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POLL: CNN South Carolina Primary


A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation statewide survey of 1,052 adults in South Carolina (conducted 7/16 through 7/18) finds:

  • Among 380 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama 39% to 25% in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails with 15%, former V.P. Al Gore with 10%. Without Gore, Clinton leads Obama 43% to 27%.
  • 46% of Democrats say they "definitely suport" their candidate; another 46% say they may change their mind.
  • Among 432 likely Republican primary voters, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads Sen. John McCain (28% to 20%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. Fred Thompson trails with 17%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich with 6%.
  • 32% of Republicans say they "definitely support" their candidate; 57% say they may change their mind.

View all South Carolina Primary poll data at Pollster.com:

Democrats Republicans

 

Comments
andrew:

So . . . In your poll you ask if they will vote for Newt Gingrich and Fred Thomson - who haven't entered the race, but you don't ask about Ron Paul?

Ron Paul has more cash on had than Jonh McCain. He received more donations from private citizens in the military than any other candidate. Almost all of that support comes from individual small donations from those who believe in his message (as opposed to special interest groups).

By not covering the candidate who has more Technorati and Google Searches than any other candidate, has won every online poll, and has more youtube subscribers than any other candidate, you are pigeonholing yourself into irrelevance.

Why are people so excited about this guy? Check out his interview at Google on youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCM_wQy4YVg

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andrew:

So . . . In your poll you ask if they will vote for Newt Gingrich and Fred Thomson - who haven't entered the race, but you don't ask about Ron Paul?

Ron Paul has more cash on had than Jonh McCain. He received more donations from private citizens in the military than any other candidate. Almost all of that support comes from individual small donations from those who believe in his message (as opposed to special interest groups).

By not covering the candidate who has more Technorati and Google Searches than any other candidate, has won every online poll, and has more youtube subscribers than any other candidate, you are pigeonholing yourself into irrelevance.

Why are people so excited about this guy? Check out his interview at Google on youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCM_wQy4YVg

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Chantal:

andrew, ron paul gets 2%. click the link.

and he got 1% on the most recent online poll:
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=789

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Chris S.:

On the GOP side, the polls in SC are just a confusing mess. I'd be hard pressed to think of a comparable situation, where the levels of support for the different candidates oscillated so much from one poll to the next.

Apparently, for example, McCain's support in SC keeps oscillating between the single digits and 20%+. Either that, or about half the polls are terrible (though it's unclear which ones). I mean, just look at that scatterplot figure with the GOP polls in SC. There are quite a few points (especially for McCain and Thompson) that are way off the trendlines. Any idea why the polls in SC might be so erratic?

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Joshua:

andrew: This isn't "Eric's poll" anyway. He is just writing about it for this blog.

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Paul:

The last SC Poll I have data on was July ARG, before that was June M-D. Clinton - Obama numbers are reversed between July CNN and June M-D. July CNN is close to July ARG. Edwards continues to lag behind in 3rd in all these polls. For Republicans, these last three polls overall show Giuliani, McCain, Thompson running 1st-2nd-3rd, so at least in SC, McCain is ahead of Thompson (albeit by a narrow margin).

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Anonymous:

Republicans in Maine have moven their primary to take place after South Carolina and Florida, before February 5th.

The most recent poll is from ages ago. Giuliani gets 24%, Thompson unincluded, Romney 12%, McCain 21%, and Gingrich at 13%.

These numbers are too old to use. I can't wait for a Maine poll and wonder why the media won't inform us about Maine's move.

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Anonymous:

On the GOP side, Romney's showing in low single digits shows he has no chance outside New Hampshire and Iowa. The south won't vote for a mormon and you can't get nominated without winning southern states

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