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POLL: Cook Political/RT Strategies National


Cook Political Report / RT Strategies

National survey
Conducted April 17-20, n=802 registered voters
Results, crosstabs

Obama 45%, McCain 44%
Clinton 45%, McCain 45%

 

Comments
J_from_Germany:

I can hardly believe it: http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/exitPoll.shtml?state=PA&race=P&jurisdiction=0&party=D
Is this realy an exit poll? Note the question:"No matter how you voted today...". and the number of undecideds.

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J_from_Germany:

[Comment deleted. See my post below. -- Mark B]

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Uri:

There are no exit poll results at 4PM on election day no matter what. They poll up until the polls nearly close, and aggregate the data. They wouldn't aggregate them on a publicly accessible database.
This is just a test run for the data.

Also, no website would use the client's time to display time-sensitive information. It would use the server time.

Doesn't make sense.

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J_from_Germany:

Sorry guys. The site seems to be offline now. I just sent a pdf print of the results to questions@pollster.com. I hope they will publish them soon.

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Mark Blumenthal:

Just a caution to everyone about the comments from J_from_Germany: Right now (4:35 p.m. eastern time) the only people who should have any sort of access to the exit poll estimates are locked in the so-called "Quarantine Room" a windowless room somewhere in New York.

Until 5:00 p.m., no one outside that room -- including the IT people at CBS who will ultimately put the tabulations onine -- is supposed to have access to the real numbers, electronic or otherwise.

So unless I hear otherwise, I am going to assume this is test data. I know that the exit pollsters usually conduct a "dress rehersal" to test their system a few days prior to the election. They usually have interviewers call in results from fake filled-in questionnaires they send out to make sure interviewers know how to tabulate them properly. I'd wager that's what J_from_Germany saw.

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J_from_Germany:

After having a closer look at this "exit poll" I absolutely agree with Mark, since some of the "results" are more than weird, like Clinton winning the AA vote. Sory about that!

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Mark Blumenthal:

An update: Kathy Frankovic emails to confirm my suspicion that the data that J_from_Germany saw is "not real." They are checking on the source, but it is either dress rehearsal data (as per my comment above) or an error.

Again, the personnel that will ultimately put the real data online do not yet have access to it.

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Uri:

This is not real data, J.
It has no black voters, for example.

It's probably a test run database.

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Uri:

Mark, why does CNN has indications that "First exit poll data at 5PM?". Does that mean they'll release anything or that the campaigns and media will have some secret data they don't publish but hint at?

Standard policy had been to have Wolf Blitzer countdown at 8pm...

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Mark Blumenthal:

@Uri: The results go from the quarantine room to the producers, editors and others at 5:00 (which is to say...right now), but they are under contractual obligation to keep estimate data embargoed until the polls close.

As in the past, once the producers and reporters get it, the estimates inevitably leak, although those early leaks have often (but not always) erred in Obama's favor.

Some exit poll results will get on air and posted online through official sources before the polls close. These are usually results to issue and other questions that give no hint of vote preference.

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scuttler:

i had an opportunity to work phones for a short time at a candidate's office. what blew me away were the enormous 'undecideds'. they were far more than polled and varied to a degree from volunteer to volunteer. but the average we got was more in the neighborhood of 25%.

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Uri:

The exit polls previews on CNN say 1:7 is new voter, most for Obama. HRC lost support among older voters. And 92% of AAs voted for Obama. It's going to be an Obama night.

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tom brady:

white males 55-45 for Clinton? Yikes!

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Uri:

Also, most public university students in PA study away from their homes (e.g., Pitt students are from Philly, Penn State are from Pitt and Philly), etc. They vote absentee and are hence not counted in exist polls.

Hillary's done, unfortunately.

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Mark Blumenthal:

All: I've started the live blogging exit poll thread here.

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kingsbridge77:

If you idiots did not realize it, this thread is about a new Cook Political poll that pitted Obama and Clinton against McCain.
Learn how to read. Why is the comment section full of talk about exit polls in Pennsylvania?

I can't believe how dumb the readership of Pollster.com is.

Wow. Ban me from this site please.

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s.b.:

Interesting.

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