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POLL: Fox National


FOX News/
Opinion Dynamics
(story, results)

National
Obama 45, McCain 41
Obama 42, McCain 39, Nader 4, Barr 2
Generic: Democrat 42, Republican 35
Obama/Clinton 48, McCain/Romney 41

 

Comments
Andrew_in_California:

Haha. Funny.

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carl29:

Since I use the same scale to measure things.
Current Fox poll vs. Previous Fox poll:

Obama 45%, McCain 41%, 14% und. 06/17 - 06/18 vs.
Obama 43%, McCain 46%, 11% und. 04/28 - 04/29

So, Obama is up by 2% and McCain somehow managed to lose 5%.

Why McCain lost 5%? I've said before that my gut feeling has been that McCain's numbers were inflated by Hillary supporters choosing him over Obama out of anger. Once things cool off a little bit the majority of those Hillary supporters will move from McCain to undecided and then to Obama. As we can see, undecided have grown since the previous Fox polls and democrats voting for McCain has decreased dramatically. In the previous poll, McCain was getting 22% of democrats, but now he is getting 10% of it.

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Nickberry:

In political terms, this is a "dead heat" with 14% undecided.

Take time to read the poll narrative. For example.... Overall, 65 percent of Americans say they would be extremely, very or somewhat proud to have Obama as president. For McCain, 66 percent say so. And four in 10 Americans say they will be proud regardless of which candidate wins.

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carl29:

I love the way Fox came about that question:
A similar number would be proud to have McCain, who would be the first Vietnam vet president. Let's not talk about McCain being the oldest president in US history but rather the first Vietnam Veteran. See?

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Mike_in_CA:

from the crosstabs, I found this very interesting:

Of Clinton supporters, 68% support Obama (up from 47% last time), 17% support McCain and 15% are undecided.

Adding Clinton to the ticket bumps support for Obama from her supporters up 14% to 82%. However, looking deeper, McCain's support from Clinton supporters only drops 5%, meaning that the other 9% comes from current undecideds!

Why is this important: It means that adding Clinton to the ticket doesnt really draw all that much support away from McCain, but rather pulls in the yet still undecideds. This is why I don't think she'll be added to the ticket -- with enough time and campaigning Obama can pull in those undecideds on his own with Hillary simply campaigning for him, not necessarily on the ticket.

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Actually, I think G. W. Bush qualifies as a Vietnam veteran, so McCain would be the second Vietnam vet president. He would be the first Vietnam POW president, though.

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Nickberry:

Bush was in the Guard during the Vietnam War, but he never served (or set foot) in Vietnam... so I do not think that he is a "Vietnam Veteran." Gore and Kerry both served in Vietnam, but unfortunately they lost their Presidential bids.


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Nickberry:

In response to carl29... So you have something against the first Vietnam vet becoming President????

And if you had paid attention to the poll results.... "When you think about voting for president in November, which troubles you more -- John McCain's advanced age and number of years in Washington or Obama's relative youth and inexperience?" More people were worried about Obama's youth.

So apparently "age" was "talked about." So you have something against "authentic experience?"

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carl29:

Good mruth, tell Fox. I think they want to make McCain's candidacy as historical as Obama's, you know one first vs. the other first. However, reality is that McCain's "first" makes the the campaign a little uncomfortable, there is nothing "exciting" about being the oldest president in History. I don't think that having being a POW is "bad," the problem for most people is that he is a 72 year-old POW. It is not the POW part; it's the 72 year-old part.

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marctx:

I hope and doubt Hillary or Bill will do more than a handful of appearances for O'Carter. He's on his own to get those undecideds. It's kinda sad that Obama flip-flopped on campaign finance so he can take away hard earned dollars from poor and middle class Americans that can really use the money with these high gas prices. He wants to raise hundreds of millions of dollars to attempt to buy this election like he tried to do in PA, OH, TX....etc. If he succeeds he is just going to raise taxes on oil companies that are going to pass the cost back to those same poor Americans that are broke from giving to Obama.

McCain 2008, Hillary 2012
Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less
join the movement @ http://www.americansolutions.com/
75,000 new petition signatures today! Wow!


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carl29:

Dear marctx: "...he is just going to raise taxes on oil companies..." I don't know what you mean by this statement, but if you are talking about the "windfall profit tax." I am sorry to tell you that Obama is not alone in this. In fact the first person to bring this up was Hillary, yeap!, the same person you want for president in 2012.

HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT, 4/28/2008
Hillary is unveiling her aggressive plan to address the problem of skyrocketing gas prices. Hillary's plan includes:
Hillary will impose a windfall profits tax on oil companies... "taking away oil company profits through a windfall profits tax."

My dear marctx, sorry to confront you with reality, Obama and Hillary's policies very, very alike. So, if you don't like Obama's policies, chances are you will be also dispointed with Hillary's as well. Remember, Obama and Hillary are democrats. McCain is republican.

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Uri:

@carl29: You know, I am sure that there are a lot of people who would be proud to see voters in the country without prejudice for any reason, INCLUDING AGE. I love how you Obama supporters are fawning over your candidate's race, while repeatedly using age based slurs. I doubt that one day you would be black (I know, you're latino), but you will probably be old, and have people treat you as an "inheritance in waiting".

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carl29:

Dear Uri: I am not advocating again McCain's policies because of his age. However, there is something factual to that, How does it come that age is relevant when you apply for a job, but is not relevant if you are running for president? Do you know of someone who applies for a Federal Job at the age of 72 and got hired?

I don't think that there is any discrimination involved in it. It is accepting a simple fact, when people become very old it is more difficult for them to work. People forget things, get confused and get sick more frequently. Life expectancy in the US for males is 75.15 years. This is just facts. I'm not saying that McSame is about to leave this world but the reality is that age has some limitations, either way, too young or too old.

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Nickberry:

Regarding Hillary's proposal for windfall profit tax... It was directly aimed at offsetting her no federal gas tax holiday.

Obama decision not to use public funding is no surprise, but it does not fit in with his "message" and McCain is reminding everyone of that. The other reality is that Obama can raise lots of money, but the DNC is really struggling... which will hurt all national Democratic races. (Whereas, the RNC is doing quite well outraising the DNC by 2 to 1.) The Obama campaign has pretty well taken over the DNC and even moved them to Chicago. Will the DNC underfund Congressional seats to throw everything at electing the "first" black man as President? I sure hope not.

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Nickberry:

In my mind, 72 years is not that old. Especially, when one considers that McCain's 96-year old mother (and her twin sister) are still alive, healthy, active, and independent.

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Andrew_in_California:

Having a Y chromosome (on average men have a shorter life span) and the fact that he just generally does not look healthy makes him look old and may give him an uncharismatic "Nixon" effect.

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carl29:

I didn't say that McCain was about leaving this world. I said that the fact that he is 72 yearls old can be something to consider for some people. Being president requires a lot of energy and work. As Hillary used to say, it's the hardest job in the world. So, why not taking into account the person's physical and mental state? Ah, and McCain has some temper problems, very well known.

P.S: I am always impressed about how much and how fast the president in this country age while in office. I don't want to know how much stress and pressure those guys go through.

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Uri:

@carl29: Considering what McCain has been through, it is not surprising that he looks old. His face is actually scarred in a way that makes him look older.

I don't buy the argument that older people are necessarily out of it. I have known university professors who were completely clear at much older ages and had no problems.

Other countries have leaders that perform well at older ages. Hosni Mubarak of Egypt is 80. Former Israeli PM Ariel Sharon of Israel was 78 when he had his stroke (Cardiovascula diseases can strike at any age), and their president (Peres) is 85.

As I've stated before, if I was picking someone for a job, I'd never pick the one who had the audacity to write a memoir at 29.

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carl29:

Dear Uri: Good that you brought up the example of professors. As you know I'm married to a college professor, Math Phd, and let me tell you, it's no forever. Those professors that you are talking about are officially retired, but give 1 or 2 classes, as a sort of adjunt faculty, part-time. My husband's next door officemate, an Art professor, is retiring, today was his last day on campus, his age? 62 years old. why is he retiring? tired, exhausted to be honest.

Professor go through papers all the time, grade papers, prepare classes, go to meetings, are part of comittees. Before marrying my husband, I'd never imagined how much work a professor has. Students complain but they don't know how much work the professor has done to put together a lecture, to grade papers, to draft tests. And keep in mind that my husband teaches Math. You don't want to know about English teachers and grading essay after essay.

Uri, I don't say that every person should take this or that into account when voting for McCain or Obama. I just said that McCain's age is indeed a legitimate issue that some of us have each and every right to factor in.

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Mike_in_CA:

@Uri, I know it's just a stupid little thing, but Barack was actually 34 when he wrote his memoir. At that point he had lived in Hawaii, Indonesia, Los Angeles, New York, Chicago and Boston. Certainly that's enough experience to write a memoir on? Yeesh, give the guy a break. You can rag him for a lot of things, but at least don't rag his life. He's done a lot of sh*t.

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Mike_in_CA:

@Uri, I know it's just a stupid little thing, but Barack was actually 34 when he wrote his memoir. At that point he had lived in Hawaii, Indonesia, Los Angeles, New York, Chicago and Boston. Certainly that's enough experience to write a memoir on? Yeesh, give the guy a break. You can rag him for a lot of things, but at least don't rag his life. He's one a lot of sh*t.

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Uri:

@Mike_in_CA: It was published when Barack was 34 (in 1995), but my understanding was that he started writing in 1989 though the bulk was collected and edited in 1994.

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Uri:

@carl29: My problem is not with it being a legitimate issue or not, my problem is that you (and others on the Obama camp) have consistently used age-related slurs.

As for professors, some retire early (one of the benefits of tenure) and barely do crap. I am in a scientific department in a top-10 school and can tell you that many of our very productive professors are beyond McCain's age and doing well. True, many of them have left, but quite a few stayed and are still doing better work than some of our younger professors.

My own father is still very productive in his field and he's McCain's age, and he has to run around a lot for his research.

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carl29:

For me McCain's age is an issue. About the place where you work, good that people of that age feel OK about working at such age. My experience with my husband here at Florida International Univesity is that 1)Professors work very hard doing everything related to their classes, giving office hours, comitees, and research 2)the vast majority of them retire around 65 years, the latest, because some retire in their mid-50's, thanks to many years of hard work with good pay, good retirement accounts, and 401K 3)I don't know any professor of McCain's age that still a full-time. I just don't know of any here at FIU. Thank god professors at FIU not only get the salary they deserve but also the state of Florida gave them a good retirement account that professors can enhance by contributing to 401K retirement. For the most part, they have a good life once retired. They really deserve it.

P.S: I would never categorize as "crap" what professors do. I always remember that I am an educated person thanks to so many professors that invested their time to helping me whenever I needed it. To me my professors are like second moms and dads. I would never use such word to be honest.

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hardheadedliberal:

@Uri:

I am not concerned that McCain is 71 almost 72. I am concerned that he never knew much about any policy issues other than national security and he constantly gets confused about national security issues (Sunni, Shi'a, "terrorists," etc.).

I am also concerned that McCain vehemently denies making statements that he made within the past few days, and that he does this repeatedly. Either his short-term memory is shot (which is not a good sign) or he thinks that in this age of YouTube he can still bluff and bully reporters away from pointing out his flip-flops (bullying is not a good sign, either).


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Nickberry:

FYI... Obama has himself gotten "confused" over terms... As in often confusing Iran and Iraq, directly stating that Arab translators are needed in Afghanistan (FACT: They do not speak Arabic.), calling al-Maliki "President" of Iraq (FACT: al-Maliki is Prime Minister and Talabani is the President.) Someone even has a website of Obama's "mis-speaks"... So what is Obama's excuse?

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carl29:

It is not the same to say that Bush always mispronounces things, that to say that Bush is obviously confused. Believe me, Bush is totally aware that he is screwing us up. I have always suspect that Bush is not one of the smartest presidents in US history; however, he doesn't look "confused" to me.

I noticed McCain's confusion when Lieberman had to correct him with Iran training Alqueida or something like that. I mean, foreign policy is suposse to be McCain strong suit. Don't take it from me, but Pat Buchannan said the exact same thing, McCain is got to be very careful about getting confused in public because the burden is own him to prove that he is stable and capable enough to be president at 72.

To me it is not only that he is to old to be president. But he also doesn't understand and doesn't have any plans for domestic issues, mainly the economy and health care. I can't understand why he never showed any interest in learning about these issues while in the senate for more than 20 years. McSame himself admitted to a supporter at one of the town hall meetings that he doesn't understand the economy, that everything he had read about it was Greenspan's book.

One of the things that I dislike the most about McCain is his lack of interest on educating himself on those issues that present a challenge for him. Now, remember that studying hasn't been one of McCains strong suit, the guy graduated at the bottom of his class. I really like people who are interested in learning about those things that they don't know or understand yet. To me he doesn't have the kind of drive I want in a president or a team mate for that matter.

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Nickberry:

Go ahead... keep picking on McCain as being TOO old. But what is the explanation for the multiple verbal blunders by Obama?

1. Iran vs. Iraq when questioning Petraeus.
2. Assuming that the language of Afghanistan is Arabic.
3. Addressing al-Maliki (Prime Minister of Iraq) as "President." The President of Iraq is in fact Talibani.
4. Blaming the current Bush administration for the election of Chavez in Venezuela, who was elected in 1998 (Clinton administration.)
5. Having ZERO knowledge about the Hanford nuclear clean up when questioned in Oregon.
6. My comedic favorite... assuming people hunted ducks with six-shooters.
7. And much much more.

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Nickberry:

Go ahead... keep picking on McCain as being TOO old. But what is the explanation for the multiple verbal blunders by Obama?

1. Iran vs. Iraq when questioning Petraeus.
2. Assuming that the language of Afghanistan is Arabic.
3. Addressing al-Maliki (Prime Minister of Iraq) as "President." The President of Iraq is in fact Talibani.
4. Blaming the current Bush administration for the election of Chavez in Venezuela, who was elected in 1998 (Clinton administration.)
5. Having ZERO knowledge about the Hanford nuclear clean up when questioned in Oregon.
6. Claiming his uncle freed Auschwitz.
7. Claiming the Selma marches brought his parents together, when in fact Obama was born before those dates.
8. My comedic favorite... assuming people hunted ducks with six-shooters.
9. And much much more.

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carl29:

If mispeaking disqualifies someone from running for office, the Clintons, Bill and Hillary, would have never attempted to go back to the White House. Now, just in the same way I made my decision about Hillary, I made my decision about McSame. You Nickberry are totally entitle to support your candidate as I am to do so with mine. To me McSame just doesn't have the age, the drive, the temper to be president, and that's the reason I'm not supporting him. This is a democracy and I picked my candidate. You picked yours, and believe me, that's fine with me.

Actually, I don't think that anybody has to justify why he or she is supporting X or Y candidate. People are free to support a candidate for whatever reason pleases them, and again, that's just fine with me. I do what I can to support my candidate but I don't impose my candidate on anybody. During the primaries I donated money to the Obama campaign, in addition to making phone calls, for the first time in my life. Before Barack I had never comtemplated the idea of giving money to a politian or making phone calls to perfect strangers, but my commitment for the campaign made it easier.

Nickberry, I really recomend you to do whatever you can to help your candidate win, donate, make phone calls, go to your local campaign headquaters. For some reason I suspect that the big majority of the pleople in this forum have a firm opinion about the candidates, so I really don't think you or I are going to change that many minds. We are pretty much political junkies, but saddly we are not pivotal in elections since candidates win by getting the majority of votes from the more "average" americans. Those americans who you can reach in your phone calls, those americans who are going to watch your candidate's TV ads, paid with your contributions, those americans who are going to receive mail from your candidate, paid with your contributions. Hey! Get involved!

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Which voters care about McCain's age? I ma in my 40s and didn't consider it an issue. I have supported McCain in the past (registering as a Republican in 2000 to vote for him in the primaries against Bush).

It was my parents (76 and 81) and random older people on the streets who noticed my Obama. button who have said that McCain is too old, citing issues like adaptability, recall, and energy level as capabilities that diminish markedly when you're in your 70s. All these people seemed very sharp to me, but they saw something that I didn't.

I genuinely don't know how to explain McCain's current confusion about Sunnis in Iraq. He repeated the statement that Sunnis were allied with Iran. Was this ignorance, age-based confusion, or a feeling that it is not important to make a distinction between these historic enemies? My guess is the third option--a feeling that "Muslim Schmuslim," they're all the same in the end and that understanding the details of regional politics is not important.

McCain lost my support around 2004, when I heard him talk about the Iraq War like a football coach talks about the importance of avoiding losses to maintain a winning record. McCain's conviction that we must stay in Iraq stems from the desire to protect our military from the psychological effects of taking a loss. This is not the cold, strategic thinking we need to advance American interests around the globe. But I don't know whether to attribute McCain's inflexibility and strategic myopia to his age or his personality. I grew up amongst fighter pilots, though, and he thinks like a fighter pilot--impulsive, quick-tempered, unnecessarily combative, courageous to the point of stupidity, and focused on winning a dogfight even at the expense of winning the war. I think he has always been this way, and I thought his impulsiveness was charming in a way. The Iraq War changed my mind about him: we someone much more deliberative now.

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