Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: Daily Tracking (Through 5/12)


Gallup Poll

National
Obama 50, Clinton 43
Obama 47, McCain 43... Clinton 49, McCain 44

Also
"Bush May Be as Harmful to McCain as Wright Is to Obama"

Rasmussen Reports

National
Obama 52, Clinton 42
Obama 47, McCain 46... Clinton 48, McCain 43

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain: 49 / 48
Clinton: 46 / 53
Obama: 51 / 47

Virginia
McCain 47, Obama 44... McCain 47, Clinton 41
Sen: Warner 55, Gilmore 37

North Carolina
McCain 48, Obama 45... McCain 43, Clinton 40
Sen: Hagen 48, Dole 47

Michigan
McCain 45, Obama 44... Clinton 44, McCain 44
Sen: Levin 54, Hoogendyk 37

 

Comments
Nickberry:

Interesting that Clinton still does so well against McCain, after Obama has been declared the presumptive Democratic nominee.

____________________

axt113:

I'm impressed that Obama does so well in all three states polled, Obama really does put more states into play, McCain won't have the funds this fall to fight off Obama in all of them

____________________

Louis:

So much about so little. If we take the Gallup Poll numbers from April 17th until today and throw out the high and low day for each candidate Obama's differnce is 4% or within the margin of error. Clinton's difference is 6% or just outside the margin of error. This is why I dislike daily rolling polls every twitch becomes an event to explain and anaylize rather than recognizing that most of the movement is not in the electorate ( which is far more stable than newsmaking pollsters like to admit) but in the limitations of the mesure.

____________________

Patrick:

It is very interesting that Obama is still polling slightly (but consistently) worse against McCain than Clinton after the media has told us he's sure to be the nominee. You'd think he would have gotten a big boost in the national match-ups. It may not matter in the long run, but it will be interesting to see what the national matchups are after the 20th - when Clinton will likely have just had her 2 biggest victories %wise (KY and WV) even as Obama is set to "declare victory". The media will surely be focused on "Why can't Obama connect with working class whites?" and "Does he need Hillary as his VP to win them over"?

____________________

axt113:

I think the reason is obvious, a lot of angry Hillary supporters, siding with McCain, Obama supporters aren't as angry, although that will change if Hillary is seen as costing Obama the election

____________________

Andrew_in_California:

I found this interesting...

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

Even polling stations have stopped spending money of the democratic race.

____________________

kingsbridge77:

Good news for McCain. He keeps the red states while flipping Michigan to the red side.

____________________

axt113:

Kingsbridge,

you do realize that McCain doesn't flip anything, he's in a statistical tie in all three states with Obama (the MOE being over 4%)

____________________

Tybo:

"Even polling stations have stopped spending money of the democratic race."

you mean the pro-barack site rasmussen is doiing something pro-barrack?
really, i am shocked!

____________________

Ciccina:

I find Rasmussen's announcement to be extremely distasteful. Polling firms should strive for impartiality. By making an announcement about something they plan to do shortly (as opposed to something they are doing right now) it sounds as if they have joined the chorus actors urging Clinton to drop out, even if that isn't their intention. It smacks of trying to negate her very presence (and by extension the views of hundreds of thousands of supporters).

Very bad form.

____________________

killias2:

God forbid the pollsters stop expending resources on a race that's been effectively over for months.

____________________

axt113:

Hillary has no legit way of winning at this point, Obama has the lead in every important measure

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

tybo,

a. it's Barack, not Barrack
b. Scott Rasmussen is a Republican. why would he be pro-Obama. Everything isn't a conspiracy you know.

____________________

Shadar:

"McCain 47, Obama 44... McCain 47, Clinton 41
Sen: Warner 55, Gilmore 37

North Carolina
McCain 48, Obama 45... McCain 43, Clinton 40
Sen: Hagen 48, Dole 47

Michigan
McCain 45, Obama 44... Clinton 44, McCain 44
Sen: Levin 54, Hoogendyk 37"


WOW. Those numbers are extremely good for dems. If a dem wins NC/VA then the entire electoral map is going to change.


And Rasmussen consistently shows better McCain numbers from what I recall in state to state polls. So saying he is pro-Obama is quite humorous.

____________________

Ciccina:

killias2: if Rasmussen announced that they *have* suspended polling the Democratic race, that would be fine. That would be useful information about a decision they had made.

Instead they are announcing that at some undetermined point in the future, they will suspend polling. But for now, they just want us to know that they think the race is over.

They're probably hoping to jump on board the media's "Obama has won" story in order to break off a little piece for themselves. "Polling Firm Declares..." etc.

Tacky, tacky, tacky.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Nickberry: Clinton does about as well as Obama vs. McCain simply because the reality is that the drift over will be very minimal. Most of those that proclaimed they supported Hillary were Republicans intent on voting for McCain anyways. In these head-to-heads you don't see that...only in the exit polls.

And Kingsbridge- You do realize that Virginia and North Carolina are two "Red States" that haven't supported a Democrat for President since the Pleistocene. For Obama to be TIED there - in RED States with a large military-base infrastructure should have the McCain campaign frightened to death. Plus Bob Barr announced that he's running on the Libertarian ticket, Ouch. It means McCain actually will have to "defend" in those States...rather than simply focusing on the "swing States".

And those down ticket races also must hurt the Republicans!

NC Sen: Hagen 48, Dole 47
MI Sen: Levin 54, Hoogendyk 37

____________________

Tybo:

Mike
YOu don't know about the ties to Obama? what kind of political junkie are you?
:)

as to your spelling correct, please notethe post, it's a typo, .. next time just correct those who spell it "billary"

....
"Most of those that proclaimed they supported Hillary were Republicans intent on voting for McCain anyways."

Really? then why do the polls show that Clinton carries the democrats? And why did Obama seek out republican cross-overs?

____________________

Nickberry:

Tybo is correct. Hillary gets the majority of Democratic support whereas Obama depends on the Independents and Republicans to carry him through.

One must realize that the Democratic Party is made up of many diverse people that include those who are more conservative than liberal.

____________________

Louis:

For all the hollering and crying that will go on the polls taken immediatly after the second convention will be within a point or two of the final results.

Also re:Rasmussen. Rasmussen personally is a conservative Republican and certainly not a Obama supporter..

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR