Democracy Corps (D)/
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)
7/21-24/08; 735 LV, 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 50, McCain 45
Obama 49, McCain 43, Barr 3, Nader 1
Generic: Dem 50, Rep 43
I think that most polls have confirmed what I already suspected: Barr and Nader are drawing most of their support from McCain. Those people who are thinking about voting for third-party candidates are for the most part former Hillary supporters who are still sore on her loss, but are not sure about voting for McCain neither. Let's see where they move as time goes by.
Posted on July 28, 2008 12:15 PM
Do the math... Total 95% preference either Obama or McCain.
With 3rd parties... total 92% preference either Obama or McCain. A difference of 3%. Obama loses 1, McCain loses 2.
Margin of error = 3.5%.
Therefore... NO confirmation of any kind.... as well as NO questions in this poll or others that I have seen on how many former Hillary supporters are voting 3rd party.
Still... Obama only gets a 1% advantage with 3rd party in the mix... statistically insignificant.
Posted on July 28, 2008 12:39 PM
To date Nader has filed papers to be on the ballot for 17 states.... of which the ones to watch are Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Indiana, and North Carolina.
Bob Barr is on the ballot for 31 states and his press release lists crucial general election battlegrounds as Florida, Colorado and New Mexico.
Posted on July 28, 2008 12:47 PM
According to the very Obama-friendly Fox News:
Without Nader and Barr on the ballot
Obama 41%, McCain 40%
With Nader and Barr on the ballot:
Obama 40%, McCain 37%, Nader 2%, Barr 1%
Posted on July 28, 2008 12:57 PM
According to NBC/Wall Street Journal:
Without Nader and Barr:
Obama 47%, McCain 41%
With Nader and Barr:
Obama 48%, McCain 35%, Nader 5%, Barr 2%
Posted on July 28, 2008 1:01 PM
According to CBS/New York Times:
Without Barr and Nader:
Obama 49%, McCain 46%
With Barr and Nader:
Obama 49%, McCain 39%, Nader 5%, Barr 2%
Posted on July 28, 2008 1:07 PM
From the Wall Street Journal:
Measuring the Nader Effect
But if Nader was a drain to the Democratic nominee in 2000, the latest poll suggests that this year his effect could come on the Republican side of the ballot, said Neil Newhouse and Peter Hart –respectively, the Republican and Democrat pollsters who conduct the WSJ/NBC News poll.
“If all [voters] want to do is vote against Obama…then maybe Nader is just as good a vehicle as McCain,”[Neil] Newhouse reasoned. “The anti-Obama vote is camping with John McCain now, but given other alternatives there’s a chance they could go somewhere else.”
McCain needs that his name and only his name and Obama's appear on the ballot, otherwise the "anybody but Obama vote" could go somewhere else.
Posted on July 28, 2008 1:19 PM
I agree, carl29. One poll might not mean squat, but the more that come out, the more this seems that the third parties take away from McCain.
But I don't think it all has to do with Hillary. I think some are Republicans who hate Obama and have to hold their breath while they vote for McCain. Give them a choice, and some will vote for Bob Barr.
I honestly don't think that those republicans who hate McCain will stomach the idea of Obama. Look, I think those McCain-hater republicans are the most neo-conservatives in the party, the ones more upset about the idea of someone like Obama getting in the white house, so I just don't see them quietly resigned to an Obama presidency. The only risk that McCain suffers from losing some of those neo-conservatives, evangelicals especifically, is to put Romney on the ticket. Some of those people believe that Mormonism is some sort of cult or sect, a false religion. That could make some of those extreme-evangelicals to sit this election out. Otherwise I honestly don't see them leaving McCain, but you never know.
Posted on July 28, 2008 1:32 PM
A lot of work on your part to refute nothing I said... I specifically was referring to this poll.
But to play YOUR game...
• The Fox Poll looks very similar. Obama lost 1 point, McCain lost 3%.. with Nader and Barr at 2% combined (You misstated the results which are Obama 40, McCain 37, Nader 2, Barr 0)...all within margin of error.
• Your erroneous statement about Hillary voters is not polled in any of your examples.NO Hillary effect polled.
• Several analysts did not believe that the election would actually show Nader and Barr taking away 7%... the main factor being that Nader and Barr (and their parties) just do not have the campaign funds for advertising.
• Obama should be also be worried about "anybody but Obama vote." McCain can take advantage of that.
Posted on July 28, 2008 1:42 PM
I just arguing about the fact that all polls show the same constant: McCain loses more support than Barack when Barr and Nader are on the ballot. How much it would be? We don't know for sure. However, poll after poll the trend is more and more clear, those Nader supporters look for shelter in McCain's camp without any other option.
Every politian has people voting against him or her. In Barack's case it is good news that those "foes" are thinking about "wasting" their vote on Nader or Barr, instead of uniting behind McCain, the only viable candidate running against him. I really hope that Nader and Barr get on every ballot, so McCain bleeds support.
Posted on July 28, 2008 1:53 PM
No votes are "wasted" ... what an undemocratic take on an election. Someone wins and others lose, and some vote on principle/to make a statement...but no votes are wasted. That kind of attitude leads to low voter turnout.
Posted on July 28, 2008 3:17 PM
I totally believe that they should make an statement. Please guys, if you don't like Obama or McCain, vote Barr or Nader.
Posted on July 28, 2008 3:25 PM
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