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POLL: Daily Tracking (through 4/27)


Gallup Poll

National
Obama 47, Clinton 46
Obama 45, McCain 45... Clinton 47, McCain 44

Also
Only 33% Say McCain Has Clear Plan to Solve U.S. Problems

Rasmussen Reports

National
Obama 49, Clinton 41
Obama 46, McCain 46... McCain 47, Clinton 44

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain: 51 / 46
Clinton: 45 / 53
Obama: 51 / 46

Also
34% of Democrats Want Clinton to Drop Out

 

Comments
Knute:

Other than the remarkable number of Democrats that want HRC to drop out of the race (see Rasmussen), the numbers I am becoming more interested in are the national favorable/unfavorable ratings.

Is there any good data - or good theories, at least - about how these numbers translate into voting preferences?

The reason I am interested is because while the other polling questions are cross-tabulated with demographics, and provide a useful metric and maybe some predictive weight - the questions on favorability often seem to stand alone. And unlike the other questions, the favorability reaction goes to how the voter "feels" about a candidate - which I think has a very powerful effect upon ultimate voting behavior.

I.e., issues and demographics are rational explanations for voting behavior, but what is the relative role of intuition? How rational is voting behavior? And, of course, what candidate does a better job at leveraging the voters feelings?

Any thoughts or info?

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americaferreraisafatho:

Hillary is a republican now. She is a scorched earth type politican that can not see the bigger picture. A liar who will stop at nothing to tear down the democratic party. Just notice the poll numbers about her unfavorabilty. The polls are in flux due to her negative campaigning. Poor woman - she will go down as a lying, selfish politician with no scruples or honor.

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mago:

Whether the favorability question is about 'feelings' depends on the wording, but in general I don't see any reason to think that having an overall favorable opinion of a candidate is a less rational basis for voting than agreeing with his or her stated position on issues.

If you think a certain candidate is dishonest or spineless, then their opinions on the issues are not that important because they can't be trusted to put them into practice. This is not a veiled slam at a particular candidate, it's just that I believe people pay way too much lip service to positions on the 'issues' which in campaign are mostly posturing.

What has had a greater impact on the Bush presidency: his issue positions during the 2000 campaign or his personal character and management style?

I would be interested to know how well favorability numbers predict voting patterns, compared with horse-race numbers.

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Patrick:

Any person who selects "americaferreraisafatho" (nice sexist, racist, fatophobic combo pack there!) as his on-screen name is probably not worth debating, but these rants against Clinton are absurd. She's a Republican now?? Gee, I thought she and Obama voted the same over 90% of the time! The poll numbers are due to her negative campaigning? This campaign is less negative than most historically have been. (But of course, when you're accused of "going negative" even when you don't even mention your opponent at all in your ads, I guess you can't help but 'go negative'). You don't think Obama's current "lull" has anything to do with the fact that as America finally gets to know him, Obama is coming across as arrogant and elitist to the working class (like Kerry did, only worse)? Or that Obama's "Spiritual LEADER OF 20 YEARS" has been shown to be a bigoted, racist freak? To me, the 2 things that are most striking in this poll are that while Clinton's negatives have always been high (in a sexist country with a mainstream media that hasn't liked her for 16 years), she's been steadily gaining strength in the national polls. I guess some voters actually suport the candidate they think will do the best job, not the one they LIKE the most. It's also interesting that 22% of Democrats want Obama to drop out (only 10% more than Clinton) when the mainstream media has been telling us over and over and over that he's the presumptive nominee and she has virtually no chance of capturing the nomination. Just wait till June after she's won (at least) IN, KY, WV, and PR (some in landslides w/ overwhelming white working class support) and after the first 6 weeks of Rev. Wright commercials - and let's see where the race stands. People (including, finally, the mass media) are really starting to question Obama's electability given the demographic make-up of the country. If he doesn't 'snag' the nomination very soon, he may very well lose it. Of course he'll lose in Nov. anyway.

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boskop:

i think obama should accept the VP position hillary offered him and run like hell. it's the only way this egomaniac who poses as an altruistic selfless pied piper will ever get the resume he needs to run a country.

plus he has time on his side, she obviously doesn't. then maybe at her side, he'll learn how the government works and that we dont appoint saviors at whose feet the other two chambers of government come to pay homage.

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Shadar:

You know, it's not the politicians that need to step back in their rhetoric, it's their internet supporters.

It does absolutely no good for Obama supporters to be so disrespectful of Hillary. It also does no good for Hillary supporters to repeat false claims about Obama. If supporters really want this campaign to be more positive then it's time to call out people who support your candidate that use hateful speech against the other candidate. You can't have a respectful campaign if you allow people who agree with you to say anything, you have to hold everyone to a higher standard.

I think both candidates should come straight out and tell their supporters to stop it right now. Obama should tell his supporters to stop name calling against Clinton and that he believes she is a great democrat who has worked hard for this country. At the same time Hillary should come out and demand her supporters stop using fear tactics against Obama such as repeating his middle name. She should also come out forcefully and state that Obama is not a Muslim and any supporter of hers who claims as much should be denounced for it because it is not true.

No one does their candidate any good by using these gutter tactics, they only hurt your candidate. Grow up, leave gutter tactics to Karl Rove and his ilk. McCain is trying his best to keep his campaign above board, I would be very disappointed as a Democrat if the republican runs the more respectful race and has more respectful supporters.

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boskop:

we're not electing a holy person guys. we're electing a savvy, gritty, clever, and tough as nails leader of our country.

life is pretty tough up at the top and the president needs to be sturdy and decent. sure, this contest is brutal but for a really good reason, it turns a wannabe into a leader with a backbone of steel.

so i am for a little mud slinging and for the press bringing everyone down, not just poor ole hillary. but she's risen to the challenge, hasn't she?

now let's see if the others have the same grit. i want a president with grit up the wazoo. i'd like to see if obama has the right stuff. but so far, all i see is a coward and an irritable kid who isn't getting the prize quite as fast as he planned and is sulking about it.

let's see these fighting cocks (and hens) peck it out. if they want the grandeur of the office they have to get down and dirty in front of me first.

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Knute:

Boy, this site is really deteriorating. I can understand the partisanship - but if you want to rant, why not just go to Slate or Huff.

Pah-lees, let's try to be a little more intelligent. Mark has created a good site, and even the pundits pay attention.

Worst thing about some of the comments above is they are so predictable - and so boring. Let's not destroy a good thing, or no one will care what you have to say.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

This just shows that Hilary's negatives have not gone down. After listening to the reports that came out today, I would have assumed that people were gravitating over to her. It really doesn't look like it. This seems to indicate to me that someone is lying to pollsters. I don't know. Maybe someone could have an unfavorable view of her and still choose her over a more favorable McCain. I think it's unlikely. These polls are really hard to explain.

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kingsbridge77:

Alert: James Zogby released a poll today apparently in response to the AP poll in which Zogby says Clinton trails McCain by 10%.

Zogby breached pollster ethics when he called Hillary to drop out of the race in the pro-Obama Huffington Post, being forceful about it:

My fellow superdelegates should wait no longer. As party leaders, we are uniquely positioned, and have the responsibility, to speak out. Indecision only serves to enable bad behavior. It is time for us to either demand that the behavior change, or act to end this now..

Spread the word: James Zogby is a pro-Obama pollster who is taking sides and has lost all credibility, and whose poll numbers are not to believed because of this bias.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/end-it-now_b_98265.html


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kingsbridge77:

Alert: James Zogby released a poll today apparently in response to the AP poll in which Zogby says Clinton trails McCain by 10%.

Zogby breached pollster ethics when he called Hillary to drop out of the race in the pro-Obama Huffington Post, being forceful about it:

My fellow superdelegates should wait no longer. As party leaders, we are uniquely positioned, and have the responsibility, to speak out. Indecision only serves to enable bad behavior. It is time for us to either demand that the behavior change, or act to end this now..

Spread the word: James Zogby is a pro-Obama pollster who is taking sides and has lost all credibility, and whose poll numbers are not to believed because of this bias.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/end-it-now_b_98265.html


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HESSIAN:

kingsbridge77, the pollster is John Zogby, and James is his brother. As far as I know, James has nothing to do with the polling firm.

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richard pollara:

The Myth of Math: The reverence for which electoral math seems to be held these days has surprised me. "She can't win! Look at the math." It is almost mathematically impossible for Clinton to win." "Its all about the numbers!" Most of this math talk comes from pundits who I am assuming are liberal arts majors. They treat math as though it is the mystical path to truth. But unfortunately the predictive power of numbers in a chaotic situation is almost nil. Try predicting the weather 10 days out and you will get a sense of what I mean. A political campaign is like a chaotic summer storm. Things happen which no one can predict. Those events ripple across the political weather system causing a storm that no one saw coming. Who would have predicted that one week before a critical primary Rev. Wright would be taking questions on national TV? A few weeks ago I listened to one commentator say that Mrs. Clinton only had a 5% chance of getting the nomination. What metric or empirical data did she use to come to that precise number?

The two biggest causalities of this election cycle have been pollsters and pundits. Both emperors have been shown to have no clothes. Pollsters have failed miserably to identify likely voters, turnout and depth of commitment. I can't say for sure but I am guessing that a demographic analysis superimposed over a map of the primary states would be much more predictive than all of the polls so far. But at least the pollsters are honestly trying. The same can not be said of the TV personalities. Have Tim Russert and company really thought it through when the make statements like, "I can't see a mathematical path to the nomination." They must not be looking very hard because there a huge highway that runs right through the state of Indiana. Looking at the recent polling I would say that road is getting wider and not narrower.

This nomination will be decided by perception and not math. Who is perceived to be the better general election candidate, who's supporters will stay home if their favorite doesn't get the nomination, who's coattails are the longest, who has the momentum now, what are the political consequences to me? All of these are open questions. Math cannot get either candidate to 2025 only humans can and those humans will vote their own self interest. Right now uncommitted super delegates and many who have committed to Obama are looking for ways to jump from the Good Ship Obama. Rev. Wright is shaking the boat. A wave from Indiana and you will see a lot of delegates in the water trying to keep from being drowned.

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Shadar:

"now let's see if the others have the same grit. i want a president with grit up the wazoo. i'd like to see if obama has the right stuff. but so far, all i see is a coward and an irritable kid who isn't getting the prize quite as fast as he planned and is sulking about it."

That's amazing... if you replaced Obama with Hillary I don't think anyone would have argued with that statement. Hillary's strategy was the Feb5th strategy. She expected to have it won by then and didn't organize in the states after feb 5th, which is why Obama won 10 in a row afterwards, his campaign was working in all the states for a long time. Thus saying Obama is mad this is going on so long strains credulity. He planned for this to be a long drawn out fight and Hillary expected to be the winner immediately and her campaign seemed bewildered that it didn't turn out that way.

It took the short break in the primaries before Texas and Ohio for Hillary to get her mojo back and to start organizing in the remaining states. She is now going full steam ahead like she should have been from the beginning. Obama, on the other hand, has had the worst pres he could possibly have over the last month. Non-stop bad press and he still is running tied or slightly ahead of Hillary in polling. I frankly have no clue how that is possible. Regan's nickname of Teflon comes to mind.

I will repeat, I like both democratic candidates. What I don't like it when both sides bash the other side and ignore the problems of their own side. Yes, Hillary is a fighter, but Obama isn't exactly a wimp either. He has faced a month of terrible press with a stiff upper lip. He has taken punch after punch from a double team of Hillary and McCain and hasn't yielded any ground to her. It is really hard to get hit from both sides in politics and to sustain your numbers, he is managing to do it. If anything this campaign has proven Obama to be a very hard guy to knock down, if not impossible. We haven't seen a single thing that has hurt him yet, perhaps he has lost his momentum, but that's all.

Dems need to stop completely bashing each other. Both candidates are great, we have the best three candidates running in my entire life. For the first time in a long time I do not entirely fear the republican candidate... but I can honestly say I would be enthused to vote for either democrat. With Kerry it was an "anyone but bush" argument I would make. Now I can honestly say I am proud to vote for either democratic candidate and it pisses me off to see fellow democrats trying to destroy our chances if they don't get their way. Decide if you care about issues or not, their is a giant gulf between McCain and either dem, if those issues mean anything to you then wake up and stop bashing your own party. Leave that to republicans (Ron Paul v McCain).

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americaferreraisafatho:

Really Patrick? Are you that sure of your opinions? Ok then, how about you put your money where your BS is? For every electoral vote Obama wins by in November, you pay out $10K, & if he loses, I'll do the same. Sound good, big talker? Post your e-mail and we'll work out the details. That's what I thought.

By the way, how is Wright 'racist' again?? Do you even know the meaning of the word? Do yourself a favor, look up 'racist' in the dictionary and show me a clip of him saying something racist. That's your homework junior. Hop to it!

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boskop:

i have to agree with shadar and the post above on a few things: first, we have a good batch of candidates all in. best in a long long time. but that doesn't mean we cant enjoy a good ole fight for the right to be the big gun.

as for the bet above and the notion that wright might be a racist, well, based on the clips looping the airwaves last night - i'd say i rather like this guy. there is nothing wrong with the kind of closed circuit doctrines he preaches to help vent frustration and share community wide irritants. in fact this is what religion seems to me to me about. i like his brain, i like his candor and i like his guts.

however, it is unfortunate for obama that if he loses the nomination it will be his own 'older uncle' who lynched him and not the white electorate.

in which case, wright has poured cold water on whatever incendiary fallout there might have been from the blacks and liberals who might have spun it as a racial divide when it the end obama was put down by an inside job.

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Shadar:

"however, it is unfortunate for obama that if he loses the nomination it will be his own 'older uncle' who lynched him and not the white electorate."

Very true. It sure seems Rev Wright is trying everything in his power to throw Obama under the bus. At this point if I were Obama I'd come out and say "as you can clearly see, we are not nearly as close as the media made us out to be".


As to Rev Wright being racist, I can't recall anything racist he has said... though I will say he is caught in the past and is unwilling to put the past behind him. I can't blame him for being mad as hell about the way Black's have been treated in America... and I can't even argue with him that America has done some pretty bad things over the years. That said, we can continue to argue about the past forever. We can continue to attack each other because of what our grandparents did to each other... or we can finally agree to start fresh and judge each other on what we ourselves do. I think that is what Obama is trying to help us to, to let us all start fresh. Is that possible? I don't know... but it seems we should try.

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kingsbridge77:

Knute, no. the number of Democrats who want Hillary to drop out is very low, despite the corporate media crying every day that she's hurting the party. A majority of Democrats want her in the race. This is consistent with a Survey USA poll that pollster.com ignored, finding that 59% of Democrats wanted her to stay in the race even if she had lost in PA.

Your pro-Obama spin is dishonest.

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