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POLL: Gallup Daily Tracking


Gallup Poll

National 3/3 - 3/5
Clinton 48, Obama 44

Also:
State of the Election After Tuesday’s Voting
Gallup Daily: 84% of Americans Say Economy Getting Worse

 

Comments
Michigan Wolverine:

Hillary's delivery of that knock-out punch to Obama, just when she was down and everyone counted her out, is powerful imagery. All around me in Michigan, people are switching from Obama to Hillary, and rooting for the underdog. It's like Rockey or Cinderalla Man, and, in Michigan, the economy is so down we need a champion.

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Cade:

Funny, I see many right wingers coming from every angle to beat her down - not only in Ohio but Florida as well.

Any "honest" Republican will tell you they pray at night that Hillary becomes the nominee. They just can't wait to go off on her.


What makes you think that Ohio Dems won't vote for Obama in November?

You have absolutely NO IDEA how Obama would do in Florida - although you are about to find out. He did beat Hillary pretty badly in Georgia.

No chance Crist lets Florida go blue in November - especially if he is the VP. So now, it boils down to - Can Hillary win Ohio? My guess is NO. Especially after the latest hypocrisy out of her camp:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/06/clinton-campaign-denies-canadian-report-on-nafta-comments/

I bet a lot of Ohioans want their vote back!!


Obama, on the otherhand, doesn't have to depend on Ohio. He can turn Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, North and South Carolina, perhaps even Georgia from RED to BLUE. Hillary has a snowball's chance in hell of doing that.


You know this is true. Don't let your partisan bias blind your common sense. IF Hillary somehow steals the nomination you know she will lose. AAs and the youth vote WILL go to McCain and the conservatives will come out of the woodwork. Her only hope is that Obama and McCain are caught in a bathroom stall with Larry Craig.

Because Obama sure ain't making her his VP.

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Dazed and Confused:

Cade:

Obama ain't making anyone his VP.

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Andrew S. in California:

If that was Hillary's knock-out punch I certainly don't want her president. 12ish delegate chip away at Obama's lead? Its like she won 100% of the delegates from Vermont or something. A comeback is only as good as how early you start it. Unfortunately for Hillary the finish line is 10 states away and it would take an asteroid hitting Barak Obama to make Hillary the nominee.

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Suzie Perlstein:

According to Florida Voters, OBAMA RAN CAMPAIGN ADS FOR THE 30 DAYS BEFORE THE PRIMARY ON CABLE.

I know this is true, and it was a clear violation of the rules, not to mention SLEEZY.
He claimed they were national ads, and did not think they "counted" as campaigning. ANOTHER LIE: first Rezko, then NATO, and this guy has ONE speech, and nothing else.
MSNBC, a basic 527 for Obama, ran a story yesterday about Axelrod bragging that the Jimmy Smits character was supposed to be Obama. RIGHT. So why was he not black? Oh but what was the point of the story?
Obama GIVES THE SPPECH WROTE FOR THE TV SHOW FOR SMITZ TO GIVE. It's not even his speech! IT WAS WRITTEN FOR A TV SHOW!!!
How can anyone take this shallow man seriously?

Obama is a spoiled brat, he can't take one ad about experience? He has missed over 200 votes in the Senate and hasn't held one meeting on NATO, which is really stupid because he may have learned something.
He thinks he is above the law. This is not a man who deserves to hold public office, much less be President.
The only good thing about Clinton loosing would be watching Obama and Michelle get their huge ego's tanked.

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NOT-DHinMI:

The finish line is not who gets the most PDs. Neither can get to 2025.

SDs are under no obligation to follow. They can lead. She'll likely have the popular vote edge after PA. When FL and MI revote, she'll have almost as many PDs and a million more votes than he.

Finish line includes MI and FL revoting AS(S?) in CA

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Andrew S. in California:

Are you suggesting that despite Obama's lead in PD that the SD are going to switch over to Hillary? If so I'd like to know how this works despite Howard Dean saying that FL and MI are not getting another primary to conduct.

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Andrew S. in California:

I stopped reading that timesonline article at the point the author was saying that Hillary is more likely to win because of her obvious advantage of being a woman.

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ca-ind:

Hey Cade,
Keep the Obama Kool-Aid drink down. If u think Obama can win SC & IA & GA for Dems. you are delusional.
That is the probblem with u morons. You dopes can't think stright.
On the other hand he can't win OH & PA in Nov. will certainly lose.
He is a WIMP that can't take punches from Hillary and is going to fight Repulicans & Terrorists. LOL

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Anonymous:

CAind, you're right. He's got a glass jaw. One week of negative campaigning sunk him like he was wearing cement boots

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A.J.:

On the other hand, you ca-ind certainly can spell STRIGHT

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Mike:

Clinton Win In Ohio is just made her stand in this election until the end, but I don't this will give her any huge advantage over Obama to win the presidential nomination...
business cards

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Mike in CA:

You all make me laugh. This is one of the funniest threads yet this season.

A few goodies:

From Suzie: "MSNBC, a basic 527 for Obama"

From ca-ind: "If u think Obama can win SC & IA & GA for Dems. you are delusional."
--- Check out the latest SUSA state head-to-head matchups. Get back to me on whether you think Obama can turn red states to blue. A win in ND, Nebraska, CO and VA! And 4 points in Alaska! Thats MOE stuff. Wow. No way this guy can turns states. No way. Clinton, however, performs much better -- she can't even pull ahead in OR, WA, MI (where she supposedly "won" the primary) or NH. Heck, she pulls the exact same percentage in OH as Obama.

Ok, enough snark.

Thanks for a good laugh guys!

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MacMo:

The reason why Crist and his cronies are calling for FL delegates to count is b4 they know they can beat Billary easily.

Now read Obama works at the senate:

As a member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs, Obama passed legislation to improve care and slash red tape for our wounded warriors recovering at places like Walter Reed. He passed laws to help homeless veterans and offered an innovative solution to prevent at-risk veterans from falling into homelessness. Obama led a bipartisan effort in the Senate to try to halt the military's unfair practice of discharging service members for having a service-connected psychological injury.

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tony:

MacMo - have you considered how sexist the term "Billary" is? Micrack Obama would be a nasty term as well.

Also - Crist is a very moderate republican. He moved to get rid of Florida's felony disenfranchisement rule -- even though it would mean more black men could vote and help the Democrats. He has taken other liberal positions as well. Florida is a purple state, so the fact that he is doing this is not a shock. He has a state to govern, and 1.7 million Dems voted. That's why he is concerned.

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Marcello:

Michigan Wolverine, you're right about one thing: the economy in Michigan is down. But HRC's "more of the same" policies aren't going to fix it. I'm a Michigan resident and I'm sticking with Obama's campaign of hope, not Clinton's campaign of fear.

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tom brady:

Cade - did I read you correctly? Are you saying that African-Americans are going to vote McCain if Hillary wins the nomination? Do you know the last time a plurality of African-Americans supported the Republican candidate in a presidential election?

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Eric:

Since this website promotes the math and statistics behind I think our arguments should focus on what the math says:

Survey USA was sited above so lets go with their math first. In a McCain vs Obama poll 46%, 46%. And in a McCain vs Hilary Poll, 46%, 48%. Note that this does give Hillary credibility in the sense that she would fare just as well (if not better) as Obama in a general election. However note that neither percent totals add to 100% and that those numbers are so close, it is hard to know what will happen in a general election.

In addition, presidents are elected based on electoral votes. Survey USA also calculated the electoral votes each candidate would win. They put Obama 4 votes ahead of Hillary but again this is one pollster and using Feb/March data.

Note that before OH and TX the exit polls were showing Obama tended to win over more independents. So I think when Obama says he "wins over more independents" he certainly has a valid argument. But when Hillary says she can beat John McCain she certainly has just as much credibility.

Now for the delegate math. Based on current totals, Hillary Clinton has some catching up to do. Because the results of the TX caucus are still out its not final but she likely only cut into his lead by around 10 delegates (maybe 12, maybe 8). This means, as the Clinton campaign admits, she needs a strong win in Pennsylvania and she needs to convince the remaining super-delegates.

Furthermore I would like urge readers to discredit all claims that Obama would lose Ohio in the general since he lost against Hillary Clinton. According to Survey USA polls, both would fare similarly in Ohio against McCain. There is little statistical data behind any such claim. I would argue that one couldn't get good statistical data on the subject before the convention even if one wanted because of individuals attempt to skew the results in order to make their candidate look better.

I like that so many people comment. I just wish they would spin the polls in favor of the candidate instead of spinning political rhetoric.

Full Disclosure: I am an Obama supporter who would vote for Hillary in the general election.

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