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POLL: Gallup Daily Tracking


Gallup Poll

National
Obama 48, Clinton 45

Also:
Democrats Divided Over How Superdelegates Should Vote
Democrats Favor Compromise on Florida, Michigan Delegates

 

Comments
Adam G:

This really shows that Clinton is circling the drain. When she loses by 25 tonight, her poll numbers nationally will only continue to tank. It's time for her to escape with dignity rather than be disgraced like Gov Spitzer (D-NY).

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Benjamin:

How fascinating is that pattern of the daily tracking poll tightening EVERY TIME right before an Election Day.

And how fascinating noone has reflected on it yet.

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Bob Evans (the real one):

Benjamin you were duped by Billary. No one cares about your trite observations since Adam is right, Billary is tanking and taking your maximum donation $2300 with her in the Lexus! All you are doing by conintuing to support her is feeding her drug addiction, her drug is power and that power is ruining America and the Democratic party. She is just a Republican in pant suits with a racist bigot cheating husband and an ugly daughter. Stop supporting her and stop trolling our boards with your drivel.

GOBAMA!!!!

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akilis:

I have a suggestion. HRC thinks so high of John McCain so she should just form a team with him and create an unstoppable dream ticket. She is nothing more than a republican dedicated to destroy the Democratic party. She would rather see John McCain win if she can't get the nomination. National security experience.. give me a break... I am for McCain/Clinton ticket.. by the way she would never get more than a VP ticket over there too..

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Adam G:

K there may be two Adam G's running about, but I certainly didn't make the 1st comment! Adam G no 2 (or no 1 if you'd like), who are you?

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Bryan :

I'm not quite sure in which interview she stated that she would rather see McCain president than Obama if she were to lose the nomination.

Would you mind posting the link?

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Anonymous:

Bob,
Are you by anyway affiliated with that chain of restaurants throughout the South and Midwest?

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Bryan:

I'm not quite sure how you can assert that Clinton is circling the drain because she loses a state a Democrat hasn't won since 1956 I believe.
Is there some statistical data that affirms a "as Mississippi goes, so goes the nomination" aphorism?

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Andy:

Bob Evans, whoever you are...stop pretending to support Obama. You have never said one positive thing about him. Just trying to split the Democrats.

Bob- Take this time to re-up your membership to the Nazi party, and don't forget your Klan meeting tonight. Trash like you has ruined this site for the rest.....

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Bob Evans (the real one):

akilis knows the score. If Billary luvs McCain so much she ought to join forces with him. Obamba is the right person because he inspires so many across gender race income and age. How can you deny his turn at history when matched up against two old rags like McCain and Billary?

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Jane E.:

Wait-- so many of the comments here are just people expressing their opinion. I know my opinion, I don't need more of them. I'm here to talk polling: math + psychology!

So, Benjamin, I'm interested in your point. Is that true? Is there a statistical way to prove that the effect is more than random chance would predict? If it happens, I wonder what the cause might be? Perhaps more undecideds coming on board late in the process and dulling the extremes? Or... what? Some kind of polling artifact? I'm stumped. I'd love to hear a theory on this!

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Benjamin - I'm not sure I see what you mean about the numbers tightening every time... to me it seems like most of the time they are close enough to be within the margin of error. Am I interpreting this correctly?

I'd be very happy if we could go back to just polling, perhaps with a level headed discussion of message strategy.

I wonder if we could self-police; agree not to make baseless comments or use slurs or insults. And then we can just ignore people who don't behave, and eventually they'll get bored and go away.

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John - Spokane, WA:

Is Bob Evans on Medication ? Maybe he should be.

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John - Spokane, WA:


Dont worry Bryan, I tried to tell some of these guys that Florida & Michigan would be counted in some way AND THEY WILL - They absolutely refused to accept that (They dont talk much about it anymore). Now they're all excited about winning Wyoming & Mississippi, WOW, I've got more delegates in my pocket than those two States have. Bottom line - Obama will continue to pluck off the small States and Hillary will win all the Big ones and in the end she will garner the vast majority of Superdelegates thus overtaking Obama and at the Convention she'll be endorsed by the party - Obama should consider that VP spot, he's young enough and he may learn enough to be Pres by 2016 !

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JMS:
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Ike:

First, let me second Ciccina's sentiment; she is a breath of civility, and she has a cool blog too.

Second, I am posting this here because there is no thread for today's Survey USA poll in Pennsylvania : can somebody tell me how it can be that, in the PA head-to-head matchups, Obama does ever so slightly better than Clinton versus McCain. But in Obama-Clinton matchups in PA, she is 11-15 points ahead. How can this be? How can he be a (slightly) more popular choice versus McCain, but a much less popular choice versus Clinton?

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Uri:

This is about the same results we've been seeing for a month now. Not sure what everyone is yapping about.

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Ike:

First, let me second Ciccina's sentiment; she is a breath of civility, and she has a cool blog too.

Second, I am posting this here because there is no thread for today's Survey USA poll in Pennsylvania : can somebody tell me how it can be that, in the PA head-to-head matchups, Obama does ever so slightly better than Clinton versus McCain. But in Obama-Clinton matchups in PA, she is 11-15 points ahead. How can this be? How can he be a (slightly) more popular choice versus McCain, but a much less popular choice versus Clinton?

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John - Spokane, WA:

Heres why Ike.

PENN is mainly people over 65 - they vote for Hillary. That simple. Same in FL. Not quite as much in MI but enough to go to Hillary again. Thats why she closes the gap in the home stretch and gets the endorsement at the convention since neither will reach the magic number.

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Dave S:

Actually, John -- I wouldn't count on Michigan (if a do-over were to happen) as a "safe" Hillary state. Do remember -- she managed to beat the ever-popular "uncommitted" by a margin barely in the double digits. In other words, almost as many people turned up at the polls to vote for ANYONE BUT HER as did to vote FOR her. Also, the demographics are certainly more favorable for Obama in Michigan than in Florida -- much larger AA population, smaller Latino population, several large college towns (Ann Arbor, etc), and it is adjacent to Wisconsin and Illinois, both states that went strongly for Obama.

My prediction is that if a do-over were to happen, they'd split it, with Clinton winning fairly big in Florida, and Obama winning by 5-10 in Michigan.

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Paul:

John - that is in no way an answer to Ike's question. He raises a very interesting point. The media has been full of the MS exit polls that say Clinton supporters hate Obama more than vice versa, but obviously that isn't the case in PA from these two polls.

PA democrats will vote Democrat regardless and presumably the independents (who aren't voting in the PA primary) will go to Obama in bigger numbers to off-set Clinton's advantage in a prospective GE poll.

MS is obviously a southern state where white Clinton voters are dead set against Obama, but elsewhere the trend won't hold is my guess. A smaller version of the phenomenon amongst elderly women who would desert Obama in the GE in northern states could surely be off-set by the fact that the legion of bitterly anti-Clinton independents (we all know they exist and Monica will be wheeled out to rally them in Sept. if she wins the nomination) who would stay home for a McCain-Obama battle.

That's at least an attempt to answer Ike's very valid question.

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John - Spokane, WA:

Dave - I agree with one thing on Mich., It will be closer than Florida - still Hillary captured the majority of the support over non-committed & others. She wins Mich, just not a huge margin.

Paul - Im not suggesting that PA wont go Dem in the GE, IM talking about Now between hillary & Obama. Between those two, the demo fits Hillary & all the recent polls show that. There's no need to overcomplicate Ike's answer and load it up with a bunch of hypotheticals. If ANDS & BUTS were Candy & NUTS, the World would be a Sweeter & Nutty place ! LOL .

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