August 26, 2008
POLL: Daily Tracking (8/23-25)
Gallup Poll
8/23-25/08; 2,684 RV, 2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
National
McCain 46, Obama 44
Rasmussen Reports
8/23-25/08; 3,000 LV, 2%
Mode: IVR
National
McCain 46, Obama 46
By Eric Dienstfrey on August 26, 2008 1:20 PM | Permalink
Comments
Probably the brain-dead pumas skewing the results after the biden pick....sore losers.
If I am not wrong, Gallup tracking showed 2 pts Obama lead a few days ago. Does anybody beleive 5% change is possible in a week?
Daily tracking polls do not tell much unless you are looking for a trend. I think it is a very tight game, which makes daily tracking polls less meaningful.
TheVoice_99:
Keep up ur foul language and that is what will happen in Nov also.
U think dumbf--ks like u are going to get NObama any more votes. He is going down thanks to morons like u.
In Biden's words:
"Obama is not ready to be the president", I agree.
What a ticket these idiot Dems have chosen in a year they had the best chance to win!!.
Sure LOSERs.
marctx
you keep hollerin about a bounce like its already happened. daily tracking are not good indicators of where the electorate is.other polls have barack leading. which tells you one thing. noone knows who going to win. its not trending either way. usa today/gallup had mccain up 5 and now he down 3. so to put an end to it there is not mccain trend. there is no obama trend. there are simply different polls that have going back and forth for months now. neither will get a real bounce. and if they do so what. doesnt mean the election is over. it isnt over till nov 4. even if polls one of them up by 15 it still isnt over till nov 4
Probably, the previous Obama leaners were "disappointed" in the VP pick.
Really, funny. If the leaners and undecided move to McCain, then only Obamanation will be the real "sore losers."
Strange results though. There was supposed to be a pre-convention bump (did not happen), a VP bump (did not happen), and now we are waiting to see if there is a convention bump. And that last bump will be limited to a very short time span because the Republican VP pick (this Friday?) and their convention begins September 2.
When the post mortem of this election cycle is written, Obama's ill-conceived, ill-fated 3am text message will be seen as the pivotal moment it all started sliding downhill. Pure hubris.
Ciccina,
I agree, it was pure non-sense, but expected from NObama. He has nothing else to offer.
Wow... Great news.... I hope Romney as VP will seal the race for McCain. ODumbO can cry and blame that no one voted for him b'coz of racism.
Hey... saywhat90....Daily tracking in fact does record "bumps" because it is "daily" tracking (using a compilation of 3 days). Gallup and Rasmussen are the most useful for spotting trends. No polls can predict outcomes in an election over 2 months from now, but they certainly do illustrate where the race stands at that moment.
McCain needs to send Obama a bottle of wine and a thank you card for picking Biden. Biden is oppositte to everything Obama is about. Bad pick by the Obama camp.
He should get a bounce from his speech later this week. He delivers a scripted speech better than most. I just don't think he can hold on to it. I still think McCain pulls away a bit when the debates start.
pathetic pumas will see a major backlash against clinton for decades if they don't get on board. if obama loses hillary will be blamed and will have no chance in 2012. YOU THINK 1 AA OR REAL OBAMA SUPPORTER WILL VOTE FOR HER????????
THEY WILL HOLD IT AGAINST HER, BILL, AND PROBABLY CHELSEA TOO.....GO AHEAD AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS LOSERS.
Oh and by the way, mccain has now said he is against ALL forms of abortion, even rape and incest. Yiikes, have fun with that puma twats. Hope your daughters don't get raped - the liberal justices on the court are leaving soon - and it will be open season on roe v wade. Have fun with your choice - Mr. Misogyny!!!!
Let's assume that what Republicans or sore loser Hillary supporters are right on these:
- Obama has no experience
- He is very very leftist elitist out of touch
- He is racist
- He is idiot
- Biden was the worst mistake you can do.
- He is arrogant and cocky
- He puts his ambition in front of his country
..
On the other hand
- McCain is a great man and POW
Even under this circumstances, Obama leads the national average by 1-2%. Don't you think something is wrong here?
Obama hit a nail in his coffin by not picking Clinton. This guy is so over confident that will eventually prove to be his undoing. That's good in a way, since Clinton can run again in 2012. Meanwhile, I think Mccain is much more qualified to fill in for 4 years.
Marctx,
No, you're not really reading that right. At least not in terms of a convention bounce. Any bounce would come during or immediately after the convention, and this poll was conducted before the convention began (with the possible exception of some west-coast calling last night).
No point in grousing about it. This is the Biden bounce... towards McCain. How permanent is it? We will know by the end of the week.
Adam Il may be right but I think the economy and the war still are the main issues.
Obama could have put the election away but he decided he couldn't work with Clinton. OK, take a deep breath. This will be a two month long bar room brawl complete with eye gouging, ear biting, groin kicking action!
WHAT FUN!
@kiptin
the daily tracker is not the leading indicator for trends.most polls with the exception of cnn have a 3 to 4 point lead for obama. they are never consistent one way or the other.once again people keep hollering about a bounce. ii m not looking for a bounce. all i look for is consistent polling trend towards one candidate or the other. i have not seen that yet. neither is in the position that they are assured victory. and just because it seems close doesnt mean either candidate is in trouble. just means its close. placing your bets on a generic dems vs repubs poll is being misled. when there is a actual face invloved the race is alot different. mccain is well known and barack isnt. but again neither has shown an absolute advantage.
hopefully, for the DNC's sake Biden can plagiarize a really good speech and pull this thing out after all.
Hillary's making an appearance on the DNC CONVENTION COMEDY SHOW tonight. Lets see what she has to say and if any of her supporters believe it. I know she has to say what she has to say so people like Voice won't be mad when she runs in 2012.
@marctx:
It's too early to see any kind of convention bounce. Both of these polls cover a) Saturday, where the Biden pick disappointed many Hillary supporters, b) Sunday, when the Biden pick was discussed by the teevee talking heads, c) Monday afternoon, where the teevee talking heads spent all day talking about party chaos and how Bill and Hill are still pissed. Let's assume that the Ted and Michelle speeches last night may have won over some former Hillary supporters. That wouldn't be reflected in these polls. Similarly, if Hillary comes out strong in her support for Obama tonight, urging her supporters to get behind him, that won't be reflected in tomorrow's tracking polls - too late.
@Stillow:
An Obama/Clinton team in the WH would be a disaster, regardless of the potential short-term electoral benefit. Obama wouldn't let her be co-president (nor should he be expected to) so she would then seek to undermine him, with Bill always lurking in the background. Besides, her talents and strengths would be wasted in that position and I don't think she wanted it anyway.
The only VP pick that would have made the Hillary holdouts happy was Clinton. And that couldn't happen for the above reasons. Bayh - he's a Clinton buddy, why not just pick Hillary? Sebelius - If you wanted a woman, why not just pick Hillary? Kaine - he's too inexperienced, like you, why not just pick Hillary? Biden represents a short-term hit for a long-term benefit - a necessary attack do with strong foreign policy experience.
@ All Hillary Holdouts
At the end of the day, Hillary lost the primary by the rules laid out before it started, rules she agreed to. The Hillary holdouts can talk all they want about MI & FL, and the popular vote, and the silliness of caucuses, but Hillary - and her supporters - knew all of this going in and didn't voice any objections at the time. Obama won the most delegates and, as such, he won the nomination. Period. Full stop. Had Hillary's team organized a bit more in the caucus states, had they objected to the MI/FL exclusions before the voting started, they probably could have won this thing running away. They did't. And she lost. The Dems now have a candidate. If you believe in what Hillary believes, you'll either vote for him or write Hillary's name in come November 4. Or maybe you'll stay home. But voting for McCain means you don't share Hillary's beliefs. It's that simple.
i will be voting for obama to make it clear my choice. but i am also a realist. im not going to try and spin these numbers to make my choice for pres look better. the numbers are what they are. but i look at all the polls.and from what i gather mccain has made some gains but he has made some losses. same for obama. state to state the polls have not really given either a significant advantage.
I've noticed there are two kinds of comments here: (1) good faith analysis of poll results, and (2) trash-talking.
I've also noticed which side (2) is coming from.
Voice_99:
Who cares what you Obama morons or AA voters do in the future. U have nowhere else to go.
U will come back to vote for Dems even if PUMAs make u lose this time.
LOL!!
Wanna bet moron?
Couldn't you say the same of puma tards?
Kinda sad imagining a bunch of middle-aged/elderly women backing a guy who is a misogynist and likes to tell rape jokes in his spare time. He is so anti-woman, it is kinda like a jew supporting a nazi for president. Too Funny!!!
really no way of getting around this.
I am wondering part of this isnt about Russia making More threatening noises
MOSCOW (AFP) - Russia on Tuesday formally recognised the Georgian rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states in a startling new challenge to the West that drew a hail of criticism.
President Dmitry Medvedev's declaration in a televised address prompted bursts of celebratory gunfire on the streets of South Ossetia and Abkhazia but strong censure from the United States and the European Union.
In Georgia, President Mikheil Saakashvili lambasted the Russian move as an "attempt to wipe Georgia from the map" and promised a "peaceful struggle" against Russia's decision.
Medvedev was unapologetic, saying when asked if he feared a new Cold War: "We're not afraid of anything."
@Voice_99:
Even current Obama supporters may think differently in eight years. Look at how the Kennedies and Carter are all preaching unity and sucking up to Obama when you had the JFK/LBJ fight and then Ted Kennedy's attempt to steal the nomination from Carter.
The interesting thing about the national surveys is that usually a VP pick ups a candidate, especially going into the convention. The pickup may be whatever Obama gets from his great speech in Invesco field, and minus all the people who are disgusted by the communist-Russia style roll call.
I really don't understand this. Does Obama's ego not allow him to win by the same marging he originally won? Does he really need to make it seem like Clinton barely get any votes? Do people not know it was close ?
@SwingVote: In a country where John Kerry gets swiftboated by GWB, everything is possible :)
Oh no, scary russians, oh no, we need a 80 year old that is experiencing early alzheimers to run the show. his pow experience 40 years ago will light the way. never mind he supported the worst foreign policy blunder in the history of this country. we need the old guy whose brain is degrading......
Uri-
The race was over in february. the clinton people put out bs making it seem like she had a chance making dems waste millions on a race that was long over. the media helped them out since it is all about ratings with them.
hillary is lucky to even get a roll call. she lost - either get on board or face the consequences. or go be a retardlican. your choice.
@Uri
Had Kerry not thrown away his medals and testified that our troops are war criminals, the swiftboat thing would not have stuck. The left claims its "negative" to point out what the other guy has done or said.
Voice_99
It's so nice to have you speaking on behalf of Obama. You should really ask for a raise.
Hillary Clinton and her supporters could have a roll call if she wanted and there is nothing Obama could do about it. She is just doing her duty as a democrat and trying to do this comedy skit to help the poor dude.
People seriously need to take a chill-pill and read more-informed opinions, such as:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/measuring_the_bounce.php
[Links to Mark B's National Journal column.]
Ciccina: You keep pushing that "3 AM text" drivel - just isn't true. By the way, have you ever stopped to think whether Clinton was right to even put out that ad? As Reagan said, "thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow [Party-member]."
It isn't like Obama is the only person to blame, and the Clintons probably did far more to feed the GOP ad-machine (Bill, even as recently as a few days back). But PUMAs don't want to see that.
@everyone
I have never ever read so much reaction based on so little. McCain unusually gets to 46% in a poll!
Its a tight race with 25% of the Democrat vote loose. 50% of the Independent loose. Maybe 15% of the Republican vote loose. That's a lot of undecided and churn (25%-30% of the electorate).
Goodness me this is the best thing that could have happened at this time, the various factions in the Democratic Party are going to unite behind on one platform.
"The country can not afford to have 4 more years of a Republican Presidency" Hillary's message tonight as well as hammering home the repressive (my word) nature of a McCain regressive domestic and economic presidency.
The General is going to be just as much fun as the Democratic Primaries.
Voice_99:
Oh ya you idiot, if the race was over in Feb, then how come obama lost big time in the last 10 primaries. Oh these voters don't matter because they don't buy Obama's BS.
You dimwits with blinders are going to help Obama lose. You should be his spokesman!
marctx - why don't you write in bush this time around. worked well the first two times......
the Nov election is for Dems to lose. Reps were going not expected to win anyway.
Obama morons like on this blod will help Dems achieve.
They are good at snatching defeat from the jawas of Victory.
Even with lousy economy and Iraq mess, McCain is even with Obama.
There should more idiots like Voice_99 for Obama.
the Nov election is for Dems to lose. Reps were going not expected to win anyway.
Obama morons like on this blog will help Dems achieve.
They are good at snatching defeat from the jawas of Victory.
Even with lousy economy and Iraq mess, McCain is even with Obama.
There should more idiots like Voice_99 for Obama.
RS: I am not "pushing" any "drivel." The Gallup article itself refers to the 3am message. Further, this Wall Street Journal article confirms the same. (See below). Do your research before you start insulting people. Its not like I haven't shown you this link before (elsewhere).
The 3am ad was perfectly appropriate in the context of a contested primary. There was nothing unusual or remarkable about that ad. Why you quote Ronald Reagan is a mystery.
The GOP doesn't need "feeding" by the Clintons. Don't be absurd. Do you think the GOP wouldn't have figured out on their own that Obama has zero experience with foreign policy, etc?
-----
Here's your 3am reference.
"At about 3 a.m., Obama headquarters dispatched the message, which named Sen. Joseph Biden. It was relayed through servers at Distributive Networks' office to phone companies, and from there to cellphones across the U.S. "I'm not sure if that was the optimum time," said Mr. Bertram. "But that's when the campaign decided to send it."
["Mr. Bertram is chief executive of Distributive Networks, a Washington, D.C.-based mobile technology firm the campaign hired to send out its text messages -- including the one it had said it would use to break the news of Sen. Obama's vice-presidential selection."]
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121944790472265161.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
The Obama camp's actions leading up to convention seemed a little odd. They looked nervous, and the Biden pick almost confirms it. One could only guess that their private polls were reflecting a falling away from his base of support. Its wasn't only the white voters, but the black voters as well.
I gotta say its fun watching you hillary supporters beat up on the obama supporters and vice versa.
The community on this site suddenly got unbearable.
RS, did you read the gallup poll?.. it refers to the negative reaction towards obama's frat boy mentality 3am announcement.
it was an immature , idiotic , nasty , debasing
and obama like thing to do.
You guys are funny.
Today's 3 national polls find Obama +4, McCain +2, and a dead-even race. They're a wash. Moreover, they are all pre-convention polls.
At the more important state level, there is an interesting poll here:
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_21/news/27581-1.html
This poll shows McCain ahead of Obama in a red district of CO by just 2 points. If this district turns blue, then Obama will almost certainly win CO.
Also, SurveyUSA has just released new Bush job approval ratings:
MN: 32%
MO: 33%
NM: 32%
OH: 28%
VA: 41%
WI: 36%
IA: 33%
Given that one of Obama's primary messages is that McCain = 4 or 8 more years of Bush, these polls are relevant. They indicate that McCain will have difficulty holding OH, and that Obama will have difficulty flipping VA. Also, McCain is more likely to flip WI than MN--unless, of course, he picks Pawlenty as his running mate.
Is BILL CLINTON going to endorse McCain?
DENVER — Bill Clinton appeared to undermine Sen. Barack Obama again Tuesday.
The former president, speaking in Denver, posed a hypothetical question in which he seemed to suggest that that the Democratic Party was making a mistake in choosing Obama as its presidential nominee.
He said: "Suppose you're a voter, and you've got candidate X and candidate Y. Candidate X agrees with you on everything, but you don't think that candidate can deliver on anything at all. Candidate Y you agree with on about half the issues, but he can deliver. Which candidate are you going to vote for?"
Then, perhaps mindful of how his off-the-cuff remarks might be taken, Clinton added after a pause: "This has nothing to do with what's going on now."
Maybe I misread the Gallup poll. But I see nothing about "negative reaction towards obama's frat boy mentality 3am announcement." I see that it says the poll took place after the 3 a.m. announcement, but it doesn't explicitly link the new numbers with the timing of the announcement. And it also says this is "not a statistically significant improvement over [McCain's] recent range from 43% to 45%"
Charles Franklin has reported that the Rasmussen tracker and the Gallup tracker are among the most favorable toward McCain due to "house effects." See:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_pollsters_affect_poll_resu.php
You can spin this tracking poll however you like, but the fact of the matter is Obama is underperforming where any Democrat should be by a huge percentage. Even all the left-leaning networks that love him are openly admitting it. Some of it may well be Clinton supporters (like me) who would rather just wait 4 years for a competent Democratic candidate (preferably Clinton). Some of it is probably that McCain has a long history of being moderate and independent, so he's not "scary" like Bush. And there may be some racism sprinkled in (at least in certain states). But the REALITY is Obama has very little experience and a very UNIMPRESSIVE record. If you really take a look at what he's accomplished in his entire political career (e.g. how many bills he's sponsored/gotten passed; how many committees he's chaired, etc), it's not only unimpressive; it shows a patter of downright laziness. Contrary to how he explained it, his number of "present" votes (in which he wouldn't take a stance) in IL was extremely high compared to his colleagues. He's just like the guy in high school who gets elected president of the senior class because of his magnetism and promises. There's an old saying: "Don't tell me what you're going to do. Tell me what you've done". If more American voters start tuning in to actual accomplishments (and not just speeches), the Democratic Party may finally learn its lesson, learn to select winning candidates for a change, and McCain will be on his way to one mediocre (but certainly better than Bush) term. Hillary will be back in 2012. Just you watch.
One hidden factor in discerning a candidate's level of support is campaign contributions. Persons who have given money to a candidate are probably more likely to follow through and actually cast a vote for that candidate on election day. After all, they have made an investment.
Consider this factor in some swing states:
IA ~ Obama has raised $400,000 more than McCain;
NM ~ Obama has raised almost $900,000 more than McCain;
CO ~ Obama has raised about 1.5 million dollars more than McCain;
OH ~ Obama has raised almost $300,000 more than McCain;
VA ~ Obama has raised almost 1 million dollars more than McCain.
Recent polls indicate that these states represent Obama's best bets at flips from 2004. His fundraising suggests that many people in these states have invested in him; these people are very likely voters.
In Obama's second-tier states, he has out-raised McCain in AK, MT, MO, IN, and NC.
See:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/
Barack 260 electoral votes
McCain 176 electoral votes
Hmmmmm?
@mirrorball:
Thanks for pointing out where Ciccina and Tybo were wrong - all Gallup does is say the polling was done post-Biden announcement.
@Ciccina:
Are you kidding me? Look at all the GOP ads out that star Senator Clinton. If that's not feeding the GOP ad-machine, what is? Robert Gibbs has admitted that CNN forced their hand, otherwise they'd have sent it out at 8 AM ET. But of course, you wouldn't believe that, would you?
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/25/cnn-forces-obama-to-release-vp-pick-early-2/
A Democrat who is apparently anguished over Gore's loss, but now refuses to support Obama - if that's not PUMA, I don't know what is. I am not insulting you, just sayin' it like it is.
It is almost funny, if the consequences were not so serious, watching Clinton supporters who accused Obama supporters of being a personality cult, either stay home or vote McCain, despite the vast gap between Obama and McCain on the issues. Who's caught in a cult-of-personality now?
Recalcitrant Clintonistas - the Naderites of 2008.
Patrick:
Thank you for admitting that racism is a factor in this election.
As for your prediction that McCain is on his way to one term, if you are right, then tonight's big speeches--by Hillary and Mark Warner--may be a preview of the Democratic contest in 2012.
McCain undeniably has more experience than Obama--he's much older than Obama. McCain also seems more likely to start wars with Iran and Russia--which many voters do find "scary."
this site has become a McCain/Republican echo chamber. It's not wonder that most of the world hates us.
But why should we care, right? We are the big bad United States, and nobody can mess with us. We'll just bomb them. Or something.
Very interesting about the fundraising...but it does not break it down between pre-convention and post convention available money. In other words, Obama's contributions are for both ($2300 max each per individual = total $4600 possible), whereas McCain is only receiving donations for pre-convention (limited to $2300) because he opted into public financing.
Mike_in_CA:
"But why should we care, right? We are the big bad United States, and nobody can mess with us. We'll just bomb them. Or something."
Good point.
Republicans talk about how tough they are on national security. Russia invaded Georgia and got what they want. What did the Republican administration do? NOTHING! If USA was the USA in 2000, Russia would not even think about it. They were not even able to help Serbia.
Excuse me, RS, but I said the Gallup article references the 3am call. That is true. You have yet to apologize for misrepresenting what I said, nor have you admitted you were wrong. This is beneath you, as are the pointless insults.
By the way, I am not insulted by being called a PUMA. I am a PUMA. That is true.
What I am not is dishonest. Go back, read carefully, and think about it.
mirrorball:
Maybe I misread the Gallup poll
.....
finally something we can all agree with!
:)
Ciccina
What you think is not really worthy of civilized comment is it?
@Mike_in_CA
You still can't stand it that not everyone thinks like you do. Its that blasted common sense getting i nthe way of your leftist utopia again.
Oh those evil republicans and there bombs. I'm not sure if I should laugh at you or cry for you.
"but it does not break it down between pre-convention and post convention available money."
lol! no analysis of the facts allowed!
For all you PUMA's out there, I understand your emotion and frustration, but looking past the next few years to 2012 for Hillary is a terrible thing to do. One of Hillary's main platforms was health care reform. Obama is much closer to her on this than McCain who's healthcare plan is just increasing the standard tax deduction, big help. But if you are going to wait four years. Think about this, how many children will die because they don't get the access to health care that they need? How many families will lose their homes because break apart at the seams when they can't afford to pay for an unexpected illness or accident? How many families will mourn the loss of loved one killed in Iraq? Four years is too long for many people. It is much more serious for these people than the hard feelings leftover from a primary. If you believed in Hillary and her platform which main planks were Health Care Reform and a responsible exit in Iraq, then a vote for McCain flies in the face of everything she stood for. I beg you Puma's to put everything in perspective and not vote for Obama because of party ID, but because that you care about the children in America and our soldiers abroad.
@Ciccina:
How very Clintonian of you! Parse well, my friend.
You said Obama's "3 AM text" will be the pivotal moment.
Then, in response to my post questioning the "3 AM text = hubris" message you push, you say "Gallup also references the 3 AM text."
That pretty clearly insinuates (as Tybo picked up) that Gallup says the 3 AM text was a pivotal turning point, supporting your original supposition. So I am not wrong, I don't think.
Just to be clear, I never said you are dishonest, I am just saying you misread the situation. I apologize if my original post wasn't clear in that regard.
Thanks for acknowledging you are a PUMA, so now I know where you stand.
By the way, you rely on Murdoch's WSJ - which really wants McCain to win, and is anti-progressive - to give you the truth about the text message. What's next - the Pittsburgh Trib-Rev?
@jradMIT
You are absolutely dilusional. If you don't vote for Obama you want kids to die, people to lose there homes and more soldiers to be killed? You are sick.
@jradMIT: Do you really think Obama believes in solving the healthcare crisis ? He only picked that topic and invented a half-assed plan so he could neutralize Hillary's greatest asset and the thing she had been pushing for the past 16 years.
If you want to know Obama's stance on healthcare, look at Michelle and Axelrod's work in Chicago: A PR campaign to get poor people to go to community centers instead of real hospitals so the hospitals can treat the reach and insured.
Its not delusional. McCain wants to stay in Iraq for an extended time. Even now in the "calm" of Iraq are there not soldiers giving the ultimate sacrifice. How many kids who have asthma and other treatable conditions will not receive the health care they need? What do you think will happen to some of them? Did I say you "want" kids to die? No, I just am arguing if you want better access to health care like Hillary and Obama and to end the war in Iraq, four years a long time. Your delusional if you think that 4 years of innaction will not yield the same negative consequences that both candidates want to prevent.
Let me enlighten those Obamamorons caring about what rest of the world thinks about USA.
Rest of the world doesn't give a f--k who the president of USA is!! Those who follow Bin Laden's religion stiil going to try to kill u even if God forbid, Obama is the president.
These morons believe in the Myth that the world is suddenly going to start loving us.
This BS is spread by MS and liberal BS sites.
Uri, do you really think McCain will do more than Obama on this? Honestly, have you seen his plan, just increase the deduction like that would make the dramatic impact that is needed. At least Obama mentions health care, McCain acts like it is the least of his priorities. Its like if you have a broken leg, McCain is telling you to take vitamins. Yeah that will help, but you have a crisis that needs more direct action and fundamental change.
@jradMIT
Wow.....you need some help.
Obama can still pull it off. It's not panic time. Let the PUMAs do their emotional thing. Obama should focus on the economy. He should repeat it like a mantra, economic message first, last, always. Romney has a net worth of over $200 million. McCain and Romney, two millionaire fat cats that don't give a crap about jobs or the middle class.
Romney has been involved in jobs outsourcing. Tax cuts for the rich is their plan to help the middle class. Turn health care over to big business. That's their plan. Health care costs are one of the biggest causes of bankruptcy for middle class Americans.
WHY AREN'T WE TALKING ABOUT THIS!!!?
Because of the silly, stupid soap opera between Barack and Hillary. I say stop the name calling and hatred. Their is too much at stake.
That's the problem. Obama can't seem to articulate that his tax plan is better for 90% of American's than McCain's. He can't call McCain on the carpet about Bush's $4 trillion spending spree including $1 trillion for Iraq. He should be telling Americans that the devaluation of their currency is what has caused part of the gasoline price increase and that McCain has no plans to change any of it. And in debate, he should challenge McCain to show how his policies are any different than what Bush would do.
Usual Dumbo-crats BS. Want to look up how rich some of the Dems are, start with Kerrey, Kennedy ...
Just when u think Obamabots can't get any more stupider, they do. And they epect voters to be equally stupid.
@zotz
you libs are so full of hate that it clouds your common sense reasoning ability. Tax the rich, right.....do you want to guess what the unemployment rate is in Europe or do you want me to just tell you?
Tax, tax, tax, tax...do you guys have nothign else to do other than take peoples money and spend it for them? I assume you are employed by a poor person....cus evil rich guys like Romney and McCain hate people and jobs right?
You guys on the left are full of yourselves and your holier than thou nonsense you spew everyday.
ca-indp-
Is the reason that want to throw "mud" because you know you can't win debating the issues?
Where you get all that "mud" anyway? No, don't tell me. I already know.
@ Stillow: If you're gonna spend, you have to tax. Where do you think all the money for stupid wars comes from? It doesn't grow on trees, though Republicans seem to think it does. Its all been put on the credit card by Bush and Co, and will have to be paid off eventually, with interest.
Regarding the polls, most of this is just mental masturbation with no significance. Oh, McCain is up slightly among registered voters in a tracking poll! Its all over! Oh wait, in 9 of 10 other polls its Obama that's up, not to mention that the Electoral Math favors him. Wait till the conventions are over, wait till the campaign, then we'll may be have some real answers.
Zotz:
What is there to debate when u guys throw usual leftist c--p? Like Rep candidates are all rich and Dems are all from hardworking middle class families and somehow care for them.
This is pure non-sense. You expect voters to fall for extinct class-warfare BS?
You can have put on blinders, that's why can't figure out how your Messiah is falling in polls.
@sjt22
I assume you are employed by a poor person? Since the left hate wealthy people.
Or are you employed by a corporation, which the left also hates?
Tax the rich, tax them into oblivion so you can pay for your entitelemtns and hand outs. Free abortion clinics on all corners. Don't be responsible and have kids when your ready, make them and kill them and your neighbor can pay for it.
Receive a welfare check, its on us. No, no need to work for it or come do community service, you just sit there and enjoy life, we'll take care of everything.
you want higher taxes? Then be prepared for double digit unemployment like most of your European countries.
@jradMIT: I honestly believe that Obama does not give a damn about healthcare. He only picked this topic because it was strategically valuable.
The media tried to ridicule it, but the debate about universal coverage or not exposed it. Obama believes in market forces. He is a hardcore capitalist in his views, which figures with his Chicago school of economics buddies. He just needs to sell himself to his crowd.
I'll paraphrase Bill Clinton: Between the candidate that promises everything I believe in but doesn't mean a word and the one with whom I agree on half the things, I'd pick the latter (if I could vote, that is, unfortunately).
In fact, I would argue that in many ways Obama is worse than McCain. This country is coming out of eight years of rule by a theocratic president. It does not need a president who wants faith based initiatives and all that stuff. McCain may be a conservative, but I think he is much more secular than Obama, and I like that.
Stillow, Uri:
Well said, I think voters are waking up to the fact that Obama in an opportunist and fraud like any other power hungry politician.
McCain wants my tax money to fight wars and give big no-bid contracts to Blackwater and Halliburton. Is spending the money on health, education, rebuilding roads, levees here in America so terrible an idea. Why do you call that hate? The rich weren't suffering so much in the 90s. That is the tax level where Obama wants to take the country.
It is the Republicans that are waging class warfare. They are stripping the middle class of the wealth they used to have, the good jobs they used to have, the health care they used to have and giving back non-union jobs at half the salary with reduced or non-existant health care and worse pensions.
American CEOs make over 300 times what the average worker makes. In Germany the CEOs make about 20 times the averave worker. In Japan it is even less! Do you think American products are that much better than Japanese products. If so, tell that to Toyota. If greed were an Olympic sport, the US would win the gold medal every time. I don't hate rich people, I just don't worship them. There is more to success than being a multi-billionare.
Actually, while the EU nations do have a somewhat higher unemployment rate than the US, (roughly 7.3% for the EU area to the US 5.7%, depending on exactly what measure of unemployment used) only two EU countries have double figure unemployment, Spain and Slovakia, and they are skirting around 10, (some measures have them just below 10).
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/portal/docs/PAGE/PGP_PRD_CAT_PREREL/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008_MONTH_04/3-30042008-EN-BP.PDF
For folks who are more inclined to some reading, I suggest David Leonhardt's piece in the NYT, particularly this page:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/magazine/24Obamanomics-t.html?pagewanted=5&_r=1&em
Leonhardt: As per the Tax Policy Center, McCain's plan would cut taxes for 80% of the population - those making $118k/year or less - by an average of $200. Obama's plan would cut taxes by $900 on average.
[As Philip Barnett writes in the Arizona Republic, that savings will likely be spent, improving the pocketbooks of the upper-income earners. Win/win for all.]
It's true that Obama's plan would increase taxes on the rich - but not as much as taxes were under Clinton, when you factor in the rise in their pretax inflation-adjusted income. In fact, much of the tax hike would just be allowing Bush's temporary tax-cuts to expire.
Republicans always say that cutting taxes stimulates the economy. Allowing consumers to keep more money - $900 vs $200 - should increase spending, and improve stockholder incomes... As the AZ Republic opinion states, win/win.
Some people are surprised that national polls are as close as they are. One possible reason is that McCain is performing better in some deep red states than Bush did in 2004.
In the Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, SC), one recent poll found McCain ahead of Obama by an average of 25 points. See: http://www.thestate.com/local/story/498085.html
Bush beat Kerry by 25% or more in only one of these states--AL (26%). In LA, Bush won by 15%; in MS, by 20%; in GA, by 17%; and in SC, by 17%.
In addition to this improved performance in the Deep South, McCain is also out-performing Bush in two other southern states (according to Rasmussen), AR (by 4%) and TN (by 11%).
While McCain will take gains in these 7 states, they do not help him win new electoral votes--they only help him keep the national numbers close. If the national McCain-Obama numbers are about the same as the national Bush-Kerry numbers were, and if McCain is performing better than Bush in the states named, then McCain is not performing as well as Bush (on average) in the other 43 states--which include all of the states most likely to flip.
That sure seems convoluted reasoning to explain McCain's closeness in the national polls. Especially, since these national polls are "random" samples.
RS: You are still misrepresenting what I wrote.
I wrote, quite simply, "When the post mortem of this election cycle is written, Obama's ill-conceived, ill-fated 3am text message will be seen as the pivotal moment it all started sliding downhill. Pure hubris."
In other words, I was suggesting that if you picture a post-election day retrospective timeline, several factors will be seen as having converged this week to change the momentum in the race, and that this turning point (or "tipping point") could be aptly symbolized by the text message. "Pure hubris" was my own shorthand reference to Senator Obama's apparent disregard of these factors. Time will tell whether I'm right or wrong.
It was Gallup's shorthand mention of the 3am text message that prompted my thought. That is all. You mistakenly inferred the rest.
I value my ability to "parse," or to use words carefully. Its a skill you might wish to refresh.
KipTin:
I don't understand the point of your post at 5:07 in response to mine re: fundraising. My point was to provide info that may give a hint as to which states have the most invested Obama supporters, who in turn are very likely to follow through and actually cast a vote for him in November. Your point about Obama's fundraising being for both the pre-convention cycle and the post-convention cycle seems irrelevant.
Per that subject, Obama and the DNC started August with the same amount of money as McCain and the RNC. McCain is required to spend his money before his convention. After his convention, he will be limited to a total of 84 million dollars until election day. The RNC can spend its money at any time.
Obama may spend all of his money by the end of this month, or he may save some for the stretch run. In addition, he will continue to raise funds. If he continues to raise about 50 million dollars a month (he has raised just over this amount in each of the last two months), then he will have about 150 million dollars to spend up to election day (August total + September total + October total). The DNC can spend its money at any time.
@ Stillow
You're a joke, a full blown caricature. I have a job and pay taxes, just like you. I don't hate wealthy people or corporations. What I do hate is when my government spends and spends and spends without having any funds to pa
Am I reading that right? McCain leading during the Biden/convention bounce?
Posted on August 26, 2008 1:29 PM