Pollster.com

I am not big on national polls(when are state polls going to come out), but allow me to make a few observations:

1. We are beginning to see a backlash against Palin. I do not even have enough time to list all the problems with her...

2. Obama is pushing the 50 percent mark. This development is more important than the margin of Obama's lead, because once someone is an Obama supporter, they generally remain an Obama supporter. In other words, once Obama reaches 50 percent, the election is over.

3. McCain must (re)take the lead by mid-September or he will definitely lose. I argue this prediction to be true because McCain is constrained to 83M of campaign spending per the FEC regulations on public financing. Obama is expected to drop 150-200M on the closing weeks of the campaign. Hence, if Obama is even or ahead of McCain in mid-September, the election will have a foregone conclusion.

4. If McCain hopes to win, he needs to get the convention into full gear and get back on message. If I were McCain, I would drop Palin, pick Pawlenty (or someone solid), and concentrate all me resources on the 5-7 red states that could easily swing towards Obama.

@Jacob S

Backlash against palin? This is Obama's convention bounce finally kicking in.....it was expected by most....no real surprise.

@Jacob S

Where do you see the "backlash"? I see the Palin nomination as a major distraction for the McCain campaign (putting out fires rather than putting out their message) but I don't see any polling yet. Isn't it a bit early to predict which way this will play?

The September polls you mention are the very ones that Jim Campbell has found over the years to have been a more reliable predictor of the November election than the polls immediately prior to the election.

Incidentally, here are the forecasts from other political scientists and prediction from Campbell, though he doesn't have a full set of data yet.

A question to everyone: which states might change with an energized conservative base? I'm thinking that Palin's hard conservative position (against abortion even in the case of rape or incest) will push many independents away from McCain (NH, for example). I wonder if Jewish support will firm up for Obama, too, considering the hard right cultural conservatism of Palin and her support in the past for Buchanan (FLA). It's good for McCain to have enthusiastic conservatives knocking on doors and giving money, though.

This is, perhaps, the beatdown of the year, nay century, of republican trolls like stillow/kiptin, etc.

Link provided at the end.

You want to talk QUALIFICATIONS???

1980 - 1984

Obama: B.A. in political science with a specialization in international relations from Columbia University.

Palin: Wasilla High School, captain of the state-champion basketball team. Miss Wasilla, runner-up in the Miss Alaska pageant, also Miss Congeniality, although that is now disputed.

Him: Ivy League degree.
Her: Tiara.

1985 - 1990

Obama: moved to Chicago; became a community organizer as director of the Developing Communities Project (DCP), a church-based community organization on Chicago's far South Side. During his three years as the DCP's director, its staff grew from 1 to 13 and its annual budget grew from $70,000 to $400,000, with accomplishments including helping set up a job training program, a college preparatory tutoring program, and a tenants' rights organization.

Moved to Boston to attend Harvard Law School. Selected as an editor and then elected president of the Harvard Law Review, a full-time volunteer position functioning as editor-in-chief and supervising the law review's staff of 80 editors.

Palin: Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism, with a minor in political science from the University of Idaho. Brief stint as a sports reporter for local Anchorage television stations; left to join her husband in commercial fishing.

Him: Sterling legal education.
Her: Sportscaster.

1991 - 1995

Obama: Graduated Magna Cum Laude from Harvard Law School; received contract and advance to write a book ("Dreams from my Father") as well as a fellowship at the University of Chicago Law School. Directed the Illinois Project Vote from April to October 1992, a voter registration drive with a staff of 10 and 700 volunteers that achieved its goal of registering 150,000 of 400,000 unregistered African Americans in the state, leading Crain's Chicago Business to name Obama to its 1993 list of "40 under Forty" powers to be. Appointed as a Lecturer in constitutional law at the University of Chicago. Joined Davis, Miner, Barnhill & Galland, a 12-attorney law firm specializing in civil rights litigation and neighborhood economic development. Active in several community organizations, usually as a board member.

Palin: member of the Alasaka Independence Party which advocates "Alaska First". Elected to Wasilla city council.

Him: Expert on our nation's fundamental legal principles.

Her: Plotted to leave the Union; thinks Pledge of Allegiance was written by our founding fathers, doesn't know what a Vice President does.

1996 - 2000

Obama: Promoted to Senior Lecturer in Constitutional Law at the University of Chicago Law School. Elected to the Illinois Senate. Sponsored more than 800 bills. In 2000, lost a Democratic primary run for the U.S. House of Representatives to four-term incumbent Bobby Rush by a margin of two to one.

Palin: elected as mayor of Wasilla (population 5,470), defeating the incumbent by a total of 616 votes to 413. Town budget, $8 million (3 millionths of the Federal budget), approximately 100 employees. Reduced property taxes but increased sales taxes. Fired the Wasilla police chief, citing a failure to support her administration. (He then sued Palin on the grounds that he was fired because he supported the campaign of Palin's opponent, but his suit was dismissed when the judge ruled that Palin had the right under state law to fire city employees, even for political reasons.) Hired a DC lobbyist to bring $27 million in earmarks to the city. Wasilla had zero debt when she entered office but she left it with indebtedness of over $22 million, including $15 million-plus for construction of a hockey center which was built on a piece of property that the city didn’t even have clear title to, a matter that is still in litigation. Attempted to ban books from the city library.

Him: Sponsored 800 bills.
Her: Swayed 616 voters.

2001 - 2004

Obama: Reelected in 2002 and became chairman of the Illinois Senate's Health and Human Services Committee.

Publicly spoke out against the invasion of Iraq BEFORE the congressional authorization in 2002, and then again before the actual invasion in 2003.

Wrote and delivered the keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention.

November 2004: elected to the US Senate, receiving over 3.5 million votes, more than 70% of total.

Palin: elected president of the Alaska Conference of Mayors. Unsuccessful bid for lieutenant governor, coming in second in a five-way race in the Republican primary, receiving 19,000 votes. Appointed to the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, served as chairman from 2003 to 2004 and also served as Ethics Supervisor. Resigned in protest over the "lack of ethics" of fellow Republican members. Exposed the state Republican Party's chairman, Randy Ruedrich, for doing party work on public time and working closely with a company he was supposed to be regulating. Director of Ted Stevens' 527 group.

Him: Demonstrated the wisdom to oppose the Iraq folly before it even began.

Her: Hasn't "really thought much about Iraq" - despite the fact that 17 Alaskans have died there

2005 to present

Obama: Sworn in as the fifth-ever African-American U.S. senator. Worked with Republican Senator Lugar to author and implement a program to locate and dismantle stray Russian WMD's. Designated by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid as the party's point man on ethics. Worked with Russ Feingold to pass a major ethics/lobbying reform bill. Cosponsored, with John McCain, the Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act. Called for increased fuel efficiency standards (3 percent every year for 15 years). Assignments on the Senate Committees for Foreign Relations, Veterans' Affairs, and Homeland Security. Chairman of the Senate's subcommittee on European Affairs. As a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, made official trips to Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. Waged a tremendous battle to become the Democratic presidential nominee. Currently manages 2,500 campaign employees and a budget of $40-$50 million/month.

Palin: 2005: Board member, Valley Hospital Association, which runs the Mat-Su Regional Medical Center in Wasilla.

Became youngest and first female Governor of Alaska, taking office in December, 2006. Received 114,600 votes. The population of Alaska is 683,478 and more than 50% of the state budget comes from oil revenues, not taxes as in other states. Gross State Product: $44 billion (including the oil revenue). Ranking 45 of 50.
Auctioned off the Governor's jet on eBay. Took on fellow-Republican Senator Ted Stevens to come clean about the federal investigation into his financial dealings. Promoted oil and natural gas resource development in Alaska. Helped pass a tax increase on oil company profits. Formed a sub-cabinet group of advisers to address climate change but does not accept that it is man-made. Objected to listing polar bears as an endangered species because it might hurt oil and gas development in the bears' habitat. Was for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it. However, Alaska kept the federal money. Denied her daughter was pregnant before she confirmed it. Supported abstinence-only education. Currently under a bipartisan investigation for abuse of power for dismissing Alaska's Public Safety Commissioner. Commander-in-Chief of the Alaska National Guard, but has played no role in national defense activities, even when they involve the Alaska National Guard. (The entire operation is under federal control, and the governor is not briefed on situations.)

Obtained her first passport in 2007 to perform visits to the Alaska National Guard in Kuwait and Germany. (Foreign experience so limited that a stopover in Ireland listed on her resume.)

Him: Impressive figure on the national stage who knows how Congress works and is engaged with foreign policy issues.

Her: small state governor for 21 months; "next to Russia", but that is just 1 of the 190 countries in the world she has never been to.

Conclusion: the word "executive" is not some kind of magic force multiplier when placed in front of the word "experience". Especially when that "executive experience" is of less than 700,000 people, the approximate size of Fort Worth, Texas.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/2/1613/27485/447/581295

today's gallup poll : Obama 50, McCain 42 ... in my opinion this is not just the convention bounce for Obama ... this is the first time that Obama reaches 50 ... but we should watch this for the next couple of weeks to see if Obama maintains this number ...

the link :

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109960/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Hits-50-First-Time.aspx

"The September polls you mention are the very ones that Jim Campbell has found over the years to have been a more reliable predictor of the November election than the polls immediately prior to the election."

this is an august poll.

Jacob - EXACTLY. The 50 percent threshold is "Game Over" for McCain. There is no way he is going to overcome that - it is mathematically impossible. Even if he gets ALL the remaining "undecideds", he still loses.

Never mind the enthusiasm factor, that will cause the landslide in November for Obama. (Same reason Hillary won New Hampshire by a good margin when the polls showed Obama up).

Looks who is back....the great "predictor" tyno, who has been wrong about everything.

Please, tyno, tell us what to expect in the next few months......

another interesting poll from gallup :

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109957/Obama-Gains-Among-Former-Clinton-Supporters.aspx

it appears that Obama is rapidly gaining among Clinton supporters ... is this due to the convention or is this due to McCain selection of Palin as a running mate ? I think that it is hard to tell as the events are too close to each other ... read the article and decide by yourself ...

Gallup daily should be taking into account the Palin VP pick. So far, it doesn't seem to be helping McCain much, unless the polls would have been Obama 55, McCain 40 and Palin is keeping it "Closer". :)

Tybo,
The mid-September polls that Jacob S mentioned in his comment are what I was referring to.

In addition to this poll, Gallup has just released its daily tracker--Obama 50%, McCain 42%. The most recent national polls:

Gallup Obama +8

Rasmussen Obama +6

ARG Obama +6

Hotline Obama +9

USA Today Obama +7

CBS Obama +8

CNN Obama +1

Zogby McCain +2 (w/o third-party candidates); Obama +1 (w/ third-party candidates)

While some of these results are within the margin of error, the concern for McCain has to be the fact that the estimates of the true figures consistently put Obama ahead.

On average, Obama has about a 6-point lead on McCain. McCain needs about a 6-point bounce from his truncated convention to pull even--certainly a possibility.

One note about the CNN poll showing Obama +1. The poll found Obama receiving only 5% of the Republican vote. According to this poll, if Obama performs worse against McCain than Kerry performed against Bush (who had the advantage of incumbency), then McCain can stay within 1-point of Obama.

These leads will fade away by this weekend.

Care to wager on that statement, "player"??

Yeah, I didn't think so.

As the MSNBC (Obama network) analysts pointed out. McCain has not lost, but rather Obama has made gains... aka convention bounce.

I understand that McCain will get some kind of bounce this week, but who is left to bounce with him? He's got 90% of Republicans and at this point most other people know what his platform is, plus he's been hammering Obama on the experience issue and is still down in the polls. I imagine that Palin's speech will have a load of viewers, but neither she nor McCain will come anywhere close to the 38 million who watched Obama.

The argument that Republicans are making is that Palin is a compelling figure who will blossom this week, and maybe that will happen, and that somehow McCain will be able to convince people that his brand of Republicanism is so different than Bush's, that people will flock to him. Does anyone here see that happening?

@Publius

The democratic party is full of traditional conservatives. McCain Palin will still make a play for them. They were also known as Reagan Democrats. Palin and McCain in there speeches this week will reach out to them using conservatism. Liberals as hisotry has shown us, tend to not get elected in the end. Conservatism is still a much more dominant and acceptable way of life....they will reach out to that wing of the Dem party....and shavenoughof those Reagan dems away.

Conservatism is not dominant, if anything it is in great decline because neoconservatives have changed traditional conservatism. This is why Regan and Bush Jr. aren't compared very much. Regan is a classical conservative and Bush is a neoconservative. Most real conservatives have only become a fringe part of the Republican Party as neoconservatives threw out fiscal conservatism out the window.

"As the MSNBC (Obama network) analysts pointed out. McCain has not lost, but rather Obama has made gains... aka convention bounce."

Yes, Obama has increased support amongst Democrats and Independents. The Democratic support is up to the Republican level of support for McCain. But Mccain was hoping to win over some of those, plus the Indy's.

Several of these polls most certainly include "post-Palin announcement" responses that come after McCain attempted to water down the effects of the DNC. They show McCain firming up his support amongst evangelicals...who might not have voted otherwise. But they likely don't include much of the impact of the revelations about Palin that have since emerged.

Sigh. Sounds like Obama kids are getting hysterical again (i.e. "Brutus").

Obama, according to Gallup, got no - zero - no bounce from choosing Biden. So no gain or a statistically insignificant 1 or 2 point drop or increase means the Palin pick was no worse (or better) than the Biden pick, at least in the short term.

But this won't stop Obamabots from going overboard and offending and then provoking key blocs of voters just like they offended and provoked half of the Democratic party. Statements like...

Obama: B.A. in political science with a specialization in international relations from Columbia University.

Palin: Wasilla High School, captain of the state-champion basketball team. Miss Wasilla, runner-up in the Miss Alaska pageant, also Miss Congeniality, although that is now disputed.

Him: Ivy League degree.
Her: Tiara.

[Obama:] Moved to Boston to attend Harvard Law School. Selected as an editor and then elected president of the Harvard Law Review, a full-time volunteer position functioning as editor-in-chief and supervising the law review's staff of 80 editors.

Palin: Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism, with a minor in political science from the University of Idaho. Brief stint as a sports reporter for local Anchorage television stations; left to join her husband in commercial fishing.

Him: Sterling legal education.
Her: Sportscaster.

... will appeal to no one outside of the elite. If blue collar or swing voters are faced with a choice between arrogant spoiled frat boys and "ordinary folks," my money's on "ordinary folks."

In all fairness, Palin has the highest approval for governor in the country so she is not as crazy as you people like to say. The Dems have had their convention, the Republicans have not. Once McCain officially is the nominee and the convention is over he will get a bounce. I bet the lead will go back to the usual +1 or 2 Obama. Take it easy we have not had one debate, its far from over.

Here's the lesson that McCain clearly missed. At this stage of an election, you make choices and deliver messages that appeal to the undecided and otherwise moveable voters. You should not be focusing on red meat for your base. This is why Obama chose Biden...he understood that you can't win an election off of your base alone. McCain on the otherhand was favoring Ridge or Lieberman, and while I think that Lieberman would have been a bad pick, Ridge would have been a potential game changer, but he caved to his base and chose Palin instead and now we see the results of that. There is no cross-over appeal to Palin outside of the very few Hillary holdouts that are left.

seems someone is spamming every thread with the same pro-obama (if no work history is a pro)
post

@brambster

I agree. I think the choice of Ridge would have been very dangerous for the Democrats. McCain chose a real game-changer instead, but not one who moves votes toward him.

au contraire, brambster.

McCain needs to motivate his base - including hesitant evangelicals who don't like/trust him - as well as persuade some independents. Palin solved the problem with the evangelical base. They love her. Her personal story has blue collar appeal; another plus. The "skeletons" in her closet are anything but. By national political standards - and by Obama standards - this woman is Elliot Ness.

If McCain can keep his chin up during this anti-honeymoon period, Palin will prove to be a very smart pick.

Obama choosing Biden was clearly a mistake. The man is accident-prone, and he lights nobody's fire. He undermines Obama's change message; few choices could say "same old, same old" more than Biden.

With regard to persuading undecideds, in one swoop McCain has put the experience issue back in play and sent the message that he's more committed to change and is more independent than Obama, who is in a liplock with the Democratic party.

au contraire, brambster.

McCain needs to motivate his base - including hesitant evangelicals who don't like/trust him - as well as persuade some independents. Palin solved the problem with the evangelical base. They love her. Her personal story has blue collar appeal; another plus. The "skeletons" in her closet are anything but. By national political standards - and by Obama standards - this woman is Elliot Ness.

If McCain can keep his chin up during this anti-honeymoon period, Palin will prove to be a very smart pick.

Obama choosing Biden was clearly a mistake. The man is accident-prone, and he lights nobody's fire. He undermines Obama's change message; few choices could say "same old, same old" more than Biden.

With regard to persuading undecideds, in one swoop McCain has put the experience issue back in play and sent the message that he's more committed to change and is more independent than Obama, who is in a liplock with the Democratic party.

Sorry about the double post. I blame Steve Jobs.

So far, I really don't see the plus that Palin has brougth to McCain's camp. Women, democratic leaning and independent, who were previously supporting Hillary seemed "offended," to say the least, about McCain "comparing" Palin to Hillary. There is nothing pro-woman, today's woman, in Palin's radical, neo-conservative social views. I think that Palin has become the "Clarence Thomas" for progressive/moderate women across America. I think that she is actually helping the Obama campaign bring those "unhappy" Hillary democrats back home.

Rasmussen has a poll on Palin: Finding? In matter of days, from Friday night to Monday night, Sara Palin's negatives went up 10%, from 26% to 36%. Women are less enthusiastic about Palin than men.

how is he independent cicina? he didnt do a maverick pick by picking lieberman or ridge. he went with a hardline conservative. he went with the picks that caters to evangelical base.they bent over and he puckered up and planted one right on their backside. her being a woman was an insulting attempt to manipulate women. this is an obvious gimmick. making a gamblers move does not make you a maverick. just makes you a gambler. of course i know the response to this will be that im making sexist attacks. you would be wrong. the two greates people i respect in my llife mother and my grandmother. one for doing a good job raising and the other for her strength and courage until she lost her battle with alzheimers last year. i loved my grandmother. she was pro-life and anti-gay too. but shee believed in what america could become becaused she lived throughout all.she it the fight for the rights of all people.the fight for the true american dream.so i respect her and through jer the plight women have endured and triumphed over, but that doesnt mean that i will just vote for a woman simple based on her being a woman,

@Ciccina

Republicans are widely polling at over 90% for McCain already. There's been a lot of discussion about how his base was already locked up and Obama's was not as he was generally polling 80% to 85% with Democrats. The trick here is that Democrats are never as unified as Republicans except in full on Democratic blowouts.

Do you really think that a traditional Republican that is an evangelical would possibly cross over to vote for Obama if Ridge was chosen? The politically active groups might scream, but this would pick up more votes than it would lose in the end. Ridge would greatly moderate the ticket.

Generally we hear about campaigns running to the center after the primaries. McCain did not do that, he ran the opposite way.

Obama didn't move much, but he certainly didn't move left with the pick of Biden. Regardless of who you would have preferred, Hillary's support is primarily with Democrats, and she polled terribly with independents and Republicans. Biden polls much better with these groups, especially with independents. He also polls best with the groups that Obama is weakest with such as older voters and white men. Biden was the best pick possible for Obama to make. He could have chosen to solidify his Democratic base with Hillary for sure, and could have probably won with her, but they have different styles, and Obama is better off governing with him choosing who he feels bests fits, and with whom best helps the ticket in the general election.

You really need to get over the primaries. Obama won fair and square and if you really believe in Hillary's message, you surely wouldn't vote for a ticket that tokenizes women and clearly doesn't share any of Hillary's most important views. This isn't a personality contest, this is a government and how you want that government to be run.