Nickberry:

Very interesting how well Clinton still does when so many have already written her off as the Democratic nominee.

First... since I live in Washington State.... the polls make sense in relation to the Washington State primary results (Obama 51% and Hillary 46%)... in fact almost a mirror... even though the primary did not count because Democrats used the caucus results which highly favored Obama (Obama 68% Clinton 31%).

Obama won Maine closed caucuses by 59% to 40%... yet Hillary matches Obama in a general match up with McCain.

Clinton is also tracking ahead of Obama in the National polls in match ups with McCain... but in reality here all three are within the margin of error... aka essentially tied.

Posted on May 16, 2008 3:33 PM

 Knute:

I suggest we wait until HRC is no longer a choice in the presidential matchups before drawing any firm conclusions about the relative strength of the Democratic or Republican nominee.

How do you suppose the matchup would look if, for example, the Republican race was still up in the air between John McCain and Mitt Romney - and respondents had to chose between them and BHO only?

The numbers would probably be something like:
BHO 55% - JMC 41%
BHO 57% - MR 39%

Once HRC is no longer a factor, I expect BHO will receive a sizable bump and register consistently above the MOE in a one-on-one matchup with JMC - at least until October, when things become really interesting.

Posted on May 16, 2008 4:00 PM

 RS:

@Nickberry:
The Washington primary was among Democrats (and anybody else who could vote in the primary - not sure if it is open or closed) - a pure-Democrat or mostly-Democrat voter base.

The GE poll is among all voters - big difference.

The numbers matching up is *pure* coincidence.

Posted on May 16, 2008 4:27 PM

 Nickberry:

I think there may be a possibility of more than "pure" coincidence there... but then again I was making an observation... not a definitive statement of any kind.... AND you missed my point that the "relative" popularity of Obama and Hillary was reflected in the Democratic primary.

FYI...Washington State ballots had Democrats on one side and Republicans on the other. One marked on the ballot if they were voting Democrat or Republican and then could only vote that side of the ballot. There is NO party registration to vote as in a closed primary like Oregon. Primary votes cast: Democrats 691,381, Republicans 529,932... 57% and 43% total votes cast respectively.

P.S. I do not see how your argument applies by any measure when you look at the polling details.

Posted on May 16, 2008 9:01 PM

 Nickberry:

My P.S. comment was for Knute.

Posted on May 16, 2008 9:03 PM