Poll: Daily Tracking for 7-02
Mark Blumenthal | July 2, 2008
Gallup Daily
6/29-7/1/08; 2,665 RV
National
Obama 46, McCain 44
Also from Gallup:
As Independents Shrink, Democrats Gain
Hispanic Voters Solidly Behind Obama (video)
Rasmussen Reports
6/29-7/1/08; 3,000 LV
National
Obama 49, McCain 44
To see how these numbers compare with the current trend, view our National Presidential chart here.
By Mark Blumenthal | July 2, 2008 4:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Comments
I do not understand why Gallup has these day of the week swings and Rasmussen does not.
Going back to June 6th, Rasmussen's poll with leaners has every sample for McCain within one point of 44% except one, and every sample of Obama within one point of 49%. Gallup on the other hand has this distinct cycle that favors Obama on the weekends and early week, and the variance is probably one factor higher on average.
Both polls are using similar samples, so it seems strange that one would vary this much and the other would be so static. I think that Rasmussen is becoming known as being an outlier in certain states results which may have to do with their party ID weighting erasing short-term surges (no sustained bump seen since Hillary dropped out nationally in either poll for instance, but this is very apparent in other national polls as well as single-state polls). Gallup seems to consistently have more favorable Obama numbers in their USA Today polls. Rasmussen has published that they use party ID weighting from the previous month for the current month, so maybe we will see that bump in July instead of when it actually occurred.
I really doubt that either of these are as accurate as they claim to be, at least under the current circumstances.
Posted on July 2, 2008 5:13 PM
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