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POLL: Gallup Daily Tracking


Gallup Poll

National
Obama 45, Clinton 44... McCain 51, Huckabee 29, Paul 6

Economic Conditions
Poor 34, Excellent/Good 23
Getting worse 80, Getting better 13

 

Comments
Ben Morris:

Has anyone released a poll or subsection of one just for voters from states that still haven't voted?

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Getting worse 80, Getting better 13"

Oh dear god! And to think, McCain said he didn't know much about economics. That's going to hurt him in November.

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roy:

Even if he were Jed Bartlett, it would hurt him as the candidate of the incumbent party. An incumbent-party candidate is in trouble when public opinion keeps him from running on his party's record of managing the economy or foreign policy.

For those who believe in Lichtman's 13 Keys, I think we're up to about 9 strikes against the GOP.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Even if he were Jed Bartlett, it would hurt him as the candidate of the incumbent party."

Took me a second to get that one.

One of my favorite quotes from that show...

Mandy Hampton: Mr. President, if you could also see your way clear to not answering that question like an economics professor with a big old stick up his butt, that would be good too.

President Josiah Bartlet: I am an economics professor with a big old stick up my butt, but I'll do my best for you, there, Mandy.

Speaking of Lichtman...

http://hnn.us/roundup/entries/43453.html

I would like to point out that Lichtman is being generous here.

Key Nine could still happen as there are a number of scandals that could grow again. Hell, there's a significant portion of the population that thinks Bush & Cheney should be impeached.

And I think Obama is Charismatic enough for Key 13 to fall.

As for the uncertain ones, they are all more likely to go against the Republicans than any are to go against the Democrats.

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New poll out - as reported on my blog, Election Inspection, new Quinnipiac polls show Clinton up by 21 in Ohio and 16 in PA. There are general election matchups for both these states as well as Florida, and they show about the same result for Obama and Clinton (resembling the Kerry numbers) except in PA where Hillary gets a regional boost.

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roy:

The Charisma key has always struck me as a bit of a fudge factor, since candidates who win are more likely to be perceived later as having been charismatic. If Obama wins the election, he will probably be regarded as having charisma.

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