egc52556:

Re: "Obama's Support Similar to Kerry's in 2004"

Interesting analysis. But Obama at the moment is still splitting his support with Clinton, so perhaps this analysis marks a minimum in his support. And Kerry did not benefit from the black vote as Obama will.

Posted on May 7, 2008 3:00 PM

 Patrick:

"Obama's Support Similar to Kerry's in 2004".

Well, duh. It's also very similar to George McGovern's and Michael Dukakis' support when they lost like Kerry did. They all lost mainly because they couldn't attract enough swing voters, i.e. the white working class voters that Clinton wins overwhelmingly. They not only didn't have a Rev. Wright or a "most liberal senator" label; they were running against Republicans who were far less moderate (and in some cases, much less popular) than McCain. Democrats always carry the African American vote. Even if Obama carries 99% of it (along with more "upscale" and young voters), it won't be enough to turn enough electorally rich states from Red to Blue this year. If he loses PA, OH, and FL (which seems pretty likely), his electoral path to the White House is extremely difficult if not impossible. Kerry lost OH and FL and won PA - where his wife's family is an institution - very narrowly. Obama is not likely to do as well there. The Democrats never seem to learn from history, no matter how recent. And that's why they've won exactly 3 elections in 44 years. Ugh.

Posted on May 7, 2008 4:07 PM

 Tybo:

a sane voice patrick!

and Obama couldnt carry Indiana... his neighboring state.
The dems should be scared witless!

Posted on May 7, 2008 5:49 PM

 Andrew_in_California:

Hillary didn't carry Vermont or Connecticut, her neighboring states. How arbitrary is regionalism as an argument for this election?

People seem to forget that McCain was given the nominee by Romney and has not had to defend his record at all. This election will change many states.

Posted on May 7, 2008 6:00 PM

 PHGrl:

Here we go again. Tybo- you will take any chance you can to take pot shots at Obama - wont you? You clearly feel the need to constantly add your digs, with no polling science or substance to back up your point.

arent we here to talk about the numbers, and the analysis? or have i stumbled onto pollster.com's bizarro world?

Posted on May 7, 2008 7:22 PM

 PHGrl:

egc52556's thoughtful and intelligent post was my original reaction - i.e,. isnt it premature for Gallup to be making these comparison while the Democratic party does not have a presumptive nominee (despite what SEIU and HuffPo said yesterday)?

Moreover, a daily tracking poll vs. exit polls/actual results from a general are hardly comparable.

what did the final polling in NC and Indiana tell us? to expect a 4-5 point win for Clinton in Indiana --take Zogby out, and it was more like 7-9 points.. and NC was tightening--again with Zogby out-- a single digit win..

what happened last night? Obama wins double digit in NC, and almost upsets Clinton in Indiana..

i would like to see Gallup repeat this analysis once Clinton drops out.

Posted on May 7, 2008 7:25 PM

 Shadar:

Kerry and Obama do not have much in common. Kerry was an extremely unlikeable candidate. I say this as a younger person who would have voted for a monkey over Bush (I'll skip the easy joke here). Kerry didn't have amazing support from independents and definitely not from a good 3-5% of the republican party.

Obama, on the other hand, has amazing appeal to independents and some republicans alike. He massively motivates the black vote, Kerry did not. He also turns out the youth vote, Kerry did not.

Obama is like a super-Kerry. He improves on each of the areas in which Kerry was a problem and to top things off he knows how to speak far better than Kerry. Listening to Kerry was painful, listening to Obama is inspiring.

Frankly the goal for Obama should be to win a super majority of the independents and 5% of the republicans. If he does that he wins easily. And those are two things he can easily do if he just keeps his message of unifying the country. McCain is having a horrible time unifying his party after months of being the nominee, he still loses 25% to other candidates. Obama should be able to steal at least 20% of those voters away from McCain or at least a good portion of those republicans who voted for him in the primaries.

Posted on May 7, 2008 9:36 PM

 Ciccina:

"Obama's Support Similar to Kerry's" was unexpectedly surreal.

The message seemed to be "don't worry - he's no worse off than Kerry."

But Kerry lost. Hello!!! Lost.

This year's "but Obama is so likeable!" was 2004's "but Kerry is a war hero!"

Buckle up, kids, and especially you, Shadar.

Its going to be a very bumpy ride.

Posted on May 7, 2008 11:40 PM

 jbhradio:

Bumpy ride is right.

Posted on May 8, 2008 2:31 PM

 jbhradio:

We don't need rookie for pres.
We cant aford to loose to the GOP.

Posted on May 8, 2008 2:42 PM