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POLL: Democracy Corps National


Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)

Generic Pres Ballot
Dem 53, Rep 41

Generic House Ballot
Dem 53, Rep 40
Dem Incumbent: Dem 69, Rep 26
Rep Incumbent: Rep 53, Dem 38

Full results here.

 

Comments
emcee:

The "Dem incumbent" and "Rep Incumbent" lines peaked my curiosity. So, I clicked through and found this explanation from the footnote on page 4 of the poll report:

"For each district, the incumbent's name was inserted, and a generic candidate ("the Democratic candidate" or "the Republican candidate") was inserted for the opposition."

That's an interesting question to ask, and I don't recall seeing formulation before. Anybody else?

Even without a baseline, 53 seems like a really really horrible number for "Rep Incumbent."

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Mark Blumenthal:

@emcee:

The question is unique, but was also used in 2006 by Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner for both their Democracy Corps surveys and those done in partnership with Republican Glenn Bolger for NPR. I wrote about it here.

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Joey Jo Jo:

Is calling the congressional matchup a generic house ballot accurate, then?

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emcee:

Mark,

That 2006 poll seems to be a slightly different thing. It concentrated on 50 particular "competitive" districts. This one appears to be national.

The 2006 poll showed that 40 competitive GOP incumbents were polling at 44%.

That's terrible. But this national 53% might be even worse. Assuming that the many unquestionably safe guys should inflate those numbers, the competitive race numbers must be horrible. Things get even more bleak (or, from my Dem perspective, great) if you consider that many of those weak "GOP incumbent" seats from that 2006 poll show up in the 2008 poll as "Dem incumbent."

-ahem-

One technical question - what did they do about seats that the incumbent wasn't running?

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