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POLL: CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Dem Primary


Additional results from the recent CNN/WMUR/UNH statewide survey (CNN story, WMUR story, results, UNH results) of 793 likely primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted (11/14 through 11/18) finds:

  • Among 389 Democrats and those who lean Democratic, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (36% to 22%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 13%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 12%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
  • 24% have "definitely decided" who they will vote for, 29% are "leaning toward someone" and 47% are "still trying to decide."

 

Comments
Chris S.:

Clinton's number is 36%, not 39%.

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Michael:

Hey Eric,

I mentioned this in the comments section of another post, but is there any chance we can get a look at the more-sensitive trend estimator for Iowa and NH? I know you guys run those for Pres. Approval and the national primary polls sometimes, but since Iowa and NH have such importance, and at this point are so close, it'd be kinda cool if we could see something thats a little quicker to react to changes than the current, more conservative trend estimator (with the caveat, of course, that it's also more likely to respond to random noise)

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Jesse:

I don't get something here. The follow-up question indicates that only 53% of NH Dems have definately decided or are leaning toward a candidate, but the candidate totals add up to nearly 90%.
I get that polls push leaners to pick a candidate, but these numbers seem to indicate they're also pushing people who aren't even leaning. How accurate could this possibly be? And is there a way to find out the numbers amongst just the definately decided and the true leaners?

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Mark Blumenthal:

Jesse: Good question. It's all about the difference between a preference (which the typical vote question measures) and whether the respondent has reached a final decision (as measured by the question about certainty that UNH asks just before the vote). The order and language used by UNH may exaggerate the uncertainty a bit, but the big gap you notice is evidence that many minds in New Hampshire are not made up, despite 90% being able to express a preference. I blogged about this issue earlier in the year here and here.

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