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POLL: Daily Tracking (7/21-23)


Rasmussen Reports
7/21-23/08; 3,000 LV, 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 48, McCain 45

Gallup Poll
7/21-23/08; 2,660 LV RV, 2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 45, McCain 43

 

Comments
1magine:

3% National lead = a 97% liklihood of an electoral college victory - - or if you listen to the MSM it means the race is virtually tied.

Can't wait for the first debate 10 minutes and counting...

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Dave:

1magine: Where did you learn statistics?

A 3% lead with a margin of error of 2% means we cannot distinguish whether a lead actually exists or not. If you were a bayesian, you would be arguing that we are 96% sure that Obama has somewhere between 46-50% of the vote, and McCain has 43-47% of the vote.

The only conclusion we can realistically come to from these numbers is that WE CANNOT TELL WHO IS TRULY WINNING.

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marctx:

I think Obama is winning but McCain has the momentum...or Obama has negative momentum. I think McCain will tie or get the lead after the VP picks. Obama will loose a point or two after he snubs Hillary supporters. Also, any pick can only hurt because if he picks a westerner to try to steal NV, NM, SD, etc. he'll loose OH, MI, and maybe PA. If he chooses an Easterner...well forget about CO, SD, MT, and NM.

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