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POLL: CNN National, Quinnipiac NJ/NY, ARG CA, Zogby


CNN

National
Obama 49, Clinton 46... McCain 44, Romney 29

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Quinnipiac

New Jersey
Clinton 48, Obama 43... McCain 52, Romney 30

New York
Clinton 53, Obama 39... McCain 54, Romney 22

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American Research Group

California
Clinton 47, Obama 39... Romney 33, McCain 32

Zogby Daily Tracking
NJ, NY, GA, MO, CA

 

Comments
Brian:

if ARG has Clinton up by 8 and Mccain down by one in California you know Obama is going to win that state. LOL . Leave it to ARG to give Clinton a 8 point lead on the eve of the election. And Mccain is going to win California by about 8 points.

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Adam:

Brian -- I think you're spot on. ARG consistently overestimates Clinton's support. Juts look at the polls from ARG in IA, SC, etc.

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Mike:

You both are wrong. Don't underestimate HRC's spanish support in CA. The Hispanics run LA. Also, the polls are all over the place and remember what happened in NH. I would think you Obama supporters would learn your lesson.

The Republicans are relishing with the fact that Obama may win the nomination, lol, and you all too dumb to realize you've been played by the media that's shoving him down your throats.

Proud member of RNC.

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Phil:

Obama has generally done better when the polls have been all over the place (SC, IA) than when they have not (NH), so I'm taking the fact that he's retaining underdog status going into voting as a good sign - I think his supporters are more likely to be fired up when he's not favored.

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Adam:

Proud member of RNC: neither of us are discounting the hispanic vote. We're commenting on the poor performance of ARG (and overestimate of HRC's %) across the board.

Further, SC polls were a worse predictor for Obama than the NH polls for HRC.

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ca-ind:

It is so laughable that u Obama idiots try to push up the polls that are favorable to u and push down the ones unfavorable. U morons All polls have errors typically of > 4 %.
Obama's support is just like jn NH, and he is going to lose on Fe5 most of the states.

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Jack Barnes:

SC victory for Obama wasn't real nor representative of the whole nation. He only won b/c he was black on 24% of whites. You obamabots are so screwed up, u can't accept reality.

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Keith Pickering:

It's funny to see so many Republicans quaking in their boots at the thought of having to run against Obama rather than their favorite demon, HRC. Can't accept reality? With Obama up by 3 nationally in the latest CNN poll, Obama up by 9 nationally in the latest Cook poll?

The real question is, can the GOP run a campaign based on anything other than their usual slime? Because that's gonna look pretty sad and stale compared to Obama's inspirational message. McCain has been a target of the Bush slime machine himself, so as long as the GOP machine hacks stay out of the way, there's a chance we might have a real election this time around instead of a mudwrestling contest.

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nab:

U obama the muslim supporter, he is a moron. Any christian will have Obama as a name.. sounds like the terrorist osama.

He is hiding his religion and wrong doing by giving false hope of change.

I am sick of this Obama.If he gets nominee, i will prefer to vote to Republican.

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Henry:

ca-ind,

ARG polls have been widely discredited as having a Clinton bias.

ARG's latest Illinois poll from a couple days ago showed Clinton behind by only 11.

ARG showed, on the day of the SC Primary, Clinton in a statistical tie with Obama.

...these are just a couple of the latest. ARG has been consistently far out of line with the general consensus of all the other polls, with a bias towards Clinton.

I'm not saying they're intentionally making it this way. That could be the case, or it could be a result of bad methodology in how they're taking polls, understating first time voter support which tends toward Obama, etc etc..

But we can't argue with the facts, which are that ARG's numbers have consistently been shown to be way off, generally in Clinton's favor.

That being the case, as an Obama supporter, my eyes light up when I see ARG reporting Clinton leading by only 8 in California (my state). This is as usual, out of line with all the other latest polls showing Clinton leading by only a couple points or 0.

If ARG is reporting Clinton up 8 in CA, that will, if history is any judge, suggest we're actually going to see something around 50/50. Obama might even end up with a majority in CA. I'm not counting on that, but it's a real possibility.

My own numbers show a virtual tie in delegates awarded after tomorrow. I currently have CA at 49 Obama 51 Clinton.

We shall soon see.

Peace
Henry

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Dan:

You guys need to replace yesterday's Zogby numbers with today's in the relevant states.

Thanks for all your hard work!

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