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POLL: Downs Center Indiana (4/28-30)


Downs Center/SurveyUSA
(Pres release, Gov release, Crosstabs)

Indiana
Clinton 52, Obama 45 (n=689)

n=1,274
Obama 48, McCain 47... Clinton 48, McCain 45

More information on the Downs Center/SurveyUSA methodology.

 

Comments
Dan:

Only in Indiana would 5% of respondents say that the #1 issue the governor should focus on is Daylight Savings Time. Incredible.

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killias2:

A Democrat winning Indiana? No wai!

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cinnamonape:

This is the only poll that actually is available thus far that shows erosion in Obama's poll numbers. People have been using isolated polls to say that, and it may be true, but until this poll it was't actually visible in a series of polls.
This polling period covers the dates of the intense media coverage regarding Wright's statements to the National Journalism club. But likely not Obama's response to them. Whether people will re-evaluate their positions after a day or two and consider Obama;s position similar to JFK's not approving of all of the Popes views (on birth control and divorce, for example)...and yet still attending Catholic Mass...is a matter we'll have to see.

But the poll does show some immediate reaction to the comments, or a reaction to other attacks made by Clinton that aren't apparent in earlier polls after the Penn debates and Primary.

Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided

Downs Center/SUSA 4/28-30/08 689 LV 52 45 3
Downs Center/SUSA 4/14-16/08 578 LV 45 50 5

SurveyUSA 4/25-27/08 628 LV 52 43 2
SurveyUSA 4/11-13/08 571 LV 55 39 3
SurveyUSA 3/29-31/08 530 LV 52 43 1

Research 2000 4/23-24/08 400 LV 47 48 5
Research 2000 3/31-4/2/08 400 LV 49 46 2

ARG 4/23-24/08 600 LV 50 45 5
ARG 4/2-3/08 600 LV 53 44 2

Howey-Gauge 4/23-24/08 600 LV 45 47 8
Howey-Gauge 2/17-18/08 500 LV 25 40 36

[This last poll is problematical since it covers a much larger range of time than the Wright comment and the initial survey appears to have not been "pushed", The undecideds in that poll shifted largely to Clinton.]

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jcpok:

Will AAs account for only 8% of Democratic primary voters. That seems really low. Anyone with some insight on this? Thanks.

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eternaltriangle:

A Dem win in Indiana is not that unrealistic (although obviously polls taken right now will be slanted because the Democrats are actively campaigning there, while the GOP isn't). Firstly, you have a relatively unpopular Republican incumbent governor.

Secondly, a recession could help swing socially conservative but poor voters into the Democrat camp. In particular, southern Indiana is the key swinger - note that in state elections (where issues like the economy, and yes, daylight savings, are more important) Southern Indiana is close, whereas Bush carried most counties there by 30 points (except Monroe County, which contains Indiana University, and fairly liberal Bloomington).

Thirdly, while Indiana has not gone for the Dems since 1964, look at when it has been close. In 1992 and 1996 Clinton lost by only 6 points. Carter lost by 7 in 1976. That is a swing of 13-14 points from the 20-point margins Republicans get there normally. Hoosiers swing hard in bad election years for the GOP, even though candidates never campaign here, or spend much in the way of resources.

Fourthly, Howard Dean's "winning guys with confederate flags on their pickup trucks" strategy in 2006 enabled a pickup of 3 congressional seats in Indiana (two of them in particularly conservative areas of the state). This shows that when resources are put in the state, it is possible to turn out wins for the Dems.

If McCain can be 2 points behind in Massachusetts, surely Clinton and Obama can be close in Indiana.

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