Pollster.com

Commissioned by the Florida Chamber of Commerce; conducted by a Republican pollster.

Does not matter. A poll is a poll. Legitimate to compare methodology but not necessarily those who conducted the poll. Otherwise we should also ignore all the Daily Kos polls.

What is relevant is that this poll was conducted July 20-28 during the Obama overseas adventure.

Quinipiac has BO ahead by 2. I can't access either's cross tabs. Can someone get a look and do some quick analysis

Just hit me - Why on Earth would a Chamber of Congress commission a poll?

Note also that this poll is REGISTERED voters and Quinnipiac is LIKELY voters. Also that Q has only 7% undecided compared to 15% for this poll.

1magine -

Who cares? It is Florida - land of jeb bush and katherine harris stealing elections for repubs, it's not really that surprising....

I'm sure they will purge the voter rolls again and intimidate AAs from voting like they did in 2000.

- In other news, I just did a poll, and Obama is up 100% over mccain. Yup, must be true!

Sure it matters. The Florida Chamber of Commerce conducted a poll though its Political Action Committee as part of a mission to "aggressively champion pro-business candidates." That's not what Gallup or Rasmussen does; all polls do not have inherently identical credibility. You are perfectly entitled to discount this poll (and Dailykos's), and it's no accident that 1magine can't find the crosstabs.

Note also that this poll is REGISTERED voters and Quinnipiac is LIKELY voters. Also that Q has only 7% undecided compared to 15% for this poll.

The National Council on Public Polls says:

"...reporting on a survey by a special-interest group is tricky. For example, an environmental group trumpets a poll saying the American people support strong measures to protect the environment. That may be true, but the poll was conducted for a group with definite views. That may have swayed the question wording, the timing of the poll, the group interviewed and the order of the questions. You should carefully examine the poll to be certain that it accurately reflects public opinion and does not simply push a single viewpoint."

The Florida Chamber hasn't released ANY of the information needed to make a judgment on these variables, not even the simple text of the presidential question.

Jeff - Thanks for the info. OK so no crosstabs, no Pres question or order of questions.

Maybe the question went a little something like - If the election were held today would you vote for BO who want to eat your first born male child or JM who loves America?

I will accord it appropriate weight. I trust that Marc and others will do the same.

NOTE: 538 weights Quinipiac in Fl. 1.38 and does not even include this poll.

BO is ahead in an LV poll and JM is ahead in an RV poll? Holy crap, what is going on in FL?!? Where are those cross-tabs? Something must be seriously out of whack, as that defies all logic.

Well, it looks like it's been incorporated into the trend lines for the FL chart at this site. Nate Silver has dismissed it over at fivethirtyeight.com, and even Real Clear Politics doesn't seem to be using it for now. Oddly enough it's Nate that has McCain ahead by the widest margin at the moment, even without the Chamber poll.

poll strategy for obama:
indiana looks a bit touch and go...so tease with evan bayh today and tomorrow as possible vp.

michigan looks less sure and florida is a toss up...so appease those states by that 'silly
gimmick' (obama's famous over used put down) of seating delegates with full votes now he's got the nomination locked up courtesy of half votes from those self same delegates. talk about dizzying pirouettes.

we're soooo impressed!

TEXAS..UH OH and ohio is still an annoyance. what to do....let's tease them to. dangle something, but what???

hey, let's back track completely and drill that
slippery crude and call it a "compromise".

not enough? let's hand out lower middle class drugs FREE!! ie 1000 buck rebate checks and maybe the impoverished white collar will like you better. what a mind.

tell me though all you obamites, why exactly is this NOT A GIMMICK when repealing the gas tax for the summer months was??

ANSWER: if it comes from obama it's the real thing, dude. when it comes from anyone else - it's a cheap ploy.

now let's see how dumb america really is. obama is counting on low IQ's to bring him through. he may be right. darn...

Does that mean you are voting for him now?

Thanks.

Poor retardlicans, after 8 years of a chimp as president, they have the chutzpah to go on boards and accuse dems of catering to the retard vote. How do you think bush got in twice????

All the retards are on the republican side.

i never called anyone 'retard' you did!!!
perhaps you misread the entry.

i suggested that obama's tactics are deft and for fear of being 'found out' he is betting on the general electorate's lack of nuance to pick up on his antics.

if he paints mccain as scaring the electorate he can then deflect the attention of less savvy voters away from his bribes. in fact, he is counting on their 'density' to grin in awe and wide eyed wonder.

oh, and try to respond without the usual silly gimmicky put downs. just answer with intelligent responses.

i am merely pointing out his tactics NOT YOURS!!!

"is counting on low IQ's"

Hmm, okay, boskop, what did you mean by that? Your typical Bush voter who thinks Saddam was responsible for 9/11, and that evolution is some crazy liberal conspiracy?

Do NOT I repeat do not have a battle of wits with boskop. It is like pushing over a toddler. Impolite, unnecessary and a little unnerving.

New FL poll over at SUSA:
McCain 50%, Obama 44%