress during the Clinton years -- suddenly jump on board the Clinton campaign? Isn't this the reason the Clinton campaign has only been able to keep uncommitted supers from climbing board Obama's bandwagon but they haven't been able to woo a new super to their side in a month? ? Isn't this also an explanation for why the Clinton campaign has done so poorly in the caucuses? The caucuses are made up of the activists who follow this stuff closer and think about things like electability and who can help the party keep Congress, etc. If Clinton's not winning over caucus activists, why should we believe she'll win over a large enough chunk of superdelegates to overcome Obama's pledged delegate lead?

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Sean :

I was an Obama delegate at the Dubuque County Convention yesterday in Iowa. Given the fact that there were over 250 people in attendence for an event that usually gets under 50, it was pretty chaotic. As per usual, the day began with brief speechs from various local Democratic politicans. These were interrupted, however, so that a special guest could speak to us. The Clinton campaign had flown in Sean Astin to shill for Hill. He's most famous for playing Sam, Frodo's erstwhile friend, in the Lord of the Rings trilogy. He proceeded to tell us all about what a strong women and great leader Hillary was and then went into the now-discredited accounts of her foreign policy accomplishments in Northern Ireland etc. He also returned to the idea of the joint Hillary-Obama dream ticket. But the culmination of his speech was when he talked about how the wonderful thing about the Iowa caucus system was that the county convention was essentially another caucus and that not only the undecided delegates (those pledged to candidates who have withdrawn) but even the pledged delegates could switch their allegiance.

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ED:

Interesting comments

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Andrew S. in California:

More evidence that this Rev Wright BS is not REALLY effecting anyone's vote. Although I must say it has a rather high sampling error.

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Chris:

Christine, to answer your earlier question:


Take your pick :

Nancy Pelosi

Claire McCaskill

Kathryn Sabelius

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Caroline:

At this point we know Obama is a race baiter, liar and anti-American.

Obama knew the crook Rezko for 17 years and that his preacher hated whites and America.

And Obama will never be president. Period.

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Chris:

Pelosi also recently hinted that the supers would not over-rule the pledged delegate leader.

I would love to see her as a VP!!!

Hillary is not a strong woman in my opinion. Does a strong woman cry when things get tough? Does a strong woman have the hubby do her dirty work? Does a strong woman stay with a chronic adulterer? No, no, and NO!


Clinton is too divisive - the right wingers would mount an offensive just to take her down. In fact, they are voting for her in the primaries to do just that. Check it out!

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/03/17/many_voting_for_clinton_to_boost_gop/

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Bob Evans:

HEY CAROLINE!!

Google : Norman Hsu or Peter Paul

or Whitewater

or Rose Law firm

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Dee Dee:

CAROLINE,


Hillary will NEVER be President.


LIVE WITH IT!!!


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Adam Il:

This poll is way off. Did CNN tie up with ARG ?

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Andrew_in_California:

THIS JUST IN:

Florida gives up on re-vote! It means either a 50-50 split of Florida delegates or no counting what-so-ever. Bad news for Hillary.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Florida_gives_up_on_revote.html

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the_truth:

Obama is not electable anymore, deal with it, move on, or suffer in November. His support among Whites have been dropping like hot potato. Don't trust CNN, they are pro Obama, such as Fox is pro McCain. Would you support the KKK or Black panther if they promise to end the war? Obma pastor and mentor of 230 years is a racist. If you lay with dogs you will catch flee. My friends say alot about my character. Does anyone on this blog have a racist mentor? think with your heads. obama was electable last week, not today and not ever. He is lucky iof he will win bnack his senate seat. Obama is done, if one can't see that then they are blind or stupid.

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Andrew_in_California:

Guess 52% of Americans are blind and stupid. The truth hurts I guess. :P

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kingsbridge77:

What's the use of national polls? Most states already voted. Why not just poll individual states that are yet to vote?

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John London:

National polls show the whole country supports Obama more than Clinton,and its nice to see which states,who already have voted, are starting to swing Obama's way .... nice one Barack , your speache tommorrow will be excellent I'm sure, as where you're tv appearances the last couple of days.Seems like the mud gets slung, dries ,and falls off,leaving you shinier than ever... bring it on.!!

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the_truth:

I had a great dream lastnight. I dreamed that I saw Kennedy, Kerry, Pelosi, and Bradley running to the hills, pulling their hair out, yelling "what did we do, oh what did we do". I then saw Hillary in the background smilling, while singing "time is on my side, yes it is, time is on my side, yes it is".

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Andrew_in_California:

Don't worry we all have bad dreams from time to time.

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kingsbridge77:

John London said,

Seems like the mud gets slung, dries ,and falls off,leaving you shinier than ever... bring it on.!!

But who said Obama is better now than he was before the Wright scandal? He now trails McCain for the first time in weeks, after having a comfortable lead at one point. Just because he leads Hillary it doesn't mean he hasn't been hurt. He may have not been hurt among Democrats, but his goal is to be president, and it's not looking good at all.

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People like myself want to win against McCain in November. I don't think Obama will live through the William Ayers, the Rezko, the Rachid Khalili, the Wright, the Michelle comments about our country... The Republicans will have Obama for breakfast. All over the country, voters are asking for their votes back if they already voted, or voting for Hillary Clinton in the upcoming primaries.
Really, do we want Obama? Do we want a President who has questionable (at least!), relationships with terrorist factions, endorsed by Fharrakan? Do we want, in The White House, someone who is involved in shady deals? Someone who hates his country, who "stongly denounces" Rev. Wright's comments, while Mr Wright has been obama's pastor FOR TWENTY YEARS?
On the other hand, you have another four years of Bush.
I don't think Senator Clinton is the best choice out of the three, I know she is the best choice for America. Senator Clinton will work her behind off for us. She has the knowledge, the experience and the right policies.

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John London:

Obamas first goal is to get rid of the annoyance of Hillary, then he can focus on baeting McCain.He is not doing too badly at the moment considering attacks from hillary,McCain,and the Rezko\wright scandals.Once these storms have passed and hillary is burried , I'm sure Obama will easily beat McCain.Hillary is the biggest obstacle at the moment.Move out the way please

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