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POLL: EPIC/MRA Michigan


EPIC/MRA/
The Detroit News/WXYZ/WILX/WOOD/WJRT
7/13-15/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Michigan
Obama 43, McCain 41, Nader 3, Barr 2

 

Comments
Tybo:

why would a 2 point lead, within the margin of error , be a dark blue state on the electorial map?

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Oranges with Oranges, Apples with Apples. So, the previous Detroit News' poll had McCain leading Obama 44% vs. 40%. Now it is Obama leading McCain 43% vs. 41%. This pollster has found some movement in favor of Obama; however, the numbers still remarkably close. This is going to be a fight with capitla F.

I think this is the key to win this state, in most of the others to be quite honest:
The very well valued Independent voters. In the previous poll McCain was leading Obama among independents 41% vs. 28%. Now in this poll Obama has gained some ground; although still trailing McCain, Obama has narrowed the gap at 4%. Those independents are like gold!!

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m finesod:

If it were Hillary Clinton vs McCain, Hillary would win by 20 points. But, Michigan feels disinfranchised by Obama for not being counted in the primary. Now, Michigan is a real swing state. This is a toss of the cin state, and probably will determine our next President.

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Undecided:

Notably, Democrats are not that popular in this state at this time. The Democratic primary debacle combined with the tanking economy under a Democratic governor (who they blame more than Bush).


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axt113:

This poll shows the race closer than other polls, likely an outlier, Michigan will be easy Obama territory thanks to the economy and McCain supporting NAFTA

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Undecided:

Obama now supports NAFTA. Since the Democratic primary ended, Obama has become a free marketer, and he stated that his previous stance on NAFTA was 'overheated rhetoric' of a primary campaign.

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Paul:

The May EPIC-MRA for Michigan had McCain +4 so this is a 6 point turnaround in favor of Obama. 538 has Obama snapshot and projection at +2 and leaning DEM. RCP has Obama +6.3 and leaning DEM. Pollster.com has Obama +8.5 and solid DEM.

I have Michigan as an absolute must win state as he needs all Kerry states as a base. A loss in Michigan would mean Obama would have to win Ohio. A loss in Michigan would also prove a bad omen in other conparable states as well.

Obama has no choice but to make a major investment in Michigan. 538 shows Michigan the second most important state in the election (Ohio is the most important), but the seventh best in return of investment which shows how expensive a campaign in Michigan will be. In the final analysis, neither candidate will be able to make a major investment in every one of the key battleground states --- at some point it will become obvious where each candidate is placing their high bet chips.

McCain can force Obama's hand in Michigan by showing up in Michigan frequently early on. If he can not maintain an early run and ends up losing, he will at least have diverted Obama's attention from other states like Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

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