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POLL: CNU Virginia Senate


A new Christopher Newport University's Center for Public Policy statewide survey of 700 registered voters in Virginia (conducted 9/27 through 10/1) finds:

  • 55% approve of the job Gov. Tim Kaine is doing; 25% disapprove, 10% are mixed.
  • Former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner leads both Republican Rep. Tom Davis and former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore (51% to 27% each) in statewide general election match-ups for U.S. Senate.

 

Comments
Steve:

Don't count the GOP out on that Senate race, not in a state where the GOP still counts as a majority. I know Warner is currently favored to win, but Jim Gilmore (the likely nominee) is still a very viable candidate and former governor.

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While the above poster is right in saying not to count out the GOP, it should be astounding to think that a Democratic is leading by 20+ points for a senate race in what used to be a solidly-red Southern state. Warner and Kaine have completely revilatized the Virginia Democratic Party, and even Republican-heavy areas such as my hometown of Winchester are becoming battlegrounds. I would give the edge in this race to Warner because of his popularity around the state and also mention that the Democrats should continue to make gains in state and local races next month.

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Steve In CA:

Depends on the nominee...Gilmore has no chance in this race. Davis can claim (accurately) that his 24-34 point deficits in all the polls is attributable to name recognition.

Gilmore cannot make that claim. His name rec is almost identical to Warner's. And he STILL loses by 24-34 points.

If it is Davis, it could be competitive. If it is Gilmore, Warner wins by double digits. Gilmore would get annihilated in the heavily populated NoVa precincts, whereas Davis (who is based there) should be more competitive for those votes.

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