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POLL: CNN/ORC Texas Primary


CNN/Opinion Research Corporation
(release)

Texas
Clinton 50, Obama 48... McCain 55, Huckabee 32, Paul 11

 

Comments
Ruben:

I have to see the details on this poll. But I think it is off. I think this poll in California had Clinton behind also. We'll have to see.

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Another Mike:

Where can I find the poll details?

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tony:

cnn released a story on its webpage, but no demographics. it does let us know that dems support both candidates. joy.

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JGK:

Here on pollster.com, it looks like the last CNN poll in CA had Clinton up 49 to 32. Are you thinking of another state Ruben?

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Anonymous:

What I really would like to know about the CA polls: Did they offer some sort of weighting to offset the early voting? It was widely reported that as much as 50% of the state had voted in the month before Feb. 5, where Clinton was killing in the polls.

I was always under the assumption that Obama, cutting the lead to single digits, was a very good showing for such a strong Clinton state. Is that incorrect?

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Bree:

Correct, I believe.

This spells real bad news for Hillary. Just a remarkable surge by Obama. I too would like to see the specifics of this poll. Texas's caucus/primary system is real bad news for Clinton. This is a state she must win substantially on the 4th. If that doesn't happen, say good-night.

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Anonymous:

Given the weird delegate rules in Texas, if Obama comes this close, it basically rules out any chance she has of closing the pledged delegate gap: so yes, that would be a great showing for him.

If Obama wins Texas, Clinton will be under pressure from the party to concede. If she wins by a narrow margin, and holds on in Ohio, the race will go on, but with Clinton having even less of a chance of winning the pledged delegate race.

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If you take this poll along, Clinton +2, along with the last Rasmussen, Clinton +16, it's hard to say what makes sense.

On the pollster report card, you can see that ORC has average off about 9 and Rasmussen about 7.6, so the logical midpoint between them is ... about Clinton +10, where we were a week ago.

Oh, the joy of numbers!

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Joe Conason:

It is bad news for Clinton regardless of the polling methodology and weighting used in the survey. You should be skeptical of a poll with 2% undecided and one where you cannot peer into the crosstabs. Nevertheless, the media will run with this poll while downplaying the Rassmussen poll, since they have a horse in the race.

Given the demographics of Texas, I am not sure why anyone thinks Hillary would ever win "big" there. At best, I saw it as +6 for her. The media wave is now killing her and perhaps this poll reflects it, or maybe the Rasmussen one more accruately captures Texas. Would love to see SUSA. They seem to have the pulse.

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RS:

Joe Conason is right - beware of polls where you can't see the cross-tabs.
But - why is Senator Clinton expected to win big in Texas? Because (a) she has to! (b) Hispanics are 1/3 of the Texas population. (b) does not necessarily translate to Democrats, but if California is any indicator, the Latino turn-out was ~30% of the Democratic vote (almost twice that in previous polls), and went 3-1 for Senator Clinton.
Of course, in Arizona where Governor Napolitano backed Senator Obama, Latinos went ~60-40 for Clinton...

CNN will run with the poll because - d-uh! Others... we'll see.

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roy:

Mr. 'Conason,'

What about the demographics are you referring to? They seem pretty favorable to Clinton in that she did extremely well in OK and quite well in NM for a caucus stats, did very well among Latinos in CA, and TX has a smaller African-American population that the Southern states where Obama has crushed Clinton.

Not that I ever predicted she'd win big, it just seems like friendlier ground than most places.

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Joe Conanson:

It is definitely friendlier ground than most places for Senator Clinton. That said, comparisons to OK or CA are misleading. OK does not have nearly as many hispanics as Texas. In CA, an underreported fact was that Asian-Americans were a key factor in Clinton's victory. While only 1/12th of the primary voters, they broke for Hillary 3-1, a larger margin than hispanics broke for her. I do not think Texas has 8% Asian Americans, and Texas will have about 20% of the Democratic electorate being African-American. If you have 20% of the state voting against you 9-1, that's not exceptionally friendly territory for Clinton. If the Hispanic vote constitutes 35% of the primary (the state's hispanic % is 35%) and the African-American is 20%, I think it will be extremely close.

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Steve:

Funny how Clinton supporters think CNN is biased towards Obama. A lot of Obama supporters call CNN the "Clinton News Network".

I think people only see what they want to see through their paranoia glasses.

And Roy, NM was not really a caucus. They can call it whatever they want, but the votes were cast like a primary. I know, I live there.

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Does anyone know when pollster.com are going to start anaylsing the polls for November?

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roy:

Interesting about Asian-Americans. I wonder _why_ they supported Clinton so heavily, and I wonder if this phenomenon will play a role in HI, which would be a small but embarrassing loss for Obama.

My guess is that the home-state advantage will carry the day, plus the fact that among the mosaic of racial antagonisms in HI, nobody is more dislikes than us haoles.

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roy:

OK, Steve, though the same could be said of MN. All you had to do to vote was show up and sign in. Well, in theory--in practice it involved navigating through a chaotic mob for 40 minutes first.

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RS:

@Steve:
Not sure what made you go off on the Clinton News Network. If it was my comment that "CNN will run with this poll" - well, that's because it's a CNN-sponsored poll!
Feel free to visit my blog by clicking on my name to see who I support, though.

@Joe Conanson:
The Clinton-Hispanics in Texas will probably negate any African-American support for Senator Obama. Then it comes to the White vote - and Senator Clinton does have an edge among white women, who are a majority of Democratic voters, no?

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jana:

to roj.
more asian americans in Washington voted for Obamathen then for Hillary. His sister is half-asian and her husbend is Chinese-Canadian.
the people of Hawai will vote for their native son. will otherwise "loose face"

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Joe Conason:

"The Clinton-Hispanics in Texas will probably negate any African-American support for Senator Obama. Then it comes to the White vote - and Senator Clinton does have an edge among white women, who are a majority of Democratic voters, no?"

I think you are correct. If Clinton wins the state, it will be due to the demographic no one seems to talk about in Texas anymore, the white Democrats (maybe because there are just 5 left? haha). I am not sold on her performance among white Democrats in the state. She would need a 10+ swing among non-hispanic or black voters to offset his 10-1 support among blacks. A 60-65% among hispanics doesn't accomplish that. She has been performing poorly among the so-called latte liberals, which is all of the white Austin demographic.

Best case for Clinton in Texas is +6 in my opinion. I think it is the state they have to fear the most. If she doesn't win or barely does in Ohio, I think that is more telling because that state is on a "tee" for her. A lack of a good performance there says she's cooked.

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Jeff Morgan:

@ Joe Conanson

I can't find a link this second, but I've seen Hispanic turnout in recent elections characterized as low relative to their proportion of the population.

Like some other states, it's more helpful to consider Texas a collection of smaller states. Delegates are allotted based on districts' "blue-ness" in essence, and most of the state is red.
http://img.coxnewsweb.com/C/03/07/55/image_6655073.jpg

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jay:

You obama bots, are you kidding me.

Even Rasmussen has her up 16 pts and CNN says only 2. you have got to be kidding me.

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Joe Conason:

"it's more helpful to consider Texas a collection of smaller states."

All the more true due to gerrymandering by the GOP controlled legislature in Texas.

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John - Spokane, WA:

Hillary has shown to be in front of Obama by about 8 to 10 percent in most recent polls, except for CNN's most recent two point lead for Hillary in Texas (And oh by the way there could be a five point margin of error). Hussein Obama also has a dog fight on his hands in Wisconsin which he had all but chalked up as a winner just a few days ago. The "Borrowed Language" from his buddy Deval is not a small topic - it calls into question his very Character, and yes substance ! Obama is alot of talk and I see no written plans on HOW he is going to overcome the problems we confront today. Im sorry, just standing up on a stump and saying, Hope & Change and promise of tomorrow is NOT GOING TO CUT IT !!

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louise:

? DO THE POLES INCLUDE THOSE REPUBULICANS WHO CROSS OVER TO VOTE DEMOCRATIC TO GO AGAINST HILLARY. I hear in Tx. you can do that. I know how the republicans hate Hillary so much they would give up their vote for their republican candidate to do that. Is this all true? Would be interesting to know.

The republicans need to truly understand the old saying:
"Be careful you might get what you wish for. In that case, OBAMA TO BEAT OUT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE IN NOVEMBER. :)

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Jonathan :

John from Spokaine. Hussain Obama? This is a serious site for discussing polling - it is neither Free Republic or Mydd, where your over the top comments belong.

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Anonymous:

Hispanics in texas are not like Hispanics in california...any warly voting hasn't started yet in texas...he may have a chance

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teach:

Possibly, the reason for the TX poll is that right-wing radio people are telling Republicans, who can vote in the Dem primaries, to vote for Obama because they want to destroy Hillary. Several friends of mine from TX have heard them.

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Mike in TX:

Why wouldn't Repubs be voting for Hillary in the Dem primary, and thereby gain an easier opponent in the general?

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Craig:

The new SurveyUSA Texas poll is up:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a727cce1-0546-4909-95cf-02f3bc9ab73c

It has Clinton ahead 50-45, with some huge demographic gaps. I think the biggest question is how big the hispanic turnout will be (and if Obama can close the gap by campaigning there). I also think he'll end up with a bigger AA lead (there seems to be a reverse Wilder effect in some of the polls). I also wouldn't be surprised to see Obama end up winning the caucasian vote.

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Mike:

Just for everyone's FYI, they don't have the SurveyUSA texas poll up, but it is 50-45 Clinton. Looks similar to this CNN one and SurveyUSA has been ON THE MONEY so far this primary season...

Maybe everyone should rethink their comments such as "Well Rasmussen has Clinton +16". I'll take SUSA over Rasmussen anyday.

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rowjimmy:

This will be posted on this site soon, but it just posted on survey usa:

Clinton 50-45 in Texas, cross tabs below

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a727cce1-0546-4909-95cf-02f3bc9ab73c

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rowjimmy:

I am in awe of the polarization of the Texas electorate in terms of race, gender, income, and age shown in the Survey USA poll.

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Kim in TX:

Hill & Bill already had 8 years to FIX health care and they FAILED!
How many more years does Hillary need to accomplish nothing???
Wake up America and stop the delusional love fest for Hillary!!!


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Here's my commentary on the new SUSA Texas poll (C+5). It validates CNN, IA, and Hamilton, while placing ARG and Rasmussen as outliers.

Also, I don't know how many times I have to say this before people listen. ASIANS DO NOT VOTE AS A BLOCK. There are huge differences between Filipinos, Japanese, Chinese, Koreans, Vietnamese, Indians, etc. They vote in different patterns. As an aggregate, they voted for Clinton in California, but that is likely more due to WHICH Asian communities are most numerous there. Which would also explain why Clinton lost northern California and Washington, both of which have higher proportion of Japanese-Americans. Hawaii will vote like Washington, racially speaking. The only caveat for Clinton is the impact of the unions that have endorsed her there.

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roy:

xstryker,
I hope your shouting is not in responseto my inquiring why Asians in CA had voted for Clinton. "I wonder why" is a confession of a lack of info, not an assertion.

Anyway, thanks for providing some, though I personally would not know whether to expect Japanese-Americans in HI to follow the same pattern as Japanese-Americans in WA. They have played a substantially different role in the political history of the two states.

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Boot Camp Bill:

"ASIANS DO NOT VOTE AS A BLOCK."

No, only blacks seem to in this election.

Reverse racism, anyone?

If a white candidate were getting 90% of the white vote against a black candidate, the Al Sharptons of the world would be screaming non-stop. When the black candidate gets 90% of the black vote against a white candidate, it's fine.

Evidently, all over races can think for themselves, but blacks have always voted as a block for Democrats and now for the black candidate. Good for them

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Sean:

Boot Camp Bill, that is a ridiculous and ignorant comment. I would bet big that had the Obama camp gone after Hillary's gender in the manner Bill and Co. went after Obama's race, women would be backing Hillary in a 90% block and she'd already be the nominee. Obama didn't come into the race with that kind of AA support. Team Clinton handed it to him.

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Boot Camp Bill :

Sean-That sounds like a classic case of "white man's guilt" or having your head shoved so far into liberal dogma that you actually find the Sharptons and Jesse Jacksons of the world inspiring and credible.

Face it Sean, blacks are racists. No other group votes like a block for one party or black candidates like they do.

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nubiq8:

Oh stop this racial African American, Latino, Asian or other race votes. Lets look at the facts, Clinton was to form a health policy back fifteen years ago and it never happen. Now, you want me to believe she'll achieve this promise again. Look, I would love to see the first female president but Hillary Clinton can't get my vote because she sets women of professional minds back thirty years. The behavior of Bill Clinton while in the White House of course interfered with what their real mission was, therefore mission wasn't possible and as a team again no way. Its going to be hard to lock that dog up on the step with nothing to do. I want to try somehthing new, young, fresh and clean and this adds up to Barack and Michelle Obama not the old, dirty, nasty and smelly Bill and Hillary Clinton. This is just a policital progressive and professional opinion and no race attached.

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nubiq8:

Oh stop this racial African American, Latino, Asian or other race votes. Lets look at the facts, Clinton was to form a health policy back fifteen years ago and it never happen. Now, you want me to believe she'll achieve this promise again. Look, I would love to see the first female president but Hillary Clinton can't get my vote because she sets women of professional minds back thirty years. The behavior of Bill Clinton while in the White House of course interfered with what their real mission was, therefore mission wasn't possible and as a team again no way. Its going to be hard to lock that dog up on the step with nothing to do. I want to try somehthing new, young, fresh and clean and this adds up to Barack and Michelle Obama not the old, dirty, nasty and smelly Bill and Hillary Clinton. This is just a policital progressive and professional opinion and no race attached.

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nubiq8:

Oh by the way I'm republican, Black, Latina/Indian and voting for Obama because the GOP really screw this country up and I can't deal with the thought of the Clintons again, now off with the opinions and deal with the facts.

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Steve:

@RS

Sorry, I misinterpreted what you said. Lately I've seen so many Clinton supporters accusing CNN of be heavily biased in favor of Obama.

As for blacks voting for Obama, can you blame them? I don't, not when Obama is the first really viable black candidate. And Bill's comments after SC didn't help either...

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Trav:

Good comments. One thing you have to understand though. After tonight, Obama will win WI and HI. And even if it's close, that will just add to the Obama tsunami, and even though the political junkies expect it, the media will add even more fuel to the fire. If the Texas and Ohio races end up even close, this is devestating news for Hillary, and she may be reduced to begging for superdelegates to vote against the delegate count, or to somehow sneak the MI and FL delegates in. We'll see if she is reduced to that sort of outright political skulduggery. But I don't think the DNC would let her get away with that. And I'm not conviced the Clintons would go that far, as bad as they want the White House back.

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Bob Evans:

I agree Trav, good post. They already have resorted to petty, ignorant attacks on Obama. Billary will do anything - and I mean ANYTHING - to win the nomination.

They are the slime of the earth, and I have now put them in the same class as Bush and his cronies.

BOOT CAMP BILL - don't you have a KKK meeting to get to, you piece of garbage?

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Sasha:

CNN is obviously biased in their poll here. Rasmussen which is one of the most credible polster out there shows a 16 point gap and other polls show similiar trends; then WHAM! CNN comes out with this 5 point gap. I call it bunk and I call it CNN's pro Obama stance at work here. Guess they'll just have to be embarassed when election day comes.

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Tom:

Clinton is taking this battle to the convention, she isnt going to win Texas hugely, and may even loose it by a couple pts, but Obama isnt going to get the magical number or even come close(unless ALL Super Delegates pledge to him). It will come down to a second or third or fourth vote at the convention when the delegates state delegates that are pledged to one or the other are released and can do what they want to after the first vote. Count on most of Obama's delegates from NY and AK to move to Clinton, and Clinton's from IL to move to Obama.

Face the facts, no mater what happens in Texas, this thing is going to the convention and when that has happened in the past(3 times) the candidate that won the convention lost in the general. I expect McCain to have a massive war chest by then and the Dem's war chest to be about empty.

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tom:

Most of the establishment in the DNC is for Billary, most of them wouldnt have there positions if not or the Bill's presidentency so it is time to pay up....

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The General:

"I expect McCain to have a massive war chest by then and the Dem's war chest to be about empty."

I sure hope so.

We cannot afford a Democratic in office. We need someone who takes national security and terrorism seriously. That takes someone like John McCain.

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LCHill:

All you Obama supporters, you better be careful what you wish for. Obama says he'll be right on day one, but he and his wife are quick to let you know that "he's not perfect, that he's going to make mistakes". He tells you that change is going to be hard, it's not going to be easy. This sounds like code words for , don't expect much to get done and all those dreams and promises you hope for might not happen. But it's OK to HOPE that they become reality. And don't worry about security, he'll have all the help he'll need to advise him. That's what they told us about George W. Bush, and look where that got us. And what about grandma in Kenya, he'll probably take on that first instead of getting the troops out first. Hillary may have gotten it wrong on the vote to authorize, but we're there now and she wants to get the troops out quick. I believe she knows how to do that. And don't think that she hasn't learn what not to do when it comes to the health care issues. Obama uses scare tactics saying she will garnish wages to pay for health ins. coverage. But he says if you get sick and you're not cover you will have to pay back premiums. What if thats 5 or 10 years worth? Wouldn't have been better that you were being covered by it being deducted for your pay. Isn't thats how it done most ot the time anyway? She has been trying for this for years. Now I believe she has perfected it. She also knows exactly what to do on job creation and the economy. There will be no on the job training.
Anyway, listen up ya'll. In the debates coming up, listen to her objectively and put your hate aside. You'll see she makes a lot of sense and she is surely the best one for this job.
HopingforHillary

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Jeff D:

What matters on a positive note is Barack regardless is Gaining a lot of ground QUICKLY on Clinton! That is the key, and right now Obama is the only sure candidate who can beat MCCain and gain republican converts and independents. Hillary is too polarizing which is why people are scared she won't be able to beat McCain when it sall set and done. Hillary wont be able to gain as many independents and republican converts because of her association with Bill Clinton. Yes Bill was great in his time, and I loved bill clinton but you're not going to get republicans running to convert over to the Clinton Camp. Obama is the best candidate for real change and uniting the country. Not to mention he was against this farce of a war from the start!!!

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dc210:

For Roy, who was curious as to why Asian Americans in CA voted for Senator Clinton in the numbers that they did-

It largely had to do with the 80/20 PAC organization. The PAC sent out questions to all the candidates early in the campaign asking them to comment on the "glass ceiling," and to commit to increasing the number of Asian Americans in judicial positions. Clinton, Edwards, and several other democratic candidates worked with the organization to reword the document to reflect their commitment on these issues. Senator Obama balked at anything that remotely seemed like quotas, but did not work with the organization to come up with new language until very late in the campaign.

Just because an individual may be part of a minority group does not necessarily mean that s/he will make those issues a priority. Senator Obama chose not to go to New Orleans for the Black Caucus. Those voters helped him get the slim lead that he has. Now that he no longer needs them, he chooses not to attend. Yes, he needed to campaign, but so did Hillary. She felt it was important even though there is not much gain for her politically in LA at this point.

I believe the most recent polls show that McCain in the general election will beat both the democratic candidates. However, personally, I believe that Hillary has the stronger chance, because the Republicans are going to go after Obama for his all-black church, his perceived lack of patriotism, and whatever else they dig up. At least with Hillary, her life's been investigated.

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dc210:

For Roy, who was curious as to why Asian Americans in CA voted for Senator Clinton in the numbers that they did-

It largely had to do with the 80/20 PAC organization. The PAC sent out questions to all the candidates early in the campaign asking them to comment on the "glass ceiling," and to commit to increasing the number of Asian Americans in judicial positions. Clinton, Edwards, and several other democratic candidates worked with the organization to reword the document to reflect their commitment on these issues. Senator Obama balked at anything that remotely seemed like quotas, but did not work with the organization to come up with new language until very late in the campaign.

Just because an individual may be part of a minority group does not necessarily mean that s/he will make those issues a priority. Senator Obama chose not to go to New Orleans for the Black Caucus. Those voters helped him get the slim lead that he has. Now that he no longer needs them, he chooses not to attend. Yes, he needed to campaign, but so did Hillary. She felt it was important even though there is not much gain for her politically in LA at this point.

I believe the most recent polls show that McCain in the general election will beat both the democratic candidates. However, personally, I believe that Hillary has the stronger chance, because the Republicans are going to go after Obama for his all-black church, his perceived lack of patriotism, and whatever else they dig up. At least with Hillary, her life's been investigated.

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michael pittman:

BARACK OBAMA IS THE ONLY HOPE FOR OUR COUNTRY AT WAR.HE HAS THE LEADERSHIP AND JUDGEMENT TO CONFRONT OUR PROBLEMS THAT WE ARE FACING IN THE WORLD.PEOPLE SEE HIS NAME AND JUDGE HIM,PEOPLE LOOK AT HIS SKIN COLOR AND JUDGE HIM,AND PEOPLE SAY THAT HE HAS NO EXPERIENCE AND JUDGE HIM OFF OF THAT.AND HE HAS TIME AND TIME AGAIN CONFRONTED IT HEAD ON AND CONTINUED HIS MESSAGE HERE IN AMERICA AND AROUND THE WORLD.MY PEOPLE GIVE HIM A CHANCE,AND ALSO GIVE AMERICA A CHANCE TO ELECT BARACK OBAMA AS PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THIS IS OUR GENERATION....

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michael pittman:

BARACK OBAMA IS THE ONLY HOPE FOR OUR COUNTRY AT WAR.HE HAS THE LEADERSHIP AND JUDGEMENT TO CONFRONT OUR PROBLEMS THAT WE ARE FACING IN THE WORLD.PEOPLE SEE HIS NAME AND JUDGE HIM,PEOPLE LOOK AT HIS SKIN COLOR AND JUDGE HIM,AND PEOPLE SAY THAT HE HAS NO EXPERIENCE AND JUDGE HIM OFF OF THAT.AND HE HAS TIME AND TIME AGAIN CONFRONTED IT HEAD ON AND CONTINUED HIS MESSAGE HERE IN AMERICA AND AROUND THE WORLD.MY PEOPLE GIVE HIM A CHANCE,AND ALSO GIVE AMERICA A CHANCE TO ELECT BARACK OBAMA AS PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THIS IS OUR GENERATION....

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I am voting Obama...There should never be a woman in the Presidential position. We are at war with Countries that value their goats more than they value a woman. I think it would appear to other Countries as a weak choice. If she gets elected, I think we will be in deeper trouble than we are now. She is fake, loaning herself money for her campaign...crying over a simple question? please give me a break. She puts on the face of what you want to see not what she stands for. Obama all the way! Clinton? NO WAY!

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